Welterweight bout: B.J. Penn vs Jon Fitch
BJ’s hands are better. He has more power there. Fitch is a zombie and is the bigger fighter. Although BJ’s takedown defense is excellent, he has to make sure Fitch doesn’t get a hold of him otherwise he won’t be able to hop around on one leg against Fitch. Fitch will get BJ to the ground if he gets close. Penn also has a pretty bad going to the decision ratio where Fitch is that pristine grinder who takes and destroys everyone’s will for a full 15 minutes. However, BJ Penn is an underdog in this fight and despite Fitch’s greater wrestling and excellent jiu-jitsu game, Penn has better ground game, and much better stand up game.
Its worth it here to take Penn.
Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping vs Jorge Rivera
Bisping is that pinpoint striker without the power to deal Rivera stopping blow. Rivera however, hasn’t always displayed the conditioning that Bisping has, yet possesses real KO power. Against Bisping taking Rivera here at +250 is just a smart play. On the ground Bisping is more dangerous. I don’t think Bisping is going to finish him on the ground, but Bisping has a big advantage in the submission defense and escape department. If this fight stays on the feet without going to the ground.
The odds are squarely in Rivera’s favor.
Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs Dennis Siver
Despite Siver’s great spinning back kick and duck under overhand right left hook combo, Sotiropoulos should take this victory on the ground. George’s top game is pretty insane.
I’ve got George winning inside 2.
Welterweight bout: Chris Lytle vs Brian Ebersole
Ebersole is American fighting on the other side of the world for basically his whole career. He has wrestling experience and Muay Thai background. However, from what I’ve seen in video, I think Lytle will not have a problem. However, this should be an entertaining fight as both of these guys are very loose on their feet. This is a big step up for Ebersole who has fought on lesser promotions against much less talented fighters. He also stepping in on short notice.
I think Lytle wins this based on a number reasons, but like I said, should be a good fight to watch as both fighter’s styles make for entertaining match up.
Middleweight bout: Kyle Noke vs Chris Camozzi
These two ex-TUF guys I think are a pickem, but I’m leaning towards Noke in his backyard (sorta, NZ).
Preliminary card (Ion TV & ESPN UK & Rogers Sportsnet)
Lightweight bout: Ross Pearson vs Spencer Fisher
I’m excited for this fight. Ross Pearson is a tremendous lightweight and has shown incredible boxing ability overall. I’m taking the younger fighter in Pearson with this match, despite Fisher’s craftiness anywhere the fight goes.
Light Heavyweight bout: James Te-Huna vs Alexander Gustafsson
Pass
Middleweight bout: Nick Ring vs Riki Fukuda
Pass
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Light Heavyweight bout: Anthony Perosh vs Tom Blackledge
No pick
Featherweight bout: Zhang Tie Quan vs Jason Reinhardt
No pick
Preliminary card
Heavyweight bout: Mark Hunt vs Chris Tuchscherer
I’ve got Tuchscherer taking this fight to the ground and beating up Hunt on the ground. Hunt has no submission defense as well. Literally 0.
Lightweight bout: Maciej Jewtuszko vs Curt Warburton
Both rangey fighters. Warbuton fights chin up and Maciej is a very aggressive fighter both on the ground and on his feet. I think Warbuton gets caught with something from Maciej.