UFC 152 Jones vs. Belfort: Has the Light Heavyweight Division Lost Its Luster?

Once possibly the deepest division in the UFC, the light heavyweight division is now but a puddle. The fact that the UFC is flying in middleweight Vitor Belfort to fight Jon Jones attests to this. Yes. I know. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Lyoto…

Once possibly the deepest division in the UFC, the light heavyweight division is now but a puddle.

The fact that the UFC is flying in middleweight Vitor Belfort to fight Jon Jones attests to this.

Yes. I know.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Ryan Bader are all good fighters. The fact that Jones beat all of them within a year did not magically make them bad.

Jones’ feverish pace, indeed, is the main reason the UFC found itself in such an awkward position with finding light heavyweight contenders. Even if Henderson did not get injured, the promotion faced a tough sell when it came to convincing fans to buy into Lyoto Machida’s chances against Jones, who beat him with a shocking standing guillotine choke at UFC 140.

All that aside, the UFC light heavyweight division is in dire straits, and there is no end in sight. Most of the division’s modern mainstays are close to retirement.

Rua looked nothing like the soccer-kicking demon he was in Pride when he struggled to deal with a slow, clunky Brandon Vera. Dan Henderson is over 40 years old, and there is no getting around that fact. “Rampage” Jackson is downright aching to leave the UFC. Forrest Griffin had Dana White wishing he would call it a career a matter of weeks ago.

Tito Ortiz is gone. Randy Couture is gone. Chuck Liddell is gone. Stephan Bonnar is going. Matt Hamill is just coming back. Rich Franklin and Wanderlei Silva are in the middleweight division. Keith Jardine and Houston Alexander were exposed and then cut from the promotion.

Gloomy, no?

It gets worse. There are glaring problems with the current crop of “prospects” that are supposed to become the future of the division.

Ryan Bader getting downright demolished by Lyoto Machida shows that he has hit his ceiling. Phil Davis has shown little but solid wrestling in his UFC career to this point. Glover Teixeira, though his limits remain unknown, is 32 years old and is likely as good as he will ever be (but, to reiterate, how good he is remains to be seen).

The division, right now, has just one true championship-caliber prospect in Alexander Gustafsson. Though brimming with potential, he is at least two more wins away from truly entering the title picture.

Then, to top everything else off, two of the last remaining light heavyweight contenders, Evans and Machida, are potentially moving down to middleweight.

Yes, Chael Sonnen is joining the division. That, though exciting and likely to generate a championship bout, is simply not enough to mask the fact that the light heavyweight division will be almost empty in the next year or two.

So now, here we are. All these things have fallen into place, such that UFC 152 is going to be topped with Vitor Belfort fighting outside his native weight class. Belfort has been on the outside looking in on the middleweight title picture for a long while. Now, though, he is going to face Jon Jones because, simply, they had no other choice.

With that, it is hard to deny that what was the most intriguing division in the UFC now has very little to be excited about.

There are no title contenders. There are almost no prospects. There are no rivalries that have not already been played out.

So has the light heavyweight division lost its luster? Yes. Now, it is just more obvious than ever.

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UFC 151 Cancellation: More Twitter Reactions from Fighters

Fellow columnist Tim McTiernan wrote a great piece just a few hours ago detailing the immediate reactions from fighters when it came to the news of UFC 151’s sudden cancellation. Now that the dust has settled and the news has spread, a great many more …

Fellow columnist Tim McTiernan wrote a great piece just a few hours ago detailing the immediate reactions from fighters when it came to the news of UFC 151‘s sudden cancellation.

Now that the dust has settled and the news has spread, a great many more fighters are chiming in both in support of and against Jon Jones.

One of the most vocal, and well-regarded, supporters of Jones’ decision so far has been lightweight champion Ben Henderson.

“Bendo” is not the only fighter supporting Jones. Add Roy Nelson, “King” Mo Lawal and Josh Barnett to that list.

Naturally, some fighters are making light of the situation.

Other fighters, like Urijah Faber, are expressing sympathy for the undercard fighters while avoiding criticisms of Jones.

However, the majority of reactions have been substantially less-accepting (and not especially funny).

