The rematch Chad Mendes has been waiting for since 2012 is upon us. He and UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo will clash again at UFC 179 on Saturday night. Mendes has one loss on his record and it came at the hands—or should I say knee—of Aldo.
Back in Jan. 2012, a well-placed knee knocked Mendes out as he attempted to dethrone Aldo in front of his hometown crowd in Rio de Janeiro. Since the loss, Mendes has been on a rampage as he has set his sights on avenging the defeat and winning the 145-pound crown.
Mendes has won five-straight fights with stoppages in all but one. Aldo has continued to defend his title, but he hasn’t been quite as active. He’s 3-0 since the first meeting with Mendes. The rematch will also take place in Brazil where Aldo has a humongous following. If Mendes is to gain retribution, he’ll have to do it behind enemy lines.
UFC fans love finishes, but the rematch has the look of a bout that is going to go to the cards. Here are my predictions for the entire main card. Just below the table is a closer look at the main event.
Turn it Down For What?
With strikers as deadly as Aldo and Mendes, there’s always the chance for an explosive finish, but I wouldn’t bet on it in the rematch. Mendes will be cautiously aggressive against Aldo. He knows firsthand how quickly the champion can end his night.
This is likely a psychological struggle for Mendes who is naturally a finisher, but if he wants to change the outcome this time around, he has to make adjustments. Tuning down the aggression will probably be his approach—at least early in the fight.
Aldo is known for his striking prowess—partly because of the way he finished Mendes—but when you look at his recent fights, he’s been far more defensive than offensive.
He has just one stoppage win since beating Mendes, and that came when Chan Sung Jung injured his shoulder and couldn’t continue. In his last two fights combined, Aldo has thrown a total of 206 strikes. In his Fight of the Night win over Frankie Edgar in Feb. 2013, Aldo threw 253 strikes, per Fight Metric.
Aldo knows Mendes is eager to get his revenge, there’s no need for him to rush in. However, with Mendes wary of another quick counter, there should be a tactical feeling out process early on.
The later rounds are more apt to produce fireworks. The question is: Will either man have the gas to finish the other if they land a pivotal shot? Mendes has never been five rounds in his career. Aldo has gone the championship distance five times.
That experience in deep waters will be the difference in the bout. Mendes will have some moments early. He may even hurt Aldo, but the champion’s ground game and survival instincts should save him from a finish. From the third round on, he should be the fresher fighter and based on that reserve, he’ll outstrike Mendes en route to a unanimous-decision victory.
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