A lot of moving pieces—that’s the best way to describe the light heavyweight division as UFC 192 approaches.
Daniel Cormier was poised to make the first defense of his 205-pound title against Alexander Gustafsson when an Albuquerque judge on Tuesday cleared the way for former champion Jon Jones to return to the Octagon.
That means not only are Cormier and Gustafsson now fighting over an extra disputed version of the light heavyweight championship on Saturday, but they might each be vying for a rematch with Jones too. While it’s still too early to tell, it’s tough to imagine the 205-pound GOAT will be out much longer.
In addition to that, former champion Rashad Evans finally returns from a lengthy injury timeout. He’ll meet Ryan Bader in what could turn out to be a No. 1 contender fight. At the very least, the winner will be right there nipping at the heels of whoever emerges from the Cormier-Gustafsson-Jones love triangle with the belt.
Which is to say nothing of Anthony Johnson, who does not fight this weekend but nonetheless casts a very long shadow.
There’s a lot going on, and it has never been more difficult to separate the fact from the fiction. Luckily, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that’s me) and Jonathan Snowden are here to lend a helping hand.
Read on to find out what’s really going on at UFC 192…
Fact or Fiction: A big win makes Daniel Cormier’s title claims a little less preposterous.
Jonathan: Fiction. This is sort of a trick question. If Cormier goes out and demolishes Gustafsson, a man who pushed Jones to the limit, it would certainly be a big statement heading into a rematch. At the very least it would suggest Cormier has figured out a way to deal with extreme deficits in height and reach.
But the question, by its very nature, assumes Cormier is going to dispatch the taciturn Swede. I’m not so sure that’s true. While Cormier sometimes managed to sneak inside on the much longer Jones, the former champion isn’t nearly as fastidious as Gustafsson about maintaining distance. While he’s happy to grind a fool up at range, he secretly loves it when someone dares clinch with him.
And why not? Jones is merely the best inside fighter in the world.
Gustafsson will work much harder to keep Cormier on the outside. While the former Olympian is too good a fighter to be completely stymied, I see Gustafsson potentially keeping Cormier at bay on his way to a decision win.
The good news? Cormier’s preposterous reign ends, as it should, in ignominy. The bad news? An even more absurd champion is crowned. Chad, can we just have Jones back already?
Chad: As a matter of fact, Jonathan, yes. A folksy Albuquerque judge swept many of the obstacles to Jones’ return off the table on Tuesday. The UFC will now review his plea agreement before making any employment decision, but it appears we’re just a couple signatures away from having him back.
While that’s good news, I can’t match your scorn for Cormier’s reign. No, I don’t believe he’s the best light heavyweight in the world, but he didn’t do anything wrong by being second best, either. While Jones was on indefinite ice, the best-available move was to have the best-available guys fight for the vacant title—and Cormier turned out to be the best available.
He’ll beat Lusty Gusty handily Saturday. Seriously, who’s the Swede’s biggest win? Shogun Rua? Therefore, I’m going to say the initial statement is fact. The victory will make Cormier’s run less preposterous. With any luck, his rematch against Jones in April will be preposterously awesome too.
Jonathan: Fairly or not, Gustafsson is considered an elite light heavyweight on the strength of his best loss, not any of his wins. He pushed Jones to his limit, the same Jones who made Cormier burst into tears. Gustafsson proved that small victories can emerge from the cocoon of defeat, springing up the rankings based on what he almost did rather than anything he actually accomplished.
We’ve seemingly all accepted that fight as a de facto draw—and agreed to rank him accordingly. It’s the only explanation, unless Jimi Manuwa inexplicably carries a lot of weight with fans and the UFC’s ranking committee.
No matter who wins, it’s ultimately just two guys Jones beat fighting for his gold-plated leftovers. The world knows Jones is the real champion. Anyone else carrying the strap is a fraud.
Fact or Fiction: Johny Hendricks beats Tyron Woodley in the surprise Fight of the Night.
Chad: Fact. Co-main eventers Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley haven’t gotten much media shine leading up to UFC 192. They’ve been summarily overshadowed by one Jones court appearance and a UFC marketing strategy that prefers to focus on Gustafsson being kinda tall:
Both welterweights come into this bout on odd footing, having been passed over for No. 1 contender status in favor of the returning Carlos Condit. They’ve both said things fans may not exactly consider endearing. They’re both fighting for a higher spot in the divisional pecking order and to make their cases as guys who could be compelling future challengers for champion Robbie Lawler.
You know what? They succeed on Saturday. Or, at least, one of them does. I’m saying Hendricks gets back to the brawling style that made his two past fights with Lawler so popular. He puts the heat on Woodley and reclaims his position as top challenger after an action-packed bout that ends up earning both guys $50K performance-based bonuses.
