Jon Jones returns to action Saturday night in a battle for the interim light heavyweight championship in a battle against Ovince Saint Preux in the headline bout for UFC 197.
Jones (21-1) was once the king of the light heavyweight division, having defended his title an impressive eight times before he was stripped of the championship in April 2015.
He returns against Saint Preux, a fighter with excellent quickness and explosive punching power. The idea was that Jones would fight Daniel Cormier upon his return, but Cormier suffered a knee injury in early April and Saint Preux got the call to step in.
While Saint Preux (19-7) is a solid fighter, this is the biggest challenge of his career. He will be fighting one of the most dangerous men on the planet.
The odds reflect the respect Jones carries when he fights. Odds Shark has Jones as the minus-550 favorite, while Saint Preux is plus-375.
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Jones uses his length and quickness to dominate his opponents. He is 6’4″ with an 84″ reach, and he generates tremendous and surprising power with his punches.
He has knockout ability from a distance, and unless Saint Preux can figure out a defense against Jones, he will have to look out for the long-range punches that could cause consistent damage. However, Jones is equally dangerous when he gets his opponent in a clinch. He is able to fire vicious elbows that are capable of inflicting great pain.
Jones is dangerous from long distance because he also has the kind of quickness that is rare for a man of his size. His ability to launch punches and kicks in sharp succession and have them land on the button and do maximum damage is one of Jones’s signature moves.
The best opportunity for Saint Preux may be to keep Jones in the pocket, where he is good but not special. The problem when fighting at mid-range is it’s difficult to stay out of clinches, where Jones can use his leverage to impose his will on an opponent.
Saint Preux does not want any part of a ground battle with Jones, who is both ruthless and technical. Once he starts striking, it is just a matter of time before he does significant damage. He is also a threat to choke out an opponent who attempts to escape from a ground position.
Saint Preux is a powerful puncher, and his southpaw style can be difficult to figure out. If he finds the range from the pocket with his left hand, he could cause quite a bit of damage. OSP also has a wrestling background and an array of moves.
Like most underdogs in all combat sports, Saint Preux is fighting for respect from his opponent.
It’s difficult to find analysts who believe OSP is going to defeat Jones. Riley Kontek of FanSided does not expect Jones to be at his best upon his return, but he still expects him to come away with a finish in this fight and win.
Vince Carey of Combat Press also believes Jones will win, and he predicts he will accomplish his victory with an early stoppage.
Mike Schultz of Sports Interaction is also expecting a Jones win via knockout, and Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports sees Jones ending the fight with a series of ground strikes in the fourth round.
The prediction here is that Saint Preux will hold his own in the first round and into the second, but Jones will take over at that point and dominate the fight. He will get close to registering a knockout in the third and fourth rounds before putting away his worthy challenger with a fifth-round submission.
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