There is plenty of money flowing around the boxing match between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor in Las Vegas on Saturday.
It’s good business for Sin City, the event is expected to shatter pay-per-view records, Mayweather and McGregor themselves are going to make large fortunes for one night of work and, of course, the betting will likely be off the charts.
While Mayweather is a solid -400 favorite (bet $400 to win $100), per OddsShark.com, there are plenty of prop bets to keep things interesting for fans. Even Mayweather’s odds of straight-up winning are probably far too low, considering he’s undefeated and McGregor is fighting on a boxer’s terms, and not competing in the mixed martial arts that propelled him to superstardom in the first place.
A strong pay-per-view undercard could also generate plenty of action. Here’s a look at the fight card odds and a few of the many, many prop bets, courtesy of OddsShark as of August 23.
Mayweather-McGregor Fight Card Odds
Floyd Mayweather (-400) vs. Conor McGregor (+300, bet $100 to win $300) Super welterweight
Badou Jack (-450) Nathan Cleverly (+325), light heavyweight
Andrew Tabiti (-300) vs. Steve Cunningham (+230), cruiserweight
Gervonta Davis (-10000) Francisco Fonseca (+1600), junior lightweight
Mayweather-McGregor Prop Bets
Floyd Mayweather by KO, TKO or DQ (-125)
It might surprise some, but Mayweather’s odds of winning by stoppage are better than his odds of artfully boxing his way to a decision win (+250).
The 40-year-old prizefighter hasn’t been in a competitive match since defeating Andre Berto in September 2015, and the last time he won by knockout was in 2011, when he cracked Victor Ortiz immediately after the two touched gloves, in somewhat controversial fashion (Ortiz didn’t look ready, but in boxing you always have to be ready).
Still, this prop bet speaks to the fact that many believe McGregor will be way out of his element fighting on Mayweather’s terms, and that the latter might be more inclined to go on the attack than he would against a seasoned boxing professional.
Bleacher Report’s Kevin McRae believes that this fight won’t be close, but he does think it will go the distance:
“Lots of people with a vested financial interest in this fight are trying to convince you that somehow an MMA fighter with zero boxing rounds under his belt could be even competitive against one of the best technical fighters of all time. Don’t believe them. Mayweather wins this fight by an Andre Berto-like (Conor loses every round) unanimous decision. “
Total Punch Percentage Landed by McGregor (Over 15% -120, Under 15% -120)
Mayweather is a master at making people miss. What would be crunching shots on other boxers end up stymied by a glove or a shoulder roll, while potentially glancing blows hit nothing but air.
In Mayweather’s megafight against Manny Pacquiao in 2015, the aggressive Filipino boxer managed to connect on just 19 percent of his punches, per CBS Sports’ Lyle Fitzsimmons. The wild, haymaking Marcos Maidana connected with Mayweather on 26 percent of his punches in a loss in 2014, per MLive.com’s Josh Slagter, but he fared far better than most.
McGregor will be hard pressed to come up with those kinds of numbers. There are many differences, both subtle and overt, in landing punches in a boxing match as compared to an MMA fight. McGregor’s timing, footwork and punch angles will all have to be different from the Octagon if he is to connect with any regularity.
That said, Mayweather is aging, and it’s possible some of the precision and agility that allows him to slip punches by mere centimeters will no longer be there, and he may find himself taking a few blows that a younger version of himself would have dodged with ease.
Of course, McGregor’s path to victory isn’t likely going to be a sustained assault. As he has said himself, he is hoping his power can see him through to a victory.
Conor McGregor to Win in Rounds 1, 2, 3 or 4 (+1400)
Big payouts here for those who think McGregor is going to stop this fight early. McGregor has boasted of an early knockout of Mayweather, even telling the MailOnline’s Daniel Matthews: “Now the gloves are eight pounds, I don’t believe he makes it out of the second round.”
Also, claims don’t get much bolder than this, per SportsCenter:
Those who have watched his UFC fights know that he can crumple an opponent with a single punch. The southpaw may give Mayweather pause early, especially since the latter doesn’t have a book on his opponent due to this being his first proper boxing match. He may have his moments if Mayweather loses focus for even a split-second.
Mayweather, of course, has faced plenty of powerful fighters in his long career, as he was quick to remind McGregor during their final press conference Wednesday, per MMAJunkie.com’s Steven Marrocco and John Morgan:
“August 26th, he’s going to bring his best, and it’s not going to be easy, Conor. Remember, (Manny) Pacquiao got bombs, (Saul) Canelo (Alvarez) got bombs, Shane Mosely had bombs, and all of those guys are going in the Hall of Fame. But one thing about me, I’ve got a granite chin. Remember this. The same way you give it, you have to be able to take it.”
After the first four rounds, the odds start to get pretty steep, culminating in a +5000 line for McGregor to win in any of the last three rounds. A late win for McGregor is possible, but it almost assuredly will have to come through a stunning knockout blow, rather than a technical knockout or points win.
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