UFC On Fox 2 Betting Picks Recap

The picks from Saturday’s Evans vs Davis fight card went 5-3. Winners: Evans Sonnen Weidman Dunham Russow Losers: Roop -1 Roller -1 Beltran -1 Picks coming for the Condit / Diaz card tonight

The picks from Saturday’s Evans vs Davis fight card went 5-3.

Winners:
Evans
Sonnen
Weidman
Dunham
Russow

Losers:
Roop -1
Roller -1
Beltran -1

Picks coming for the Condit / Diaz card tonight.

UFC on Fox Evans vs Davis

Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs Phil Davis Rashad Evans based on the standup game. Davis should have reach and the wrestling might be a hair better. However, the standup of Evans is better as well as the experience factor. Rashad has been in many big fights while Davis hasn’t. Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping vs

Light Heavyweight bout: Rashad Evans vs Phil Davis

Rashad Evans based on the standup game. Davis should have reach and the wrestling might be a hair better.
However, the standup of Evans is better as well as the experience factor. Rashad has been in many big fights while Davis hasn’t.

Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping vs Chael Sonnen

Not even a question in my mind. Sonnen.

Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs Chris Weidman

Weidman is a rising star. With wrestling credentials and strong GnP. Maia has gotten a lot better on the feet and his ground game needs no introduction. Weidman is at last check a blue belt in jiu jitsu and Maia is like a 7th dan black belt if it existed. I gotta pick Weidman here. I think he is going to get on top and is too strong to not get triangled or submitted anywhere. Weidman trains with Matt Serra so he will be prepared as much as possible. Of course that isn’t enough to prepare for Maia, but it will be enough to either get his TKO win or decision.

Preliminary card (Fuel TV)

Lightweight bout: Evan Dunham vs Nik Lentz

I’ve picked Lentz the last 3 and it hasn’t worked, I think Dunham wins.

Heavyweight bout: Mike Russow vs John-Olav Einemo

Russow. Tough guy.

Bantamweight bout: Johnny Bedford vs Mitch Gagnon

Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson vs George Roop

Roop – the reach.

Featherweight bout: Charles Oliveira vs Eric Wisely

Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Shane Roller

Shane Roller.

Heavyweight bout: Joey Beltran vs Lavar Johnson

Beltran because he can walk through anything and has cardio. Johnson might hit harder, but he gets tired.

Middleweight bout: Chris Camozzi vs Dustin Jacoby

UFC 142 Predictions Aldo vs Mendes

Featherweight Championship: José Aldo (champion) vs Chad Mendes It’s cliche at this point as any opponent that a champion faces next should be his toughest opponent to date, but truly Mendes poses the biggest threat Aldo has faced yet. Toughest opponent in terms of winning, not in damage. See Mendes is a wrestler who likes

Featherweight Championship: José Aldo (champion) vs Chad Mendes

It’s cliche at this point as any opponent that a champion faces next should be his toughest opponent to date, but truly Mendes poses the biggest threat Aldo has faced yet. Toughest opponent in terms of winning, not in damage. See Mendes is a wrestler who likes to the control the fight and kill clock from the top side. He has won 80% of the time via decision and always by decision against top competition. Conditioning has never been a problem in any fight I’ve seen. He likes to control the pace tiring out his opponents in typical wrestler fashion.

Aldo will have problems that he didn’t have against Faber. While Aldo was able to keep a takedown-timid Faber away with leg kicks, Mendes is much more risk taking and will walk through some strikes to get his take down. Its everything to Mendes.

Aldo will be on his back, the question will be for how long. The likelihood of Mendes controlling all 5 rounds against one of the best fighters in all of MMA is going to be tough, but I think Mendes can squeak out 3 of them.

Aldo has closed 12 out of 20 fights before the 3rd round. He is a great striker and great jiujitsu player too. His wrestling has gotten better for sure. One thing though is that he has taken his last few fights the distance, but won the decision in all. He was recently injured too, maybe this is part of it.

Mendes here at roughly +200 is decent value.

Middleweight bout: Vitor Belfort vs Anthony Johnson

Will the length be the problem for Belfort? Johnson makes a huge weight cut to make every fight. Belfort needs to get back on the winning side. Both fighters are excellent strikers and have ended fights in the 1st round on more than 5 occasions.

Odds have this as a pickem. If you can find Johnson in the underdog at your favorite bookmaker take it. Johnson is bigger and lengthier.

Middleweight bout: Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Massenzio

Rousimar Palhares. The style matchup favors Palhares. Fight is going to be on the ground and that is where Palhares lives.

Welterweight bout: Erick Silva vs Carlo Prater

No pick, but odds are crazy skewed for Silva. Prater is too risky to place anything on as he is up and down.

Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza vs Terry Etim

Barboza despite Etim’s rising star. Etim hasn’t been tested by a Barboza like fighter.

Preliminary card (FX)

Lightweight bout: Thiago Tavares vs Sam Stout

Should be a great matchup.

Heavyweight bout: Gabriel Gonzaga vs Ednaldo Oliveira

I don’t know enough or seen Ednaldo to make a call. At a cursory look, he’s 6’7″ and a shitload of tko’s on his record. Gonzaga is always good for taking a big beating or dishing one out of his own. Oliveira looks dangerous though. Passing.

Featherweight bout: Yuri Alcantara vs Michihiro Omigawa

This fight is going Yuri’s way.

Welterweight bout: Ricardo Funch vs Mike Pyle

Pyle. Aside from Rory MacDonald loss, Pyle has shown a much better skillset and has improved his weak points.

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Featherweight bout: Felipe Arantes vs Antonio Carvalho

Pass

UFC 141 Predictions

Main card for Lesnar vs Overeem UFC 141 Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem First thoughts are Overeem – EASILY. Lesnar has shown to have a rather large glass jaw when it comes to heavyweight punchers – but who doesn’t really? One clip from anyone that big and its over. Lesnar’s best chance is

Main card for Lesnar vs Overeem UFC 141

Heavyweight bout: Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem

First thoughts are Overeem – EASILY. Lesnar has shown to have a rather large glass jaw when it comes to heavyweight punchers – but who doesn’t really? One clip from anyone that big and its over. Lesnar’s best chance is obviously getting this fight to the ground. Utilize the wrestling skills to tire Overeem out. The problem is Overeem’s take down defense is better than decent as it was displayed against Fabricio Werdum, Lesnar would be a fool to stand with Overeem and there is no chance that strategy is going to happen. Lesnar gets Overeem to the ground and this fight could go Lesnar’s way really quick, but Lesnar better not go for the double as Alistair has a ridiculously strong guillotine. Lesnar needs to take single shots and drag Overeem down or trip him.

Once in full or half guard, Brock on top is a problem for any heavyweight.

I think you have to decide will Overeem catch Lesnar coming in, or will Lesnar be able to drag Overeem down and keep him there for each round – maybe even getting the TKO.

5 rounds gives Overeem ample opportunity, in his UFC debut, to catch Lesnar somewhere with a K-1 level strike via elbow against the cage maybe? That cracks the glass of Lesnar.

My prediction Round 2 TKO Overeem. As long as the odds don’t go Jon Jones or Anderson Silvaish.

Lightweight bout: Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone

Love the Diaz brothers, but in this one I think Cerrone brings too much firepower and speed. If this fight goes to the ground its going to look like an instructional video. Cerrone.

Welterweight bout: Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks

Guessing the odds are close for this fight. Fitch doesn’t posess the power that Hendricks has and I think the wrestling is probably going to be pretty nulled between the two of them. Fitch has MUCH more experience in big fights though and cardio has always been of Kenyan marathoner quality. Hendricks carries more muscle and could tire quicker giving Fitch the late rounds submission.

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafsson

Tough call as I want to root for the old dog The Janitor Matyushenko, but Gustafsson is one of the best unknowns in the division. Taking Gustafsson because he is great with submissions – long legs – and Vladi is going to want to take Alex to the ground. Alex is also way better on the feet. Odds probably favor Alex here, haven’t seen them yet.

Featherweight bout: Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes

Can’t go against Nam Phan – he’s awesome.

UFC 141 Preliminary card (televised)

Featherweight bout: Ross Pearson vs Junior Assunção

Ross Pearson – too much standup skills. Assuncao though on the ground will have big advantage, but he likes to standup – weird.

Lightweight bout: Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo

Njokuani

UFC 141 Preliminary card untelevised

Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson

I can’t go against Dong Hyun Kim.

Lightweight bout: Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero

Volkmann is much better than he looks. Escudero is going to come out furious though to try and get back in the UFC.

Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle vs Luis Ramos

pass

Featherweight bout: Manvel Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes

Interesting fight. Nunes is pretty damn good fighter and hasn’t really had a chance to display it since his loss to Kenny Florian. I think Nunes here will win decision. If not Manny is always good for a surprise KO victory. However, I’m going smart and picking Nunes.

