UFC 181 is a pretty big deal. Saturday night’s card at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is stacked. At the head of the 12-fight event are two world-title bouts. Anthony “Showtime” Pettis returns to the Octagon for the first time since winning the UFC lightweight title in Aug. 2013.
A knee injury has kept Showtime on the shelf, but he’s back and ready to defend his title against Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez.
The former Strikeforce champion has only had two bouts in the UFC, but he’s made an impression. He lost a close split decision to Benson Henderson, and out-slugged Diego Sanchez in a classic bout in Oct. 2013. On Saturday, he’ll get the first crack at post-injury Pettis.
In the marquee matchup, another champion returns from injury. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks rematches “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. Hendricks won the vacant UFC welterweight title by narrowly defeating Lawler in March.
After the bout, he had to undergo surgery to repair torn bicep. The rematch with Lawler will mark his return to the Octagon.
Since the tough loss, Lawler hasn’t taken time off. He’s beaten Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown to thrust himself right back to the head of the line of contenders for Hendricks’ title.
Lawler is confident and ready for another war. B/R’s Jeremy Botter is hyped for this one:
Here’s a look at the full card, viewing information and predictions for every bout. Just beneath the table is a closer look at the three biggest fights on the card.
Browne’s Elbows Will Stop Big Brown
What can Browne do for you?
Depending on how you spell it, it could be everything in this bout. Travis “Hapa” Browne will try to rebound from a lopsided loss to Fabricio Werdum against Brendan “Big Brown” Schaub.
Big Brown lost a controversial decision to Andrei Arlovski in his last bout, but there’s little chance his bout with Hapa goes the distance.
Only four of Browne’s 19 professional fights have been decided by judges. Schaub’s best method of attack will be to try and take Browne down to the mat. That’s easier said than done.
The 6’7″ Browne has defended 85 percent of the takedowns attempted against him in the UFC. What’s worse than simply thwarting the takedowns are the elbows Browne reigns down on opponents as they attempt to take his legs.
Both Gabriel Gonzaga and Josh Barnett felt the brunt of Browne’s elbow attack while going for the takedown. Schaub is a better athlete than both of those guys, but he’s probably not as physically strong. He’ll get caught in the same danger zone and Browne’s elbows will be Schaub’s undoing.
Pettis is Too Athletic and Versatile
There’s always a chance a fighter can be rusty after such a long layoff, but after watching the way Dominick Cruz exploded back onto the scene with his decimation of Takeya Mizugaki, we know how good world-class fighters can still be after injuries.
Pettis is a hard worker and one of the smartest in-Octagon competitors in the sport. There’s no doubt in my mind he’ll be physically and mentally prepared to face Melendez. At his best, Pettis is too fast for El Nino.
The fact that Pettis has such a wide range of attacks to throw at Melendez only makes the champion’s advantages more pronounced. As a striker, Pettis should be able to consistently get off first. Melendez is smart, and he’ll be looking to counter. However, there’s very few equalizers in the stand-up game for a man who is flat out quicker.
If the fight goes to the ground, Pettis has a plethora of submission finishes, and his dexterity off his back makes him dangerous even if an opponent has top position. Pettis seems to be looking to finish Melendez:
A KO or TKO finish is possible, but I see it going another way.
Showtime will pick Melendez apart early with strikes from the outside, and he’ll submit him in the third round to complete his triumphant return to the Octagon.
Lawler Will Break Hendricks
It wouldn’t be crazy to suggest that because Hendricks hasn’t fought since March, and Saturday’s clash will be Lawler‘s fourth in 2014, that the champion will be the fresher fighter.
That logic makes sense. Only I don’t subscribe to it in this situation.
Hendricks hasn’t been fighting and a good portion of the time away has been spent rehabbing an injury. When you consider Hendricks initially missed weight before the first bout and the fact that he’s returning from a layoff, conditioning could be a concern.
Meanwhile, Lawler has never fallen out of fighting shape. He’s remained focus and dominant while Hendricks has been away.
After beating Ellenberger and Brown and coming within a late takedown of besting Hendricks, Lawler‘s confidence should be sky high.
He’ll need to avoid Hendricks’ attempts to take the rematch to the ground sooner than later. If Lawler can keep the fight standing, he can out-box Hendricks. He’s tasted Bigg Rigg‘s power, and while still formidable, Lawler proved it’s nothing he need be intimidated by.
Late in the fight, Lawler‘s conditioning will take over and he’ll have more energy than Hendricks. This is a tough fight for a guy like Hendricks to take after a layoff, and it’ll show in the last two rounds.
Based on more consistent striking in what will be another great fight, Lawler will win a unanimous decision and the UFC welterweight title.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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