Holly Holm prevailed in her first two UFC fights, but she faces the biggest test of her career Saturday, Nov. 14: Ronda Rousey. The two will clash at UFC 193 in Melbourne, Australia.
Like the 12 women before her, Holm enters this fight at a decided disadvantage. Rousey is the most dominant athlete in any sport, especially after Floyd Mayweather’s retirement from boxing. Mayweather was the only other star who could challenge Rousey’s mastery over her domain.
The UFC women’s bantamweight champion has won 12 of her professional fights, and only one of those bouts lasted beyond the first round. In addition, nine of her victories have come in one minute or less.
As much as she has done as a boxer and mixed martial arts fighter, Holm’s resume simply doesn’t stack up. She’s 2-0 in UFC and 9-0 in MMA, with her last two victories coming against Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau.
Here’s the tale of the tape between the two fighters:
According to Odds Shark, Holm opened as a 33-4 underdog, and the long odds are to be expected considering Holm doesn’t exactly have a strong body of work through which she has proved herself.
While she went 33-2-3 as a professional boxer, boxing and MMA are two completely different disciplines. Holm can strike with the best of them, but the whole of her skill set is still somewhat lacking, to the extent many questioned whether she has proved herself worthy of a title challenge.
As Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Iole wrote:
There is a school of thought, though, that after UFC officials saw Holm’s first two bouts, they were concerned she’d lose before she would get to Rousey. In order to preserve the matchup between the two unbeaten fighters, they gave her the fight sooner than they otherwise might have, the thinking goes.
Holm has had more time to smooth out some of her rougher edges in the Octagon, but she’s not all of a sudden going to be a significantly different fighter after a few months of training.
The 34-year-old would be wise not to repeat the same game plan she utilized against Reneau back in July. Holm was the more aggressive of the two fighters, and while her strikes didn’t land at a great rate, she connected enough times to secure the victory:
In theory, blitzing Rousey right at the opening bell doesn’t seem like a bad strategy. The champion might be a bit vulnerable as she attempts to get her bearings in the fight.
In practice, just ask Cat Zingano how quickly a fight can turn when you take a more aggressive approach against Rousey:
Holm’s best chance to win will be forcing Rousey to move around the Octagon and use her striking ability, which has never been her forte.
Rousey’s coach, Edmond Tarverdyan, on the other hand, remains confident no amount of running or dodging from Holm will save her, per Submission Radio (via Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda).
It doesn’t matter if she [Holm] tries to keep the distance or how long she wants to keep it. Champ knows exactly what she’s going to be doing in there. And even if she runs, I always say, you can run but you can’t hide. And she’s not going to be able run quicker backwards as Ronda can move forward. That’s not gonna happen. We’re not going to see that. Ronda’s legs are the best.
Simply pushing this fight to Round 2 would be a victory in and of itself for Holm since Miesha Tate is the only woman to do that against Rousey in the past.
Rousey may one day suffer her first defeat in the Octagon. However, Sunday is unlikely to be that day, and Holm is unlikely the person to make it happen.
Note: All fighter stats are courtesy of FightMetric.com.
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