Ronda Rousey takes center stage at UFC 190 Saturday night as she puts her UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship on the line against Bethe Correia. As always, the question is whether the challenger can at least force the dominant champion to break a sweat.
Other notable fights on the card include Mauricio Rua battling Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, whose twin brother, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will take on Stefan Struve, and there’s also a couple final bouts from The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4.
Let’s examine the odds for all of the matches on the main card and make predictions for each. That’s followed by a preview of the hyped main event.
Odds and Predictions for Main Card
Rousey vs. Correia Preview
Rousey‘s last two fights have lasted a combined 30 seconds, and only once in 11 bouts has she been pushed beyond the first round. Every opponent comes in with a plan they believe can end her extraordinary run of success, and she destroys it in the blink of an eye.
The question is how long overwhelming opponents with such ease will remain entertaining. She’s become one of the biggest draws in the sport since arriving to UFC. Eventually, fans will probably want to see somebody give her a serious test, though.
Correia is also undefeated in her MMA career at 9-0. That includes a 3-0 mark since joining UFC, with her latest victory coming over Shayna Baszler last August.
This marks a massive increase in the level competition, however. Nobody she’s faced in her career can match the power and ground game of Rousey, who’s in a class by herself.
The Brazilian underdog isn’t backing down from the challenge. She explained her plan of attack to Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie through an interpreter .
“I believe in myself,” Correia said. “I’m going to go in there and beat her. I think I can overcome all her strong points. Her weaknesses? I’m not even worried about that. I know what I need to do in there. She doesn’t trade punches. In 11 fights, she’s never really shown her boxing, so I’m going to go in there and box with her.”
It’s clearly the right approach. Correia is at her best when she’s able to stand up and fight, which has allowed her to outscore opponents with seven of her wins coming by decision. And if it moves to the ground, it’s typically only a matter of time before Rousey locks in the armbar.
Of course, being able to execute a game plan like that is much easier said than done. It usually only takes Rousey a matter of seconds to take control of a fight, so expecting to keep her at bay for multiple rounds is an uphill battle to say the least.
The champion has her upcoming schedule laid out, and it certainly doesn’t include a loss on Saturday night, as noted by Damon Martin of FoxSports.com.
“Here’s pretty much the plan,” Rousey said. “I’m going to beat up Bethe, then I’m going to take a couple of weeks to rest, and then I’m going to go beat up Miesha [Tate], and then I’m going to go to like Thailand or wherever we decide to film (“Mile 22″) and prep for like a month, and then start filming for like eight to 10 weeks, and then go beat up the next chick.”
Ultimately, Correia possesses the type of fighting style that could give Rousey problems—in theory. The issue, as highlighted by Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com, is that the talent gap is likely too large to overcome:
All of this equates to somewhat of an unfair fight Saturday. Really, looking back, none of Rousey‘s fights have looked fair, but that hasn’t mattered. Her last appearance at UFC 184 in Los Angeles produced an announced gate of $2.675 million and reportedly drew the largest pay-per-view number of her career in an event she has headlined.
Correia does get to fight in front of what should be a supportive crowd in Rio de Janeiro, and the fact expectations are so low from the outside takes much of the pressure away. But it’s still hard to imagine a scenario where she pulls off the shocking upset.
Expect a longer fight than the last few Rousey has won, but she should still emerge victorious inside the first round. The wait for a fight where she’s pushed to the limit will continue.
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