An established and proven champion shares the spotlight with the promotion’s newest titleholder in its brand new division on Saturday night at UFC 185 in Dallas, Texas. In the main event, UFC lightweight champion Anthony “Showtime” Pettis makes his second defense after a long history of excellence with the promotion against No. 1 contender Rafael dos Anjos.
Women’s strawweight belt holder Carla “Cookie Monster” Esparza makes her first defense. She puts her title on the line in the co-feature against the No. 1 contender to her title Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
The action takes place at the American Airlines Arena and there’s a total of 12 scheduled bouts. Three preliminary scraps begin the evening on UFC Fight Pass.
From there four more prelims will be broadcast on FX. The main card kicks off on pay-per-view and has a healthy five fights for fans who buy in. Here’s the card, viewing information and predictions for every fight, as well as picks for fight-night bonuses.
Main Card Analysis
Cariaso vs. Cejudo
The Weight Issue
There’s just about as much intrigue for the weigh-in with this bout as there is for the actual fight. No, Chris Cariaso and Henry Cejudo don’t have any notable bad blood. It’s that Cejudo, an Olympic gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, has had a horrible time making weight at flyweight for previously scheduled bouts in the UFC and Legacy FC.
After his last issue, he was forced to compete at bantamweight and Cejudo easily defeated Dustin Kimura back in Dec. 2014. With another—and possibly final—chance to make 125 pounds, he takes on Cariaso.
The weight deal has become such a compelling backstory, MMA Junkie reports that there are outlets actually taking prop bets on whether Cejudo is over or under the 125-pound weight limit.
In an interview with Ariel Helwani of MMA Fighting, Cejudo claims to have “reverted to a prison lifestyle” in an effort to make 125 pounds. Come Friday night, the scales will eliminate one piece of the intrigue surrounding this bout.
Notable Statistic: Eighty-Four Percent Strike Defense
Once Cejudo gets into the Octagon he’s pretty good. Kimura is a tough fighter and Cejudo dominated him. He stuffed every takedown attempt and had 84 percent striking defense in the bout. When you add that striking skill with Cejudo‘s obvious wrestling prowess, you see part of the reason the UFC is giving Cejudo every opportunity to succeed.
The other side of that is because he’s an Olympic gold medalist whose inclusion with the promotion is easy to market.
Cariaso is Not Intimidated
After having fought and lost in a main event back at UFC 177 against flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, Cariaso feels he’s better prepared for a main card scrap than Cejudo. He told Thomas Gerbasi of UFC.com:
“I see a guy with two arms, two legs, two hands, and with a big head ready to get punched. He’s a good athlete, but I’m a great athlete myself.”
Why Cejudo Will Win
Assuming he makes weight, Cejudo‘s low center of gravity and heavy hands will make for a difficult match for Cariaso. Kamikaze has the edge in speed, but it isn’t significant enough to keep Cejudo from driving him to the mat at some point.
Once the fight goes there, it’s a one-sided affair in favor of Cejudo.
Nelson vs. Overeem
There Will Almost Certainly Be a Knockout
These two big heavyweights bring anvils for fists and increasingly vulnerable chins as their careers progress. Nelson has only been stopped once, but it came in his last fight against Mark “The Super Samoan” Hunt, and it was the kind of knockout that leaves a mark…literally and figuratively.
The average fight time for both men is less than nine minutes. That means if this fight reaches the third round, it’ll be a miracle.
Notable Statistic: Seven Straight Losses by KO/TKO
The last seven times Overeem has tasted defeat, he’s lost by KO or TKO. This streak dates back to 2006 when he lost to Fabricio Werdum via kimura in PRIDE. The last time he lost by decision was to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in 2005.
On the flip side, Overeem has captured five of his last seven victories by KO/TKO. Don’t blink when this one is on. It could be over quickly.
Overeem Patient?
Despite what the numbers and tendencies say, Overeem is indicating he’ll take the cerebral approach to the fight with Nelson. He told E. Spencer Kyte of UFC.com:
I’m a fighter that naturally wants to knock my opponent out. The will is there, but it takes two to tango. You watch tape, you study, you see where the holes are, where the opportunities are at, and sometimes it’s there, sometimes it’s not.
All of that sounds dandy, but when two heavyweights with immense KO power step into The Octagon, it’s best to depend on conventional logic. This fight will end in KO.
Why Overeem Will Win
Nelson is a better wrestler, but he doesn’t have the explosion or cardio to take Overeem to the mat. Nelson’s takedown success percentage is just 17 percent, while Overeem stuffs 70 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.
That leads me to believe this bout will primarily take place standing. In that category, Overeem clearly has the advantage. He’s quicker and he will enjoy a significant eight-inch reach advantage. Look for Overeem to win by a KO of potentially epic proportions.
Hendricks vs. Brown
How Does Big Rigg Bounce Back From Loss?
