Every fan knows that Nick Diaz is one of the most complicated personalities in MMA. Outside the cage, you never know what he is going to do, a fact that has frustrated Dana White and cost Diaz himself two separate title shots (first, his fight with GSP and then a potential rematch with Carlos Condit).
Inside the cage is another story. Everyone knows what Nick Diaz wants to do inside the cage. He prides himself on it. He wants to come at you, and punch you in the face. Period. He has a lot of skills outside the powerful boxing that has given him thirteen career KOs and made him a fan favorite in every promotion he fought for. But more and more in the last few months, we have seen that being a tough, talented brawler is simply not enough to reach the top in the UFC anymore.
Nick Diaz was an absolute force in Strikeforce, winning all six of his bouts with little resistance. While his success in the California-based promotion is not something to completely dismiss, it should be taken with a grain of salt. Strikeforce’s talent pool has been consistently shallow and even the biggest Strikeforce fan will agree that BJ Penn, Carlos Condit and Georges St-Pierre are profoundly better than Paul Daley, Evangelista Santos and KJ Noons.
While Diaz has always made quick work of lesser competition, we have seen he will not be able to do this in the UFC. He beat BJ Penn convincingly, but had a lot of help from Penn’s signature lack of conditioning at welterweight (Penn won the first round, but gassed early in the second and was pounded by Diaz for the remainder of the fight). His next fight, an interim title bout against Carlos Condit, was another story entirely.
The fight started, and ended, with Diaz pressing forward, absorbing damage and having Condit elude him. While some questioned the decision, what cannot be denied is that Diaz was radically out-struck by Condit, who landed 151 significant strikes to Diaz’s 105. Diaz also took more hits than he gave in four of five rounds and took substantially more damage. While there is a case that can be made that Diaz deserved to win the fight (a weak case…but a case nonetheless), Diaz clearly showed an inability or, more likely, an unwillingness to adjust to Condit’s successful hit-and-run strategy.
Unfortunately, MMA fans have seen this before. Very recently, in fact. While it feels almost wrong to say this, Nick Diaz can be put in the same boat as former light heavyweight champ Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. In some ways, the sport of MMA has moved forward, while they have not.
Granted, Jackson’s issues run far deeper than one decision loss to a serious talent like Carlos Condit, but Diaz and Jackson had great success for a long time, and lost to fighters that capitalized on their simplistic style and imperfect technique. Both fighters are clearly irked by the fact that they can no longer just punch their way to the top
Being a tough, straightforward puncher is not enough in the UFC anymore. The fighters at the top of each division are faster, smarter, stronger and more talented than ever. Nick Diaz cannot just expect to come into a fight against a top UFC welterweight and expect to have consistent success by simply walking forward and swinging away with his technically-spotty boxing.
He can beat a washed-up Frank Shamrock that way, sure. He can beat Paul Daley that way. But Carlos Condit successfully game-planned around it, and there is no reason to believe comparably smart, and equally skilled, fighters like Josh Koscheck, Jake Ellenberger, John Fitch and, above all, Georges St-Pierre cannot do the same.
MMA is an ever-changing game and Nick Diaz, if he wants to remain one of the best, needs to evolve with it. Just 28 years old, he still has many years ahead of him if he chooses to stick around. Though he stated he was retiring after his loss to Condit, one should always view post-fight declarations of retirement skeptically (Dana White openly believes he will return).
Diaz wants to be the UFC champ (though again, it seems like he keeps on making efforts to sabotage his chances). To achieve this, he needs to be wiling to leave his comfort zone of standing and banging. The days of Nick Diaz being able to reach the top this way are gone.
That does not, in any way, suggest Diaz does not have a future ahead of him. He is still talented, hardworking and fairly young, but Diaz needs to come around to the fact that talent and hard work will only bring you so far. He has the tools to reach the top. He just needs to start using them, or else he is going to see plenty of unanimous decision losses in his future.
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