Saturday night is the night we have all been waiting for—Jon Jones defends the UFC light heavyweight championship against Daniel Cormier.
Cormier is an elite-level wrestler, and that skill is seen as his path to victory this weekend. He has to get inside, use his wrestling and beat up Jones on the canvas. While that is his best path to capturing gold at UFC 182, no one should be sleeping on what he can do with his hands.
The former Olympian is in his fifth year as a pro. He has had a long time to develop his striking at AKA, one of the premier camps for MMA fighters to hone their striking skills. He got to show off his power in the heavyweight division with several knockouts. His knockout of Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva is what put him on the map as a top-tier heavyweight.
The concern with Jones is how well he can manage distance. Jones will not want Cormier in close because of his wrestling disadvantage, but this also plays to his advantage in striking, as he will have a substantial reach advantage. Cormier has a 72.5-inch reach, while Jones’ reach comes in at 84.5.
Jones has been touched before. His striking defense is not impenetrable. According to official UFC statistics provided by FightMetric, Jones only has 66 percent in the area of striking defense. He has been hit by plodding strikers like Glover Teixeira and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson—just at a lower rate than Cormier.
The champion’s striking accuracy is just over the halfway mark at 54 percent. Jones’ significant strikes landed per minute is only marginally better than Cormier. The challenger has an underrated boxing game, and has big power in his hands. If he can land a few on Jones, it could be a quick night.
Cormier‘s main striking success comes from in close, and has been achieved against slower heavyweights. That has to be noted. It will not be nearly as easy against Jones. It is just worth noting that he is not entirely out of his depth.
AKA prepares their fighters extraordinarily well. We have seen Cain Velasquez blossom from a collegiate wrestler into a fighter who out-struck Junior dos Santos with ease in their last two meetings. His hands looked outstanding. Cormier is likely on that same path.
All of the stats and video show that Cormier is a solid striker who continues to get better standing, but this is MMA. The effect of his wrestling on Jones will only assist his success on foot.
The more he can get the champion’s back against the fence, the more success he can have with dirty boxing, an area where Cormier has proven to excel. It will also help him fight at distance as Jones focuses on defending takedowns.
Jones is without question the more diverse striker in this matchup, but there is no reason to completely whitewash Cormier‘s chances on foot. He has good boxing technique, excellent power and possesses the ability to slip and counter effectively.
If Cormier goes in to stand and exchange with Jones, he will lose. If Jones can manage the distance effectively, he will retain. But Cormier has the ability to hold his own standing, and that will give him chances to either end this fight with one shot, or to capitalize on openings Jones leaves to turn this fight into a grappling affair.
No one should completely overlook Cormier‘s chances on foot. That is where the fight starts each round, and he will be prepared for Jones’ physical gifts. Saturday will be a very interesting day to see what the game plan is for Cormier on foot.
Is he at a disadvantage standing? Absolutely. Is he completely outclassed in that aspect? That video and those statistics say you may be surprised on Saturday night.
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