Per Shaun Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting, former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks feels like he’s “back in college” after becoming leaner in an effort to stay at 170 pounds.
The naturally thick build that Hendricks usually carries might be a thing of the past as he attempts to rebound from his loss to “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler at UFC 181. A change to his lifestyle was in order to attempt to climb the ladder to regain his title.
The first step will be a tough one against the rugged Matt Brown. Both men have good-to-great power, but Brown’s chin and resilience are a thing of legend. He’s proven he can take vicious shots as he did against Erick Silva, and come back to win.
If Hendricks doesn’t fall back on his wrestling and instead pursues the knockout, this could very well be the Fight of the Night.
A Glimpse Into Camp Hendricks
With Hendricks’ more lean physique a topic of conversation, the former champ tweeted this video that shows the work he’s putting in ahead of the bout with Brown.
Notable Statistic: Four Straight Bonuses
Wherever Brown goes, fight-night bonuses seem to follow. He’s earned extra cash in each of his last four fights. Three of those bouts have been the Fight of the Night on their respective cards. This one is my pick to grab the honors on Saturday night as well.
Why Hendricks Will Win
Brown is as tough as they come, but he doesn’t have the power or striking efficiency to put together punches the way Lawler did.
As it pertains to physical strength, Hendricks is a bull once the fight turns into a wrestling match. He’ll have to watch Brown’s tricky submission game, but ultimately Hendricks will wear Brown down and take the victory in an epic fight.
Esparza vs. Jedrzejczyk
Carrying the Strawweights
As the first-ever strawweight champion, Carla Esparza has inherited the responsibility of legitimizing the division. Sharing that responsibility is her opponent Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
This bout is a classic matchup between a grappler (Esparza) and striker (Jedrzejczyk). It could be a great fight that helps to launch the division even more than the The Ultimate Fighter Season 20 did.
The Weird Staredown
Some fighters have quirky habits and Jedrzejczyk is definitely in that number. During the staredowns before her fights, she likes to crouch about waist high in what makes for an odd scene. She told John Morgan and Ken Hathaway of MMA Junkie why she does this:
“I like to look into the eyes of my opponents,” Jedrzejczyk said. “I can see what I can expect – if she’s afraid or not,” Jedrzejczyk said. “Then I feel more confident, more comfortable, more powerful.”
Alrighty. That sounds a lot like the drama before a fatality from Mortal Kombat or something, but whatever works.
Notable Statistic: No Takedowns
Jedrzejczyk has had only eight professional fights, but she hasn’t secured one takedown in her MMA career. Obviously, she’s a striker but that represents a pretty significant hole in her game.
Why Esparza Will Win
Jedrzejczyk doesn’t possess the power to dramatically stop Esparza. The challenger only has a 25 percent KO rate in her career. Her average fight lasts 15 minutes. There’s no way she’ll be able to win a grind-it-out battle against Esparza.
This fight is going to go to the ground and Esparza will exert her dominance there.
Pettis vs. Dos Anjos
Can Pettis Continue to Prove He’s Elite?
Showtime has defeated Benson Henderson twice in his career, Donald Cerrone, Joe Lauzon, Gilbert Melendez and Jeremy Stephens.
Even in his two professional losses, he’s never really been hurt, There’s no questioning his talent and dynamic ability. However, on Saturday he faces a no-flash, no-frills, dangerous opponent in Dos Anjos. This is a significant test as Pettis attempts to line up the challengers en route to legendary status.
Not Going to Talk a Big Game
It would seem Pettis shouldn’t have to sell himself to anyone. His athleticism and skill should do all the talking. Still, the lightweight champion has to answer questions about his popularity—or lack thereof. Pettis told Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Iole:
“If I went out and talked crazy, I could get some attention, but then I’d be acting like something I’m not and I’m not interested in doing that.”
Pettis is humble, but all about business in the Octagon. Being Conor McGregor works for Conor McGregor. It’s good Pettis isn’t feeling the need to alter who he is to get a few more fans.
Notable Statistic: 77-15
That is the combined record of the last three men Pettis has faced and defeated—each of them by stoppage. The names of those fighters are: Melendez, Cerrone and Henderson. That’s a pretty impressive list of fighters to have faced, let alone to have beaten.
Why Pettis Will Win
The champion simply has too many facets to his game. Pettis is tough to hit, comfortable off his back, quick and unpredictable in his striking and he’s tough. When Melendez pressed him and tried to force the action, he landed some shots, but Pettis didn’t fade as some might have expected.
Instead, he bit down on his mouthpiece and landed counter punches that changed the fight.
Dos Anjos is likely going to try to apply pressure himself. Pettis will be even more prepared for this strategy as he’s just seen it in his last fight. While I wouldn’t rule out a highlight-reel head kick from the champion, I feel more comfortable predicting a submission win in the second round.
A guillotine choke that starts with the champion on the bottom seems like a logical ending.
All stat, height and reach references per FightMetric.com
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