When Nick Diaz decided he was willing to get back in the Octagon after a hiatus from the sport, he made it clear he would only do so for the biggest of fights.
The Stockton, California, native hasn’t fought since March 2013—an extended layoff Diaz attributes partially to waiting on the right opportunity.
“[The UFC] were offering me fights and I wasn’t really interested in the fights they were talking about for pretty much the whole year, so I pretty much just dealt with different aspects of life.” Diaz said, via Paul Quigley of Fighters Only Magazine. “Now we’ve been able to sit down and talk about it a little bit, and I think I was looking for pretty much the biggest fight that I could get myself into, just like always.”
As the old adage goes, be careful what you wish for.
Diaz‘s patience has awarded him the UFC’s biggest star also looking to successfully come back from an extended layoff—Anderson Silva.
The former middleweight titlist will make his long-awaited return to the Octagon, where he is still undefeated against guys not named Chris Weidman.
Still, with both high-profile fighters looking to show they’re back, there’s a lot of intrigue involved in the main event. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the bout along with some predictions as to how it’s going to go down.
Odds via Odds Shark as of Jan. 30, 2014, at 11:00 a.m. ET
Diaz Does Not Outstrike Silva in Any Round
Much has been made of the blistering pace set by Diaz. It’s the welterweight’s calling card as a fighter and the reason for much of his success in his career. The theory goes that his overwhelming pressure could be too much for Silva, who, in his advanced age, might have a deteriorating chin.
Here’s the problem: Great footwork has proven to be Diaz‘s kryptonite. The blueprint for Silva to handle Diaz was laid out by Carlos Condit nearly three years ago. Circle away from the pressure, force him to reset with leg kicks and wait for an increasingly frustrated Diaz to open up opportunities to counter.
That’s a game plan that “Spider” has been perfecting throughout his career. It also led to Condit outstriking Diaz in four out of five rounds, per FightMetric.
Diaz might try to bring the fight to Silva, but it isn’t something that Silva hasn’t seen before. Thanks to his footwork and counterstriking, he’ll land more significant strikes in each round.
Silva Will Show He Trusts His Leg Kicks Early
Ironically, one of Silva’s greatest keys to victory doubles as his biggest question mark: After a leg kick led to a gruesome knee injury, will he trust his instincts and continue to throw them?
Silva admitted back in November to Marc Raimondi of Fox Sports that he’s had to work on recovering mentally as well as physically. “I’ve worked with a psychologist so I can get rid of the ghosts of those horrible moments of that fight, when I had that accident,” Silva said. “I’m a little apprehensive in training. I know I can execute the movement, but I end up not doing it for fear.”
As previously mentioned, fighters who have employed leg kicks against Diaz have been rewarded. His plodding, straightforward style is most easily counteracted by attacking the lead leg with kicks and circling away.
As long as Silva is able to throw those kicks at will, he will be well on his way to a successful game plan. The only unknown is just how confident he’ll be throwing them with the small risk that Diaz may actually check one and cause a freak injury once again.
Silva Will Score the Finish
Nick Diaz has only been stopped twice in his career—once in 2002 and again via doctor’s stoppage in 2007.
There’s no denying his durability. However, the idea that he’s impervious to being finished is a bit flawed.
Even in one of Diaz‘s most memorable performances, a first-round finish of Paul Daley in his final fight with Strikeforce, he was floored twice. Semtex ultimately got knocked out at the end of the round, but the British welterweight is a much more careless striker than Silva.
He also doesn’t have the record of finishing big fights that Silva does. Daley has been a knockout artist in smaller promotions for the vast majority of his career. The Spider is one of the greatest fighters of all time.
That’s a fact he’ll remind everyone of at UFC 183.
Silva via third-round TKO.
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