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Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman’s Poor Production Shows Why It Is Behind UFC

Strikeforce has always played second fiddle to the UFC in the United States. It is an unfortunate fact that is based on many things ranging from from its fighters to its venues. Whether it is the Strikeforce: Nashville post-fight brawl between Cesar Gr…

Strikeforce has always played second fiddle to the UFC in the United States. It is an unfortunate fact that is based on many things ranging from from its fighters to its venues.

Whether it is the Strikeforce: Nashville post-fight brawl between Cesar Gracie’s team and Jason “Mayhem” Miller or Gilbert Melendez fighting random hobos they find sleeping in the streets of San Jose (I know, it is not actually THAT bad, but you get the point), UFC diehards are quick to dismiss Strikeforce for a variety of reasons.

Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman gives that group yet another reason to be dismissive of the promotion.

The event looked downright amateurish on television, with a non-stop stream of unintentionally hilarious problems.

It is easy to dwell on Strikeforce’s bad commentary. The old saying, of course, is “too many cooks spoil the soup.” With a mandatory three-man crew holding microphones, Mauro Ranallo, Frank Shamrock and Pat Miletich often end up fighting for the chance to deliver soundbites as obviously as the men in the cage are fighting for a win.

Commentating, though, is really hard. Even UFC duos Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg, and Kenny Florian and Jon Anik fail to please everyone.

Focusing in on that would be a true disservice to the wackiness fans saw in this event.

Not all the problems were under Strikeforce’s control. Mike Beltran’s half-beard, half-Fu Manchu hybrid is not something to knock them for. Neither is the “hurry it along” attitude he had with groin shots. Neither is his EliteXC-style willingness to threaten fighters with standing things up while they worked for submissions.

Similarly, it is hard to criticize the promotion itself for the questionable job done by everyone’s favorite referee, Herb Dean, who prematurely ended a bout between Adlan Amagov and Keith Berry after a front kick to Berry’s knee had the commentators screaming.

Bad refereeing, after all, happens in the UFC, too. So what can you point a finger at and say “bad job” to Strikeforce about?

Well, awkward camera angles for one. The first main card bout of the night, between Ovince St. Preux and TJ Cook went to the ground only a couple times. Unfortunately for the production team, the always-important camera that hovers over the cage to let fans see the ground work had a well-placed cable dead-center over the fighters in the second round.

Producers were quick to change angles, but even so, later in the fight, that cord got far more screen time than it should have.

That on its own would not a big deal. Unfortunately, the miscues did not end there.

The next fight, between Lumumba Sayers and Anthony Smith, had a problem that the fighters actually noticed. Smith entered to his walkout music, stripped, and the staff gave him the usual pre-fight treatment. No problem yet.

Sayers, though, was shoved into the arena prematurely. He walked to the cage as slowly as he possibly could, but still arrived right in the middle of Smith’s pat-down and face-greasing. He awkwardly stood behind and waited his turn as Ranallo and Shamrock yukked it up.

Neither of these things marred the fights, though. Strikeforce was totally on-point with that, right?

Well, actually, whoever is in charge of the mat over at Strikeforce coated it with pudding before things kicked off. Fighters slid around with alarming frequency.

This, too, was joked about by the trio of analysts. Perhaps more than it should have been, given how it was entirely possible that it could lead to fight-altering slip.

Make no mistake. Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman was an all-around solid event that delivered more than a few exciting finishes.

That said, Strikeforce is probably the second-biggest MMA promotion in the world. Showtime is no newbie when it comes to being the maestro of fighting events.

How the hell did so many little things things go wrong?

Back in 2010, I watched Eric “Butterbean” Esch’s Moosin: God of Martial Arts event headlined by at-the-time fatty Tim Sylvia and Polish strongman Mariusz Pudzianowski. If you played them side-by-side, you likely would not guess that tonight’s Strikeforce event was the one done on the dime of a major commercial broadcasting network.

While it was a solid batch of fights, the wide variety of problems ended up adding more ammo to the belt of Strikeforce’s naysayers. Once again, some of this was out of their control.

Either way, there is no getting around the fact that I found myself laughing more times here than I have with any UFC event I can remember. UFC events, by the way, are the ones that almost always have a stand-up comedian front-and-center.

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Strikeforce: Would a Ronda Rousey Loss Spell Doom for the Promotion?

