Oh baby this is going to be good. Both guys have excellent wrestling ability and the talent to hold the belt for a long time. Most people out there probably want to see Shane Carwin whip Brock Lesnar’s ass. I certainly do. For the respect of martial arts, for the respect of the sport, for the respect of the cage/mat.
Strengths for Lesnar: Exceptional size, strength, and power. Brock’s power is Hulk like, however, his ability to do stand up damage has shown to be very limited. His best work is in the clinch and on the ground. His speed is also excellent and is one of the most explosive heavyweights, Cain Velasquez is probably the best in that area.
Strengths for Carwin: Boxing ability and SERIOUS KO power. Carwin has many standup knockouts on his resume and has never had a fight get out of the first round. Wrestling, Carwin was also an excellent college wrestler as a two-time NCAA Division II Wrestling National Runner-Up Heavyweight. Lesnar was the 2000 NCAA heavyweight champion at Minnesota. Minnesota is a Div I school and there is a large difference between Div I and Div II wrestling overall, but at the top of the food chain its neck and neck. Despite the better wrestling pedigree of Lesnar, the mma fighters today at the top level have better wrestling skills than they ever had before. I think its a null argument.
Weaknesses for Lesnar: Experience. Despite being an athletic marvel, experience is a huge element in MMA. Lesnar doesn’t have it. Chin. Randy Couture momentarily rocked Lesnar in their fight. If Carwin hits Lesnar its going to be a lot worse than Couture’s punches who of which was never known as a KO puncher.
Weaknesses for Carwin: Not too many. I haven’t seen his conditioning come into play, but this is an unknown and if it makes it out of the first round, we don’t know how Carwin will be. I’m sure he will be fine with the camp he trains with as it is considering one of the top 3 camps in the game right now.
My take: The wrestling ability will likely cancel each other out. Carwin’s technical/power ability is better than Lesnar’s. However, Lesnar is faster than Carwin. Initially this will give Carwin problems, but as the fight goes on and Lesnar makes a single mistake in punching range, I think Carwin TKOs Lesnar. If the fight goes the distance, I think Lesnar can outpoint Carwin with takedowns and Octagon control. Lesnar is smart enough to know that he does not want to stand against Carwin as that his strongest skill.
I’m picking Carwin to win because he is the underdog, has better striking, plus I just want Carwin to win for the respect of the sport.