As fight time nears, the Conor McGregor hype train continues to make him a slightly heavier favorite against Chad Mendes in the main event at UFC 189.
According to Odds Shark, McGregor‘s odds have gone from 20-21 to 10-19 since the line first opened. Mendes—on the other hand—has gone from equal footing with McGregor to a slight underdog as fight time approaches.
At this point, the line is assuredly a reflection of McGregor‘s popularity rather than an assessment of the fight. All things considered, it’s a tough fight to handicap due to McGregor‘s meteoric rise up the rankings. For as good as he’s been against the likes of Dennis Siver, Diego Brandao and Dustin Poirier, there’s still no way to tell how he’ll perform with the best of the division standing across the cage from him.
The line has definitely been brought into question by those who feel like Mendes deserves to at least be at even odds with McGregor. Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report chimed in on the subject:
Just like everything about this fight, it really comes down to how you perceive McGregor. For those that see him as the next big thing in MMA, this line is an extreme value. Much like Jon Jones coming in as low as a 20-37 (-185) favorite against Shogun Rua in his first title defense, these odds may seem absurd in a few years.
On the other hand, if you view McGregor as nothing more than a mouthpiece who is good with promotion, the fact he’s even favored is absurd. After all, Mendes is currently ranked as the No. 1 fighter in the division. He holds wins over four of the fighters in the top 10, including a first-round dismantling of Ricardo Lamas in his last fight out.
By contrast, McGregor‘s only victory against a fighter in the top 10 of the division at the time of writing was over Max Holloway in a bout that went the distance.
Conclusions can’t be drawn by comparing resumes in this case, though. McGregor can only beat who UFC brass puts in front of him. If Mendes fought the same slate of opponents that McGregor has, he would probably run through them in easy fashion.
However, if McGregor fought the same slate Mendes has, we really don’t know if he would succeed where Mendes has failed (namely, beating Jose Aldo).
In picking this fight, one has to look at the skills each fighter is bringing to the cage. This bout has been billed as a wrestler vs. striker matchup, but that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story. As Patrick Wyman of Sherdog notes, Mendes is an underrated striker:
In fact, Wyman has predicted that Mendes‘ ability to counterstrike in tandem with his takedowns will be the reason he takes home decision:
In a pure striking matchup, the Irishman will eventually force Mendes to the fence and overwhelm him with volume and pressure. Mendes’ takedowns, however, should prevent McGregor from settling into his preferred rhythm and offensive output. In a slower-paced fight, the brick-fisted Mendes can get his own counter game going, crack McGregor in the pocket and eat up large chunks of time. The pick is Mendes by close decision in a fun, back-and-forth fight.
By the same token, McGregor‘s own wrestling ability might be a little overlooked heading into the fight. According to FightMetric, he does boast a 100 percent takedown defense rate. But most interestingly, he’s also spent a good percentage of time controlling his opponents on the mat, per Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics:
The biggest advantage in the fight might not actually have to do with skill in the first place. It’s McGregor‘s length that could give Mendes issues. The Notorious will have an 8″ reach advantage over the Money.
It’s one of the reasons that Scott Harris of Bleacher Report believes that McGregor will have his hand raised via TKO in the second round.
Mendes will have a lot more trouble closing the distance than people think. Too much trouble, in fact. McGregor will spray some hard stuff on him at range and catch him coming in with something harder. This fight might hit the ground, where McGregor is a bit of an unknown quantity, but I think he’ll find a way to scramble back to his feet and avoid big damage.
As we’ve seen illustrated by Jon Jones over the years, a fighter who knows how to control distance with freakish length is tough to beat—even against the best of wrestlers. Bones has found ways to pick apart some great grapplers, and McGregor feels like he’s destined to be that kind of fighter.
Mendes will have his moments in the fight, but this is looking like an additional step in the ultimate buildup to a match with Jose Aldo.
McGregor via second-round TKO.
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