Rest vs. Rust: Will Johny Hendricks Be Fresh or Foggy at UFC 181?

It’s easy to trick yourself into thinking Johny Hendricks has been out longer than nine months.
Maybe it’s the general breakneck pace of 2014, or the glut of injuries that stymied plans at every turn, but at this point it feels like ages si…

It’s easy to trick yourself into thinking Johny Hendricks has been out longer than nine months.

Maybe it’s the general breakneck pace of 2014, or the glut of injuries that stymied plans at every turn, but at this point it feels like ages since we’ve seen the new welterweight champion fight. With all that’s happened this year, Hendricks’ title victory over Robbie Lawler at UFC 171 might as well have been back in the Roosevelt administration.

The Teddy Roosevelt administration.

In truth, it was actually mid-March and perhaps—just perhaps—Hendricks’ recent injury layoff has been a bit overblown.

When he rematches Lawler on Saturday at UFC 181, it will mark Hendricks’ second Octagon appearance of 2014. That’s about all you can expect from a UFC champion these days, and it’s also on par with his own workload dating back to 2012. When you think about it that way, maybe we have no reason to believe anything besides the best, most complete version of Hendricks will show up to renew this rivalry.

Yet, still we worry.

Has Hendricks been inactive too long? Will there be ring rust? Or—and this is where the absurdity of our handwringing really becomes clear—what if he’s coming back too soon? Will the cracked shin and torn bicep that hampered him at UFC 171 really be 100 percent?

While Hendricks recuperated from multiple injuries, Lawler kept busy. He reaffirmed his status as No. 1 contender with victories over Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown. Saturday will be his fourth fight of the year and his fifth in a shade under 13 months. So long as he’s coming into this bout free of any secret ailments, momentum should be on his side, and it’s a good bet he’ll come out firing from the opening bell.

Their first fight was a grueling, brutal affair that was narrowly won by Hendricks after he got the best of the fifth and final round. If Lawler manages to make it go that way again, will the new titlist be up to the challenge?

For what it’s worth, oddsmakers don’t seem worried, making Hendricks a little more than a 2-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark.

The champion isn’t concerned, either. When I talked to him in September, he said he was fit as a fiddle and already putting himself through a test minicamp, just to make sure the surgically repaired tendons in his arm were really ready to rock n’ roll.

“We’re just sort of fine-tuning and trying to get a little bit better,” Hendricks said then. “Now that we’ve got some time off I’m really focusing on putting some muscle back on that I lost [after] not being able to lift or work out or do anything for four months. We’re working on my hands, getting them better, and my kicks.”

It should be mentioned that at the time Hendricks said these things he wasn’t planning on fighting until February 2015. He didn’t yet have an opponent, even though everyone (including him) assumed it would be Lawler. Just a few days after we spoke, an injury to middleweight champion Chris Weidman caused yet another reshuffling, and Hendricks vs. Lawler got moved up to the main event of UFC 181.

At least publicly, that sudden rush back to action has seemed to suit Hendricks just fine. He didn’t come off as bored, exactly, when we talked those months ago, but he certainly had some extra time on his hands and was itching to get started on something real. After getting the opportunity to return sooner than expected, he’d likely tell you he wouldn’t want it any other way.

Perhaps neither would his coaches. You don’t have to read too deeply between the lines to think the injuries he suffered in the first fight might have affected their game-planning. Hendricks went toe-to-toe with Lawler for most of their 25 minutes together. That turned out to be great for fans but seemed to play directly to Lawler’s strengths.

If he’s fully healthy and ready to go, it’s a good bet that we might see Hendricks diversify his strategy the second time. He told Sherdog.com’s Andreas Hale that he wants to be exciting—that he wants to “finish fights and keep fans on the edge of their seats”but a takedown here and there wouldn’t hurt, either.

His coaches aren’t tipping their hands, but jiu-jitsu instructor Marc Laimon told Ariel Helwani on The MMA Hour this week they’ve got “a few different game plans prepared for a few different scenarios.”

“I kind of look at this as a whole new fight since the last one,” Laimon said, via MMAFighting.com’s Luke Thomas. “Johny had some injuries going into that fight. He was able to get the ‘W’, but right now it’s a whole different Johny getting ready to fight Robbie Lawler.”

A whole different Johny. Fans should probably like the sound of that.

After the year we’ve had in this sport, however, we’re probably going to have to see it with our own eyes before we believe he’s healthyand more ready than rusty.

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