Oct. 4, 2008. BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla. More than 4.5 million people tuning in to CBS to watch an MMA event from Showtime’s early, half-cocked foray into the sport. This confusing alliance with the entertainment company (and on-again, off-ag…

Oct. 4, 2008. BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla.

More than 4.5 million people tuning in to CBS to watch an MMA event from Showtime’s early, half-cocked foray into the sport. This confusing alliance with the entertainment company (and on-again, off-again MMA promotion) ProElite was known to the masses as EliteXC.

EliteXC became both famous and infamous to fight fans for its time slinging heavy-handed YouTube star Kimbo Slice to the drunken masses. Sure, they had other fights. Sure, they had actual fighters on their roster like Nick Diaz, Jake Shields, Antonio Silva and many more.

Kimbo Slice, though, was their bread and butter and they made no apologies about that. They made money off him, and he made money off them. They helped each other where they could.

On that October night, where Kimbo Slice’s bout with porcelain-chinned UFC veteran Ken Shamrock got scrapped very shortly before it was to take place, both sides figured they were doing the other a favor.

Slice chose to fight whatever can they threw in front of him and the promotion figured they had an easy win in TUF2 washout Seth Petruzelli, a light heavyweight who was supposed to fight Aaron Rosa that same night.

The rest is history. Petruzelli knocked out Slice. The straight right that put Slice onto all fours was as much a knockout blow to EliteXC, who closed doors about a month later amidst an investigation into whether promotional brass were trying to massage Slice’s chances of winning. It was an ugly day all around.

Strikeforce has numerous similarities to EliteXC. Not in the allegations of crookedness, mind you. Strikeforce has never had the sort of controversies that marred nearly every major event staged by EliteXC.

 

Strikeforce, like EliteXC before it, has made a practice of putting too many eggs into the basket of one of its top fighters. Strikeforce has gotten away with this for a while now as they, unlike Elite XC, have effectively groomed talent (and gotten some lucky breaks as well), which has kept a replacement star handy at all times.

Early on, it was the Shamrock brothers and Cung Le. Then Nick Diaz and Gilbert Melendez rose to the top. Then was the fast rise and faster fall of Gina Carano. Then came the Fedor Emelianenko era. Now? Strikeforce can be accurately labeled as “that group that Ronda Rousey fights for.”

Yes, Strikeforce still has some quality fighters. It still has Gilbert Melendez. It has Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett. It picked up longtime UFC contender Nate Marquardt. Still, Strikeforce is the Ronda Rousey show.

With Rousey’s first fight since becoming an A-list personality set for this Saturday, Strikeforce bigwig Scott Coker’s stomach is undoubtedly in knots.

He knows Strikeforce’s future with Showtime is only secure through 2012. He knows that the UFC’s light heavyweight and middleweight divisions are downright aching for new talent like Gegard Mousasi, Luke Rockhold and Lorenz Larkin.

He knows that Dana White is lusting over the idea of setting up fights like Gilbert Melendez vs. Ben Henderson and a heavyweight title eliminator featuring Daniel Cormier vs. Alistair Overeem.

He knows that if Ronda Rousey loses, there are very few reasons for both the UFC and Showtime to keep Strikeforce around. Worst of all, he knows that there is a very good chance that Rousey’s opponent, Sarah Kaufman, will win this fight.

 

While Rousey has an incredible amount of skill, best demonstrated by her Olympic bronze medal in judo, she undeniably has holes in her game. The fight that propelled her into stardom and offered her the springboard she used to jump to ESPN The Magazine‘s “The Body Issue” and a seat next to Conan O’Brien was a championship bout with Miesha Tate.

Though Rousey won with an elbow-snapping armbar in the first round, Rousey displayed awkward, tentative striking when the two were upright. Kaufman has some of the best kickboxing in women’s MMA, and actually started her career with eight straight knockouts.

Though the lone loss on her record is an armbar at the hands of Marloes Coenen, she has solid submission defense and good stamina. Though Rousey is strongly favored going into the fight this will be, at the very least, a very tough test for her.

Not one of those Jon Jones vs. Dan Henderson “tough” tests. No, Sarah Kaufman has the striking to knock Rousey out and the stamina to take a decision.

