If UFC welterweight champion Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks’ rematch with “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler is half as good as their first bout, the Mandalay Bay will be rocking on Saturday night in Las Vegas. In March, Hendricks narrowly defeated Lawler via unanimous decision after the two engaged in a slugfest that is one of the most memorable title fights in UFC history.
Hendricks has been on the shelf recuperating from surgery to repair a torn bicep. This will be his first fight back. What a welcome.
Lawler hasn’t taken a moment off since he almost dethroned Hendricks almost nine months ago. He’s defeated Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown and is prepared for his fourth fight of the year. He sounds like a confident man.
This one should be good.
That’s just one of the world title fights on tap for Saturday. UFC lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis will make his return to the Octagon and defend his belt for the first time.
Opposing him will be Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez. Pettis took the title from Benson Henderson in Aug. 2013, but a knee injury has kept him out of action since. Melendez is one of the most skilled lightweights in the world.
This will be his second attempt at the 155-pound crown. He lost a close decision to Henderson in April 2013. After a savage battle with Diego Sanchez, El Nino is in position to fight for a title again. It’ll be hard for the fight to be as awesome as this image from Gian Galang.
With two champions returning and defending their titles against formidable foes, UFC 181 is a must for any MMA fan. Here are my predictions for every fight on tap. Just below the table is a deeper look at the top three bouts on the card.
Hapa Will Handle Big Brown
After the one-sided beating he took from Fabricio Werdum in April, Travis Browne may want to think twice about climbing the heavyweight ladder again. Werdum is now the interim heavyweight champion, and a win over Schaub would put Browne right back in line to face Werdum again.
Against most heavyweights, Browne looks like an overwhelming force of athleticism and vicious striking prowess. I predict he’ll be true to that form against Schaub. Big Brown has always looked the part of a potential contender but has always underwhelmed me—even when he wins.
He was robbed in his last bout against Andrei Arlovski, but this one isn’t going to the judges.
Browne will prove who the biggest Browne in the Octagon is on Saturday night. His three-inch height advantage and improved takedown defense will keep the fight standing. Werdum baffled Browne because he was able to vary his attacks as a striker and pick his spots to go to the ground.
Schaub’s game isn’t as deep. He’ll need to take Browne down, but as Josh Barnett found out, that’s easier said than done when the big man from Hawaii knows that’s what his opponent is trying to do.
Hapa is lethal in the clinch with some of the best elbows in the heavyweight division. On the strength of those shots, Browne will stop Schaub en route to a victory.
Pettis Is Too Athletic for Melendez
Unless there’s a significant dropoff in Pettis‘ movement and athleticism after the injury, he’ll pick Melendez apart and submit him late to retain his title.
From a speed and dexterity standpoint, Pettis is on a different level. He’s able to strike in a variety of effective and unorthodox ways. He keeps opponents guessing and is just as apt to land a head kick as he is to snap on a triangle choke or armbar.
If you think about all of the ways Pettis has finished opponents in his career—and the caliber of the foes—it’s really impressive. The head kick that defeated Joe Lauzon, the kick to Donald Cerrone’s midsection and the armbar that won him the title are examples of Pettis‘ diverse attack.
For most opponents, Melendez’s rock solid striking and almost as impressive grappling would allow him to be a real threat. Against Pettis, he’ll be beaten to the punch most of the fight. When he’s fatigued and hurt late, Pettis will pounce for the submission finish.
Lawler Will Break Hendricks in Rematch
There’s some logic that could suggest Hendricks will be the fresher fighter heading into his rematch with Lawler. It makes sense. Hendricks hasn’t fought since March, and Lawler just beat Brown in another grueling five-round fight in July.
Even with the rounds piling up on Lawler in 2014, he has the rhythm, concentration and an edge in confidence. Almost everyone Hendricks has ever hit with his heavy hands has gone away literally or figuratively. The latter is a hat tip to Georges St-Pierre.
Despite landing hard shots on Lawler, the Ruthless One stood his ground and gave the punishment back to him. Were it not for a late takedown, Lawler might very well be the welterweight champion.
Both men know how close the first fight was, but something tells me that they also know Lawler is the tougher fighter. Hendricks is going to have to do his best to take Lawler down early. When he can’t do that, it’ll be another war of attrition in the stand-up game, and this time Lawler will get the best of the deal.
Look for Lawler to take a unanimous decision and Hendricks’ title.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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