Bleacher Report lead mixed martial arts writers Jonathan Snowden and Jeremy Botter have banded together—much like a modern-day version of the Justice League—to take on the most important questions facing the MMA world. Welcome to The Question.
Now that Conor McGregor has proven he’s got legitimate star power, setting ratings records on Fox Sports 1, a new question comes to the fore. Will he prove to be equally as devastating in the cage as he is at the box office? He’s established himself as a legitimate contender—but can McGregor beat featherweight world champion Jose Aldo?
Jonathan: Well, Jeremy, it’s official. Although a few naysayers will continue to lurk in comments sections everywhere, it’s clear to everyone with a functional cortex that Conor McGregor is the real thing. He didn’t just beat a tough fringe contender in Dennis Siver—he demolished him.
We’ve always suspected McGregor had the potential to be a box office sensation. His record-breaking performance on Fox Sports 1 proves there is fire alongside that smoke. And that success came before he had established himself as a legitimate contender. Now that he’s officially the top contender, and looks like he’ll be competitive against Aldo at the very least, I’m hopeful MMA, at long last, has a new star on its hands.
Jeremy: I think it’s clear the UFC does, indeed, have a new star on its hands. I wrote as much after the fight on Sunday. McGregor‘s star power and charisma can’t be denied, but we were skeptical if that would transfer into an actual ability to pull in television viewers. I think we’ve become accustomed to seeing a lack of interest in dudes who weigh less than 170 pounds.
But as you said, there is fire with McGregor. He can connect with more than just the casual UFC bro audience. The next step is pay-per-view, but the real McGregor intrigue for me no longer has anything to do with his drawing power. Now, I just want to see him fight Aldo. There are a lot of smart people who are much better than I am at making predictions—and this is not saying much, because I am absolutely terrible with predictions—who believe he has a legitimate chance to dethrone the champion.
I don’t know if I fall into that camp. But McGregor is absolutely a very good fighter, and he has some of the best offensive stand-up technique I’ve seen in a long time. He is relaxed and loose. The left straight punch that repeatedly harmed Siver is pitch perfect in terms of technique. McGregor has always claimed that it’s not about the hype and that his greatest asset is his technique and skill. I’m starting to think he might be right.
Jonathan: More than just technique, it’s the way McGregor‘s skill set was seemingly created with a fight against someone like Aldo in mind.
McGregor is the most active striker in the featherweight division. He pushes the pace and controls the distance with the kind of preternatural genius for spacing and timing that comes so naturally to some. Without fail he backs his opponents up into the cage, lashing out with a left hand that’s one of the most powerful weapons I’ve ever seen from a fighter under 155 pounds.
Aldo is a very different kind of fighter. He’s a counter puncher, content to pick his spots. He’ll look to catch McGregor coming in with a punch that changes the complexion of the fight. What’s so great about Aldo is that he’s very passive until the moment it’s time to strike.
It’s like Road House: He’s calm until it’s time not to be calm. How will you know? He’ll let you know!
Jeremy: I can’t believe you just made a Road House reference. I’m in awe. But you’re right. Aldo is a dude that just sits back and waits for you to come to him. He is not just a counter puncher, he’s a brilliant counter puncher. Couple that with his absolutely devastating leg kicks and you have what has thus far been a recipe for absolute destruction.
But McGregor is a master of space, and he has an extensive reach advantage. This is not a typical Aldo opponent with T. rex arms. The Irishman will have a 4-inch reach advantage on Aldo. More importantly, he knows how to use it. I mean, I don’t know if that’s enough to get the job done. But I think McGregor probably has a better shot at becoming the champion than we thought he did, say, six months ago.
Jonathan: McGregor‘s stance makes him very vulnerable to the leg kick. That’s a bad thing against Aldo. Just ask Urijah Faber. Or look at this picture.
But here’s where it gets interesting—it’s really hard to batter someone with leg kicks when you’re pushed back against the fence. McGregor, like a tiny Irish tidal wave, inevitably places his opponent there, right where he wants him. Of course, it’s easier to do that to the Sivers of the world than it is to impose your will on Aldo.
The other wild card here is the takedown. McGregor is so aggressive that he’s vulnerable to someone dropping levels and putting him on his back. Siver nearly managed it. If Aldo does, it will be something new for both McGregor and fans.
Jeremy, I don’t get excited that easily—but this is the most intriguing fight in all of MMA. Do you think fans see it that way too?
Jeremy: I don’t know if the fans are thinking about the matchup yet, but they’re clearly into McGregor. When he vaulted over the Octagon seconds after putting Siver away and went after Aldo (with no real intention of actually going after Aldo but instead with the intention of promoting the fight), I thought to myself: Here is a man who understands how this thing works. He understands that the money is in the chase.
The problem is that when the Octagon door closes, I’m not sure he has what it takes to beat Aldo. I thought Chad Mendes was going to get the job done, because Mendes is a terrifying ball of terror. But McGregor also has the ability to make us forget about how awesome Aldo is. He has done so not just through his excellent promotional work, but through his fighting. He is very good at fighting. And though I don’t believe the UFC will sell this fight based on fisticuffs—they’ll elect to talk about the bad blood and how THESE TWO MEN HATE EACH OTHER SO BAD because that is what they do—the actual matchup is the best part of this thing.
McGregor has a very real chance to be the featherweight champion in May. I don’t know about you, Jonathan, but the prospect of a longtime champion going down in flames to a new superstar is worth looking forward to.
Jonathan: Combat sports is all about renewal. The old is, inevitably, replaced by the new. Often by force. It’s beautiful and terrible to behold.
But Aldo, despite his five years as world champion, is still only 28 years old. He’s not quite ready to be put out to pasture. He still yearns to be great.
Greatness, however, is a product of adversity. Despite his dominance, we still don’t know whether Aldo has that next gear, the one required to dig deep and overcome the odds. He’s never really faced down a demon like McGregor.
It seems we’ve finally found the man capable of bringing that greatness inside Aldo out. He will have to be at his best to meet this challenge. McGregor can absolutely beat Aldo. Now we face the long wait until May, when we’ll find out if he will.
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