With Strikeforce’s inability to draw strong gate numbers, and the UFC looking for excuses to finally give it the ax, a Rousey loss could easily be the final nail in the coffin for the California-based promotion.

It is worth pointing out that Strikeforce, its individual fighters and Showtime are all so contractually intertwined that somebody of this writer’s pay grade would not be able to decipher what legal hoops there are to jump through if the UFC intends to absorb Strikeforce in full.

However, there is little doubt as to whether the UFC would prefer to have Gilbert Melendez and Daniel Cormier on their roster. Meanwhile, there would be little reason for Showtime to keep Strikeforce around if it was not as profitable as re-airing semi-popular movies like Powder or Honey, I Blew Up the Kid.

That, ultimately, is what this boils down to.

It is no secret that one loss can destroy an MMA career, and it can easily derail the Ronda Rousey Gravy Train. It happened before with EliteXC. It could very easily happen again this Saturday to Strikeforce.

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Henderson vs. Edgar II: Numbers Don’t Lie, Say This Was No Robbery

I love statistics. Love them. I love fantasy sports. I love reading about the economy. I love reading about sales figures for video games. I love anything that can be quantified and contrasted with something else. So naturally, I love looking at number…

I love statistics. Love them.

I love fantasy sports. I love reading about the economy. I love reading about sales figures for video games. I love anything that can be quantified and contrasted with something else.

So naturally, I love looking at numbers from CompuStrike and FightMetric when it comes to controversial decisions.

Not coincidentally, we had a pretty controversial decision last weekend with Ben Henderson getting the better end of a razor-thin split decision over Frankie Edgar.

In the fallout, a number of my Bleacher Report compatriots have started playing the numbers game when it comes to the decision. You can check out the official stats here (via FightMetric).

The numbers, obviously, are extremely close. Sixty-six total strikes for Edgar compared to 62 for Henderson. Deeper analysis of those metrics can go either way (Henderson landed more power shots and strikes to the head total, Edgar landed more total strikes in three of five rounds, etc.).

What that breaks down to, precisely, is that people are nitpicking and arguing over two or three strikes per round. Literally. Two or three strikes. When you’re trying to make something big out of the teeniest, tiniest details, it is time to step back and realize that things are sometimes simply too close to call.

The numbers, ultimately, agree with that particular sentiment more than any other. Far too many are saying Edgar was robbed and are pointing to the numbers as evidence. The thing is, compared to past controversial decisions, Henderson vs. Edgar II is simply not in the same ballpark according to the tallies.

Take, for example, UFC 104’s Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. That fight, like this one, had many up in arms about the decision, which was unanimously in favor of Machida. Machida vs. Rua, though, actually looked the part of a bad decision on-paper.

While Edgar vs. Henderson, once again, had 66 strikes to 62 in favor of Edgar, Machida vs. Rua I had 82 strikes landed by Rua against 42 by Machida. If my math is right, 40 is a lot more than four. What’s more, Rua landed more hits per round in all five rounds.

Other notorious decisions are similarly lopsided on paper. The first bout between Leonard Garcia and Nam Phan had 102 strikes landed by Phan against 64 by Garcia. That, obviously, is also substantially more lopsided than 66 to 62.

Looking back further to UFC 75, Matt Hamill landed 88 strikes to Michael Bisping’s 62, and also had six takedowns to his credit. Again, Hammill ended up losing out on the score cards when he clearly outworked Bisping by a greater statistical margin than UFC 150‘s headline.

These decisions are held among the worst in the history of the sport and, clearly, the statistics actually back that up. Statistics, though useful in further investigating fights, are by no means the be-all and end-all determinant of a winner.

It is worth pointing out that there have been a few fights that had bad decisions on paper, but generated little to no outcry.

Looking strictly at the numbers, Kenny Florian should be the current UFC featherweight champion, as he landed more significant strikes against Jose Aldo in three of five rounds, and more total strikes in four of five rounds when they fought at UFC 136.

Similarly, in the opening round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix, Fabricio Werdum actually landed more significant strikes than Alistair Overeem in two of three rounds, and landed more total strikes in all three.

Taking all these into consideration, labeling Henderson vs. Edgar II a “robbery” based on the numbers is not really accurate. In past controversial decisions, the numbers have been clearly skewed in favor of the loser.

