All the hype and talk is almost over for Conor McGregor and Floyd Mayweather Jr. On Saturday, August 26, the two combat sports stars will finally be done talking and promoting, and all that will be left will be an old-fashioned fist fight.
It’s a fight that’s been driven by questions, the type that usually die in a bar room debate or internet comment section. Can an MMA fighter really compete with an elite boxer? Can Mayweather withstand the kind of power that McGregor brings to the table?
These questions will be answered, but this fight goes beyond those simple questions. Regardless of how you feel about who is going to win, it’s an intriguing matchup with a lot of moving parts.
Here’s a look at some of the key factors that will determine who gets his hand raised at the end of the night.
McGregor‘s Unorthodox Rhythm
Joseph Duffy has unique insight into this bout. The Irish MMA fighter has not only beaten McGregor in the cage, but he also has some professional boxing experience.
While the fact that McGregor has no professional boxing experience is largely a negative, Duffy sees a way in which it can be a positive.
“Sometimes the hardest guys to fight are the ones that are so unorthodox because, especially from a boxing point of view, they’re hard to train for,” Duffy said, per Tom Rooney of MMAjunkie. “Floyd tends to cover all bases, but he might find it hard to find a guy who fights like that. It could definitely unsettle him.”
Mayweather is a masterful counterpuncher. The majority of his offense comes from defense, which makes him extremely difficult to hit in a meaningful way.
Developing that counterpunching takes an innate sense of timing, which comes from repetition, and it’s hard to rep someone like McGregor. The Notorious has always had a strong emphasis on movement and doesn’t move like traditional boxers.
If McGregor is to land the punch that many think could put Money away, it’s going to be because his rhythm is unlike anything Mayweather has seen in the ring.
The Length of the Fight
A major adjustment for McGregor is going to be the length of the fight. The longest McGregor has fought in his career was five-round MMA fight against Nate Diaz. That’s 25 minutes of fight time.
In the ring, the fight is scheduled for 12 three-minute rounds. That’s a different mindset for a fighter who is used to fighting within MMA rules.
In McGregor‘s first fight with Diaz, he gassed himself out before Diaz took over the fight in the second round and ultimately won by submission. In the rematch, McGregor paced himself better and earned the decision win.
To fight Mayweather, he’s going to have to reconfigure his pacing once again. Diaz believes that McGregor‘s cardio will be his undoing.
“I think McGregor‘s got a good chance to make something happen in [the first] two or three rounds,” Diaz said, per Brandon Wise of CBS Sports. “But I think he’s got an amateur style where he’s only got good movement, good punches for six, eight minutes, and I think that’s too amateur for Mayweather.”
With McGregor saying he’s going to win the fight in the first round, he could be in trouble if his early aggression simply wears him out.
McGregor‘s Power
This is the crux of the McGregor argument that he can win. The Irish southpaw has a dynamite left hand. Mayweather has always been a bit more vulnerable to left-handed opponents. It’s the perfect setup.
Even Andre Ward—an undefeated boxer in his own right—sees the possibility of McGregor changing this fight with just one shot:
The problem is that we’ve heard this before. McGregor isn’t the first one who was considered to be powerful enough to finish Mayweather. Money has beaten a whole lineup of brawlers who were supposed to be aggressive and land the shot that finally handed him a loss.
None of them have been able to do it. Which leads us too…
Mayweather’s Defense
There’s a reason that Mayweather is 49-0 and still able to fight at an elite level at the age of 40. It doesn’t have anything to do with hand speed, power or even his footwork. It’s got everything to do with his defense.
Mayweather has all of those things. But the defense is the reason he’s had such sustained success. He defends differently than most and does it better than anyone.
His shell defense makes opponents see openings that aren’t there. As soon as they try to exploit them, they pay the price.
That’s the beauty of Mayweather’s game. He’s mastered the art of not getting hit, and it frustrates opponents into abandoning their game plan and getting smashed with counters over and over again.
It would be one thing if McGregor was making the crossover against your average top-level boxer. A bout with the likes of Miguel Cotto or even Canelo Alvarez would afford the Notorious the opportunity to brawl his way to a successful crossover.
Instead, he’s taking on a man who can make even those boxers look foolish. If McGregor can figure out how to beat Mayweather’s legendary defense, he’ll be the first to do so.
That’s what makes it hard to believe that he’s going to be able to pull off the upset come Saturday night.
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