Tim Means will take a step up in the welterweight division when he meets No. 5-ranked Matt Brown at UFC 189.
Will jumping into a fight against a top-five opponent put Means in over his head? No, I don’t think so.
It’s understandable why that thought may creep into your minds. Means has had the chance on several occasions to make a statement at both 155 and 170, but he has come up short each time. He lacks a signature win over a top-level opponent. So it’s fair to suggest that Means dove into the deep end too quickly in accepting a fight with a top-five opponent.
For many fighters, it is best to work their way up the ranks slowly. Top 15, top 10 and then top five. But Means can make this jump because he is a crafty veteran who has fought legit competition. This won’t be a monumental leap for Means.
The Dirty Bird has been on fire since returning to the 170-pound division. He is 6-1 with four straight wins. He has a fan-pleasing style that invites gritty exchanges, and he takes full advantage of it. The matchup with Brown is one that could easily steal Fight of the Night, and it’s winnable for Means.
Brown and Means are very similar. Brown worked his way up the ranks after a rough stint from 2010 to 2011. Starting in 2012, he put together seven consecutive wins. That stretch moved him into a title eliminator against Robbie Lawler.
After dropping that fight, he took on Johny Hendricks in another losing effort. Brown received his adulation in part because his style was so exciting. However, it was not a seven-fight win streak over seven elite talents. It was a win streak of impressive finishes.
Brown earned his standing in the division, but it is slightly inflated.
Means’ skill set matches up well with Brown’s. He has a dynamic striking game with excellent elbows in tight and a solid ground game, should Brown try to take the fight to the canvas. Brown’s propensity to engage in a brawl should give Means opportunities to score on foot.
Brown loves to brawl, but where he may have the advantage is on the ground.
He may also have a slight overall advantage, but nothing that should make Means a massive underdog. It is a winnable fight for Means, and one that could move him into the top 10 in this division. It’s a big fight for this weight class.
If this was a fight against Hendricks, then Means would be out of his depth—at least where he stands today. But against Brown, it is a fight that makes sense.
Styles make fights. Brown is not a defensive genius. He gets hit. That bodes well for Means’ chances.
It’s a bit too far out to side with either fighter, but this matchup is closer than the rankings suggest.
This is undoubtedly a step up in competition, but Means is not in over his head against Brown.
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