The numbers, in reality, suggest what everyone acknowledges: The fight was very, very close on the whole, and even closer round by round.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a big Benson Henderson fan, but I also had the fight scored three rounds to two in favor of Edgar going into the announcement (Rounds 2, 4 and 5 for Edgar, 1 and 3 for Henderson).

The thing is, even among those crying that Edgar was robbed, there is no consensus on which rounds Edgar won (assuming they are saying he won three rounds, of course).

Looking at the numbers, I can see why judges would score the fight in favor of Henderson. After all, there were three very close rounds, and the old mantra “to be the champ, you’ve got to beat the champ” makes it clear where the edge should go, and the edge almost always goes that way.

One of the few times it did not was at UFC 112 where Frankie Edgar faced off with then-champion B.J. Penn who, according to FightMetric, should have kept his belt. Such, though, is the nature of leaving it in the hands of the judges and, worse yet, leaving it to the judges when you have not actually established yourself as the winner.

Sometimes it goes one way. Other times, it goes the other way. For the first time, really, it did not go Edgar’s way.

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Yushin Okami: Can He Work His Way Back to a Title Shot?

No. That’s it. No. Yushin Okami is almost certainly not going to find himself in a title bout in the UFC ever again. I am not going to sugarcoat that answer. The only possible way Okami ends up in another title fight would be a combination of injuries,…

No.

That’s it.

No.

Yushin Okami is almost certainly not going to find himself in a title bout in the UFC ever again. I am not going to sugarcoat that answer. The only possible way Okami ends up in another title fight would be a combination of injuries, losses by other contenders and if he puts together a bunch of wins, almost immediately.

Otherwise, Okami will remain where he has been for almost his entire UFC career—a stepping stone used specifically to determine if a young fighter can overcome grappling.

This is not to criticize Yushin Okami by any means. Okami is a strong fighter who is one of the pound-for-pound most powerful wrestlers in MMA, and he has had a very long, very strong UFC career.

That said, at no point has he ever been on top of Dana White‘s list of people he wants to have as a champion. Worse yet, at no point has he been a fighter anyone has been especially excited to see fight.

A large part of this is, simply, the disdain many fans have for “grappling specialists” who they claim fight safely, in an effort to edge-out opponents with judges. While this is completely off-base (after all, how many complain that knockout artists are scaredy cats because they will not wrestle?) it has nonetheless proven to be a large enough group that they can influence matchmaking.

Jon Fitch felt that sting when he won five fights in a row and was on many pound-for-pound top-ten lists, but was essentially never in the title picture from 2009-2011. Georges St-Pierre and Jake Shields have also been criticized for this.

Being a grappling specialist is going to put any given fighter at a disadvantage out-of-hand, but the factors working against Okami do not end there.

The UFC’s middleweight division is absolutely stacked right now. It is far, far more stacked than it was just a year ago when Okami fought for the belt, given the addition of Hector Lombard, the rises of Tim Boetsch and Chris Weidman, and the return of Alan Belcher

On top of that, the UFC’s middleweight field is actually getting bigger. There is much talk about Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida dropping down, and either of them would be very close to getting a title shot if they do drop (though Machida has always been vocal about not fighting Anderson Silva).

It keeps getting worse, as one must also consider Strikeforce. The UFC’s sister promotion is only secure through 2012. After that, it is entirely possible that their middleweight division’s top fighters could be brought into the UFC. That would then add Ronaldo Souza, Roger Gracie, Tim Kennedy and Luke Rockhold onto the pile.

Okami would probably have to win five or six fights in a row, and have a boatload of strategically-placed losses amongst other contenders, in order to climb to the top of that pile. Even then, there is no guarantee he would fight for the belt.

Again, Yushin Okami is a very good fighter. Unfortunately, he is a very good fighter that is well outside the title picture in a stacked division who, over the years, has been forced to fight on preliminary cards because fans are so thoroughly disinterested in him.

So ultimately, no. Yushin Okami will never see a shot at the title again.

At UFC 150, Okami will be facing Buddy Roberts. With that in mind, it is very difficult to imagine him stepping into the cage against Anderson Silva again.

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