Strikeforce Melendez vs Masvidal

Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez (c) vs Jorge Masvidal Awesome fight and a lot of people have Melendez winning this easily. THIS WILL NOT be an easy fight. Masvidal has shown to have submissions, power, and the speed to apply either or rather quickly. The one nut in this bowl is that Melendez has been

Lightweight Championship bout: Gilbert Melendez (c) vs Jorge Masvidal

Awesome fight and a lot of people have Melendez winning this easily. THIS WILL NOT be an easy fight. Masvidal has shown to have submissions, power, and the speed to apply either or rather quickly. The one nut in this bowl is that Melendez has been absolutely sharp as a tack with his last few fights. He has stepped up his striking ability to considerable levels.

Intertops has Masvidal at +265 and Melendez at -370. I think Masvidal’s chances of submitting Melendez are about 1%. Going against the Diaz brothers and Jake Shields you can basically assume Melendez submission escape ability is off the charts. However, Masvidal, has the hands to put anyone down in the division. Masvidal has competed in a professional boxing match.

I’m picking Melendez to win, but if you ever wanted to play a dog in an upset, Masvidal is the best option on this card.

Women’s Featherweight Championship bout: Cristiane Santos (c) vs Hiroko Yamanaka

Santos will win, but Yamanaka will surprise with a decent fight imo. Maybe beyond 2nd round is good here.

Light Heavyweight bout: Gegard Mousasi vs. Haiti Ovince St. Preux

Gergard has too much experience and skillset is greater. St Preux has a shot due to being the stronger fighter though, but Mousasi is too skilled.

Lightweight bout: KJ Noons vs Billy Evangelista

KJ Noons

Preliminary card

Welterweight bout: Jerron Peoples vs Roger Bowling

Roger Bowling

Lightweight bout: Caros Fodor vs Justin Wilcox

Heavyweight bout: Devin Cole vs Gabriel Salinas-Jones

Light Heavyweight bout: Fernando Gonzalez vs Eddie Mendez

Welterweight bout: Herman Terrado vs Chris Brown

UFC 140 Predictions

Main Card Predictions Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs Lyoto Machida Love both these guys. The patience of Machida will probably give Jon Jones a little bit of trouble for the first round. However, I don’t think there is much that Machida can do against the elusive Jones. The best chance Machida has

Main Card Predictions

Light Heavyweight Championship bout: Jon Jones (c) vs Lyoto Machida

Love both these guys. The patience of Machida will probably give Jon Jones a little bit of trouble for the first round. However, I don’t think there is much that Machida can do against the elusive Jones. The best chance Machida has at winning this fight is being Jon Jones Guard and landing long punches. I hope the odds are too far apart on this one. I like Jon Jones winning this one pretty much no matter what. If the odds are like -600 though, I might take Machida.

Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira

A rematch that Mir won the first time. I think this back to being a toss up again as Nogueira was sick with the flu last time they fought. If the odds are ridiculously skewed in favor of Mir, I like Nogueira to win. Otherwise if its close go with Mir.

Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira

Tito ain’t KOing Nogueira on the feet so imo that will give Nogueira time to work his championship level boxing. Ortiz’ best shot at winning this is obviously one way. The double leg > GnP. However, he is going against a Nogueira. So in that position you have to worry about being armbarred. The two brothers have some of the best armbars in the game. Nogueira’s boxing is much much better than Tito’s. I like Nogueira winning this, but I’ve been finding myself rooting for Tito in his last few fights. Maybe its the nostalgic fan in me. I used to dislike Tito all those years he fought before his stint on the TUF show, before he came back for the first Ken Shamrock fight, but these days I’m a fan. I think Nogueira has the right skillset to give Ortiz problems. I see little Nog taking a decision. Cardio could be Ortiz ace in the hole in this one though.

Welterweight bout: Claude Patrick vs Brian Ebersole

Ebersole. There are only a few people in the division that can beat him right now.

Featherweight bout: Mark Hominick vs Chan Sung Jung

Awesome fight potential, but I lean towards Hominick here. Sung Jung is wild and Hominick is crisp and tight. Big advantage for Hominick.

Preliminary card (Ion Television)

Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs Igor Pokrajac

Soszynski will likely win being bigger and better on the ground. I like the way Igor fights though.

Middleweight bout: Jared Hamman vs Constantinos Philippou

Hamman is the guy that presses and he doesn’t look like hes tough or a fighter, but hes got skills. I expect him to win then sell you a computer when its over.

Lightweight bout: John Makdessi vs Dennis Hallman

One thing you can count on here is that Hallman won’t be wearing a mankini. Only prediction to be made here.

Bantamweight bout: Yves Jabouin vs Walel Watson

Preliminary card

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs Nik Lentz

I want to see this fight. Bocek has been a monster lately, but Nik Lentz is always fun to watch and has some good skills. On the ground though Bocek has distinct advantage.

Welterweight bout: Rich Attonito vs Jake Hecht

Lightweight bout: Mitch Clarke vs John Cholish