It’s being billed as the collision of two legends who should have met years before. A gross PRIDE oversight that is finally being rectified. It is all that and more.
It may be a final shot at staying in the upper stratosphere of the Light Heavyweight Division. One last swing at staying elite. Staying Relevant.
And they are pitted against each other as nearly polar opposites.
Berserker style behind a precise, technical Muay Thai offense, bolstered by a black belt in Jiu Jitsu.
A methodical, measured approach that sets up a thermonuclear right hand, brilliant rough-nosed clinch game and top notch positional control to set up ground and pound.
Without engaging in too much hyperbole, these two are practically created to counter the other’s weaknesses.
Power:
Rua seems to be written off in the power department, which is odd, as he is the first person to put hands on Machida consistently. He even lamped the previously unbeaten enigma, on top of Chuck Liddell, Mark Coleman, Forrest Griffin, and pre-Uber-Overeem.
Shogun Rua has legitimate knockout power.
…but not like Dan Henderson. Hendo’s made a career out of a “One-Shot” ability of which opponents are always aware, but never fully understand until they are counting the lights in the arena.
One does not glance/slip Dan’s punches. One does not arm block them. If they connect, the opponent won’t remember the previous five minutes.
It doesn’t matter if it’s a right hook, overhand right, under-the-armpit right uppercut or a right cross. If there’s a punch coming, and it has “right” anywhere in its description, opponents need to avoid it or enjoy a quick nap.
Edge: Hendo.
Speed:
Despite his age, Hendo is surprisingly fast on his feet. He keeps a wide stance and strives to cut off his opponents to set them up for either a clinch and dirty boxing or unload the fore mentioned right hand.
When he knocks an opponent down, he swarms and begins hammering away until they go limp. For an old man, Hendo can move.
That being said, his combinations are short, relying on power rather than speed to connect. His footwork ends when he can get two underhooks and then he uses raw power to get you to the ground.
Rua, on the other hand, lays out crisp and precise combinations that are never less than three strikes. They happen in the blink of an eye and he can easily use his combos to throw an opponent off balance and hit a finishing blow.
He uses precises footwork to circle around and set up his attacks and also has the ability to swarm from any distance.
His transitions inside the clinch, going from hooks to Thai plum to boxer’s single arm clinch are brilliant. He can rattle off strikes and return to a neutral defending position before opponents realize what happened.
Edge: Shogun.
Cardio:
Rather self-evident here. Shogun’s entire career has been shadowed by a dark cloud called cardio.
In his defense, knee injuries have sidelined the former champion time and again, but he appears to be healthy coming into the match with Hendo.
Speaking of the Olympian, he comes in fresh and ready to fight a full three (or five) rounds every time he enters the cage. His wrestling doesn’t waiver and by having a low output striking offense, he’s able to maintain the same level throughout the match.
His only blemish on a career otherwise marked by great shape was a match against Jake Shields. Hendo came out strong but faded after being unable to finish the standout wrestler. This has later been attributed to a bad infection and strong anti-biotics hampering a weight cut, but it is still worth noting.
Edge: Hendo.
Striking:
It’s a game of technique versus power. Shogun’s brilliant Muay Thai offense against Hendo’s devastating right hand and proficient boxing to back it up.
Hendo’s wide stance leaves his legs open for Shogun’s patented leg kicks and his cocked right hand opens him for jabs and left hooks. Should Shogun use a reserved approach, he may be able to do damage and circle away before the Right Hand of Doom swings.
But if he tries to arm block a punch from Hendo or take one to give two, he’s going to find himself staring at the lights.
Still, I’ll take technique over power.
Edge: Shogun.
Clinch:
Pick your poison. Fluid, technically perfect and heavily muscled wrestling versus vicious and blitzing strikes.
Shogun’s offense was nullified over the clinch wrestling of Jon Jones and made him tentative to lock up. Hendo, while not possessing the physical attributes of Jones, has more than enough weaponry when locked up to stifle the strikes and work for a takedown.
He has shown disregard for the clinch striking of Feijao, Wanderlei Silva, and even Rampage Jackson, but took special note of Anderson Silva‘s. This isn’t to say that he could easily walk through Shogun’s attacks, but he could hug close and stifle them long enough to put Rua on his back.
Edge: Hendo.
Ground:
Again, pick your poison. Near perfect positional control versus black belt BJJ.
Henderson has been stopped before via Armbars but has learned from his mistakes over the years and prevented leaving his limbs open to be stretched. He maintains a very strong base while paying close attention to his opponent’s hips and matching their movements. He used these improvements to stifle elite grappler Rousimar Palhares and force the fight to the feet, where his chances were much greater.
Add to this the fact that reaching for his arm means preventing an extra line of defense from devastating ground and pound.
Hendo has proven to be a rare combination of wrestling and striking to be a definite finisher on the ground. One shot, from guard, half guard or side mount can drop the curtains on anyone.
That said, Shogun has an effective guard when he’s not overly focused on diving for legs. This tactic failed him against Jon Jones and left him wide open for further GnP. He can’t afford to be so myopic against Henderson, who has greater one punch power than the current Light Heavyweight Champion.
When he isn’t overly focused on legs, Shogun adroitly uses his hips and positional control to minimize damage while setting up various attacks and sweeps, if only to get back to his feet.
Look for Shogun to use hip movement to create distance get away from Hendo and get back to his feet where the stakes match him more favorably.
Edge: Hendo.
Intangibles:
Both men have loads of experience, so it would normally be a wash here. But Hendo has been against Muay Thai strikers and been successful more recently than Shogun has been successful against Greco Roman wrestlers.
Shogun, since entering the UFC, has had major issues with anyone who can push the pace and force him out of his comfort zone. Clinching in close and making the fight dirty is a surefire way to attack Shogun’s suspect gas tank.
To gloss over Hendo’s incredible chin would be a massive oversight. In 36 fights, Hendo has never been knocked out or TKO’d. Rampage, following their match, even mentioned that he never wanted to fight Hendo again because his head hurt Jackson’s hands.
Finally, if Hendo is slow to start and headhunting, he could easily lose this match on points. Rua moving in and out and picking him apart will look much better to the judges than looping wide punches that miss the much more nimble Shogun.
This humble writer’s prediction:
Hendo bullies Rua throughout the first and second rounds with clinch work and dirty boxing and follows suit in the third before breaking a clinch with a sharp right hand that dazes the fading Rua and allows Hendo to swarm for a TKO.
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