Author: moneybags

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Chris Leben

I’m a fan of Akiyama. If you have been reading this site for any length of time you know I back the Judokas. As a former Judoka I feel Judo is a skill in the cage that not many fighters are prepared to face. When you get Judokas of the quality of Akiyama its something that not many can train for. I just picked Leben to beat Simpson a few weeks ago, but I think in this fight, despite my favoritism towards Judo fighters, Leben will lose. For one thing, Leben is not a point fighter. If he doesn’t finish the fight, I don’t recall him winning many decisions. Akiyama on the other hand is a multi-qualified fighter who can go the distance, submit, or TKO guys. The fact that Akiyama beat Alan Belcher in a technical standup fight is incredible in its own right. Some say the fight was closer, but he got a few takedowns as well as doing more damage.

Its completely possible Akiyama gets caught and the fight is over, but in this one I’m picking Akiyama to win.

Chris Lytle vs Matt Brown

Two of the most aggressive fighters who throw caution to the wind.

Standup edge: Matt Brown – Just a better technical striker that can outpoint Lytle due to faster feet and hands.

Ground edge: Chris Lytle – Has fought some pro boxing and has KO power, however, he really wings some punches in such a sloppy manner. He likes to brawl and usually takes 4 punches to land his 1. Lytle has some of the sickest ground submissions winning sub of the night honors several times.

This is guaranteed to be a great fight. I’d pick Chris Lytle here with more ways to win.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar

I like the way Bonnar fights and I dislike the way Soszynski fights. Does Bonnar have enough to beat Soszynski? I don’t see it. Soszynski is like a tank and Bonnar has a slingshot for an arsenal. Bonnar is a grinder and that type of fighter who can’t do detrimental damage to Soszynski plays into his game plan.

I don’t like it, but Soszynski is probably winning this match.

George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino

This is a ground war although Pellegrino is probably the better stand up fighter. However, Sotiropoulos is the lengthier fighter and will have reach if wants to use it.

Excited for this match up and will avoid picking a winner. Its going to a decision imo.

Prelims Show On Spike TV

Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer

Schaub

Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero

Romero will be fighting in the UFC for the first after owning people in the ROC. Petruzelli is a much better striker than Romero is and in past fights of Romero he was the better striker. Romero has a very lazy takedown game that worked on ROC fighters, however, Petruzelli has never been known has a takedown defense wizards. This is a good match up though and should prove to be a very close fight. Likely going to the cards where Petruzelli takes a win on points due to striking.

Kendall Grove vs Goran Reljic

Too much power from the Gorilla (Goran). However, Grove always has a shot on the ground and could land that triangle.

Goran is slightly favored in this match and I’m picking him to win.

No picks on these remaining fights

Gerald Harris vs Dave Branch
Daniel Roberts vs Forrest Petz
Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola

Oh baby this is going to be good. Both guys have excellent wrestling ability and the talent to hold the belt for a long time. Most people out there probably want to see Shane Carwin whip Brock Lesnar’s ass. I certainly do. For the respect of martial arts, for the respect of the sport, for the respect of the cage/mat.

Strengths for Lesnar: Exceptional size, strength, and power. Brock’s power is Hulk like, however, his ability to do stand up damage has shown to be very limited. His best work is in the clinch and on the ground. His speed is also excellent and is one of the most explosive heavyweights, Cain Velasquez is probably the best in that area.

Strengths for Carwin: Boxing ability and SERIOUS KO power. Carwin has many standup knockouts on his resume and has never had a fight get out of the first round. Wrestling, Carwin was also an excellent college wrestler as a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight. Lesnar was the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion at Minnesota. Minnesota is a Div I school and there is a large difference between Div I and Div II wrestling overall, but at the top of the food chain its neck and neck. Despite the better wrestling pedigree of Lesnar, the mma fighters today at the top level have better wrestling skills than they ever had before. I think its a null argument.

Weaknesses for Lesnar: Experience. Despite being an athletic marvel, experience is a huge element in MMA. Lesnar doesn’t have it. Chin. Randy Couture momentarily rocked Lesnar in their fight. If Carwin hits Lesnar its going to be a lot worse than Couture’s punches who of which was never known as a KO puncher.

Weaknesses for Carwin: Not too many. I haven’t seen his conditioning come into play, but this is an unknown and if it makes it out of the first round, we don’t know how Carwin will be. I’m sure he will be fine with the camp he trains with as it is considering one of the top 3 camps in the game right now.

