Junior dos Santos will knock out Frank Mir when the two face off at UFC 146; I feel rather certain about that.
But against the savvy Mir, he’ll need more than the 64 seconds it took him to finish off Cain Velasquez in November to win the UFC heavyweight belt.
In a nutshell, this fight is going to come down to which fighter is able to dictate the style of the fight. If Dos Santos can keep it off the mat and go to work with his standing game, he’ll win. In his career (14-1), 10 of his wins have been by knockout.
If Mir takes it to the canvas and starts working his submission game, Dos Santos might get his arm broken.
Seriously—Mir has broken two arms in the Octagon in his career. The mat is his domain.
I would imagine this fight early on will go something like this: The fighters briefly trade blows standing up, Mir realizes this isn’t a viable way to remain conscious, Mir attempts to take Dos Santos to the mat, Dos Santos fights him off given that Mir’s wrestling isn’t top notch, rinse and repeat.
This fight could be terribly exciting if one fighter gains an upper hand, but it could also be rather dull if the two reach a stalemate.
Which is why, despite the fact that I believe Dos Santos will win this fight by knockout, he won’t do so early. Mir isn’t dumb enough to make this a standing brawl, or at least I don’t think he is.
Dos Santos is one of the hottest fighters in the UFC right now. He’s won nine straight fights, and seven have ended early. His ascension to the heavyweight belt was rather incredible, and his quick dismantling of Velasquez was shocking.
He’s much faster than Mir, and he’s well-rounded enough to escape if Mir does manage to bring him to the mat. And I don’t doubt Mir will do so.
But it won’t be enough. Mir will survive for more than 64 seconds.
But he won’t survive.
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