Jonathan: There’s a lot going on in this fight. The two men actually met on the mats in college back in 2005. In a controversial match for the Big 12 championship, Woodley was penalized a point for biting Hendricks’ finger. He says he didn’t do any chomping and that Hendricks was the true villain for fish-hooking him.
While that kind of bad blood could lead to stand-and-Wang style fisticuffs, I think it’s more likely to end up as a glorified grappling match. That will be amazing for fans of Jon Fitch. For everyone else, it may end up being a bit of a snoozer.
Chad: Oh, ye of little faith. Look, we already know Hendricks is mad that fans didn’t stand up and demand the UFC make him No. 1 contender. We already know Woodley has a reputation among fight company brass of tanking on the big stage.
If either of these guys wants to prove he’s worthy of prime-time consideration, here’s their chance. To do it, it’s going to take more than just some rasslin’ and considerable gnashing of teeth.
Fact or Fiction: Ryan Bader spoils Rashad Evans’ return to action.
Chad: Fact-a-mundo. There’s no way to tell exactly what we’re dealing with in Evans. At 36 years old, he returns after roughly 23 months on the shelf and multiple knee surgeries. The folks at Odds Shark like his chances against Ryan Bader, but calling Evans the “favorite” in any MMA fight right now seems speculative at best.
He was once among the best fighters in the division, but we just won’t know if he’s capable of reclaiming that standing until we see him out there. If injuries have robbed him of any of his previous speed or mobility, then he might merely be an undersized 205-pounder with a good wrestling base.
Say what you want about Bader, but he’s a big, capable dude who rolls in on a four-fight win streak. There’s just too much rust on Evans here. Bader pulls the upset.
Jonathan: I’m torn here. I believe in full disclosure Chad, so it’s important I point out up front that I am totally in the tank for Evans. I’ve done two extensive profiles on the guy and really admire him as an athlete and a person.
In theory we’re supposed to dump all of that overboard when we make our fight picks. And I’ll try my best. But I just can’t see Rashad losing to Bader.
Listen, Bader is a solid enough fighter. He has solid wrestling and some pop in his punches. None of that is enough to handle Evans, who has made a career of beating up wrestlers with pop (Chuck Liddell and Rampage Jackson come to mind).
One of the advantages of being a former champion is a bank account sizable enough that Evans could delay his return until he was truly ready. I trust, if he’s getting into the cage, he’s ready. And if he’s ready, he’s too much for Bader.
Chad: I agree with you that Evans is absolutely likable, Jon—a guy, in fact, who breaks the mold in sports by actually listening to reporters’ questions, thinking about them and then trying give an honest answer. Hard to find anything to criticize there.
I also agree with you that the Evans we know—the one who is 14-3-1 during a near 10-year career in the Octagon—would handle Bader. But I feel I’ve been down the road too many times where an aging champion returns from a long injury layoff and gets immediately served with a tough comeback fight.
I’m not saying I want this particular installment of the Evans story to end like this. I’m just saying I know how it ends.
Fact or Fiction: Julianna Pena officially enters the Ronda Rousey sweepstakes.
Jonathan: Fact. Julianna Pena (7-2) is currently the No. 12 fighter in the UFC’s women’s bantamweight division. At least according to the official UFC rankings, a malleable arbiter of fighter standing since 2013. In theory that means there are a lot of warm bodies between Pena and the champ Ronda Rousey—perhaps most importantly 135 pounds of Jessica Eye at UFC 192.
But if Pena can get past Eye, currently ranked No. 6, she’s on the fast track to title contention. Look no further than Holly Holm to see a case study in action. Rousey, you see, has already dispatched most of the fighters in the top 10. That means a fighter who makes a splash in the bottom half of the division can see huge rewards for her trouble.
Beating Eye would be the cannonball into the deep end that Pena needs. With her brute strength and athleticism, she’s more than capable of taking Eye to the mat and crumbling her defenses with fight-ending ground-and-pound.
While the reward is an opportunity to get armbarred by Rousey in 30 seconds, that’s about as good as it gets for a young fighter at bantamweight. So…congratulations?
Chad: Eh, probably fiction. Don’t get me wrong, Pena could totally defeat Eye, who is just 1-2-1 in her UFC career and coming off a winnable fight against Miesha Tate that she let slip through her fingers in July.
But as for Rousey sticking around the Octagon long enough to start picking off Johnny-come-latelys like Pena? I have my doubts.
Her Rowdiness already has the date with Holm scheduled for November and smart money says she’s eventually going to end up with a big-money superfight against Cris “Cyborg” Justino. In addition to that, I have an easier time believing matchmakers would set her up with a third fight against Tate—which they tried to do already—or even a rematch with somebody like Cat Zingano before they throw Pena to the wolves.
So I guess the question is, how many UFC fights does Rousey have left in her before she leaves us forever in favor of a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face? Three? Four? And is that enough to sneak Pena in there? I doubt it.
Jonathan: Ronda Rousey already has a career where she doesn’t get punched in the face.
Chad: Touché.
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