My take: The wrestling ability will likely cancel each other out. Carwin’s technical/power ability is better than Lesnar’s. However, Lesnar is faster than Carwin. Initially this will give Carwin problems, but as the fight goes on and Lesnar makes a single mistake in punching range, I think Carwin TKOs Lesnar. If the fight goes the distance, I think Lesnar can outpoint Carwin with takedowns and Octagon control. Lesnar is smart enough to know that he does not want to stand against Carwin as that his strongest skill.

I’m picking Carwin to win because he is the underdog, has better striking, plus I just want Carwin to win for the respect of the sport.

This was a good season had lots of good matches and of course the usual drama. With Tito Ortiz pulling out of the final fight, Dana booted him off the show and Rich Franklin came in to coach the last fight. His fighter won and coincidentally Franklin beat Chuck in their match a few days ago.

Kris McCray vs Court McGee

My knowledge of these TUF fighters is so little its difficult to make predictions.

Kris McCray’s striking wasn’t that impressive, but his wrestling and throws were. Court McGee can do some severe damage on the ground and was fairly good at the submissions as well.

Both guys seemed equally tough, but if I had to decide between these two I’m picking Court McGhee.

Sportsbook.com has Court McGee -200 Kris McCray +160

Matt Hamill vs Keith Jardine

Hamill has more than enough skills to get Jardine to the ground. However, Hamill’s footwork is not good enough to avoid Jardine’s big leg kicks nor is his head movement.

However, if Hamill gets Jardine on the ground, Hamill has big power in that position and I think Jardine will likely be fighting from his back for the rest of that round. First Hamill has to get Jardine down there though and by the third round I’m predicting his legs are so battered that he won’t be able to get the takedown at all.

Therefore, due to strikes and activity, I like Keith Jardine in this fight.

Intertops has Keith Jardine +115 and Matt Hamill -150, while Sportsbook.com has Matt Hamill -150 Keith Jardine +120

Chris Leben vs Aaron Simpson

Hard puncher Leben taking on the great wrestler and all around tough guy, Aaron Simpson. Leben’s weakest part of his game is his ground game or at least was in his past. I haven’t seen him in awhile so maybe he has focused on that.

Simpson is just all around tough, but definitely takes big punishment in most of his fights like he did against Tom Lawlor. His head movement is not that good, but Simpson is good everywhere else. However, you have the KO power of Leben against a guy who doesn’t mind taking hits. Both of these fighters have very tough chins. I’d give the standup edge to Leben, but the speed advantage will clearly go to Simpson.

Intertops has Simpson as a -350 favorite with Leben at +250. I think Simpson is most likely to win as well, but with the odds, I think Leben is not that far off from catching Simpson with one of his hooks. I don’t want to pick one here.

Sportsbook.com has Aaron Simpson at -340 and Chris Leben at +260

Spencer Fisher vs Denis Siver

Intertops has Siver at +145 and Spencer Fisher at -185. I actually like Siver in this fight. Fisher isn’t likely to KO Siver, but Siver has the power to do some serious damage. Not to mention his wrestling is pretty good as well. I think he will be the bigger fighter in this match as well. I don’t know why, but I like Siver here. I normally pick him to lose and lost he has. This match has the potential to be fight of the night as Spencer always puts on a show and Siver has always been in every fight.

Sportsbook.com has Spencer Fisher at -175 and Dennis Siver at +145

Jamie Yager vs Rich Attonito

Rich Attonito. Too much ground skill for Yager.

Sportsbook.com has Jamie Yager -135 Rich Attonito +105

John Gunderson vs Mark Holst

Not familiar with Holst, however, Gunderson is good. I like Gunderson in the dark.

John Gunderson -285 Mark Holst +225

Brad Tavares vs Seth Baczynski

I like Baczynski here.

Sportsbook.com has Brad Tavares -240 Seth Baczynski +190

Kyle Noke vs Josh Bryant

I like Josh Bryant here.

Sportsbook.com has Kyle Noke -200 Josh Bryant +160

James Hammortree vs Chris Camozzi

I like Camozzi here.

Sportsbook.com has James Hammortree even Chris Camozzi -130

James McSweeney vs Travis Browne

Not familiar with Travis Browne, but I’m taking the British Kickboxer, McSweeney in the dark here.