There are plenty of reasons to tune into UFC 197, but the return of Jon Jones in the main event is chief among them.
The pound-for-pound kingpin will return to the Octagon against Ovince Saint Preux in the first step toward reclaiming the light heavyweight belt he never lost in the cage.
It’s not the grudge match against Daniel Cormier that everyone wanted. That will have to wait. But it is arguably the best fighter in the world once again doing his thing. And that’s something fans won’t want to miss.
Here’s a look at the tale of the tape along with the latest odds from Odds Shark for the bout:
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Pre-Weigh-In Hype
As the odds indicate, this isn’t about an even matchup. This is about the return of Jon Jones. The former champion is finally back in the Octagon after 16 months away from the cage and being stripped of his belt.
It looked like fans were going to have to wait even longer for the return of Bones when Cormier was forced out, but Jones felt he owed it to the fans to make sure the show went on after he infamously elected not to fight a short-notice replacement at UFC 151, per Shaun Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting:
I want to make things right for UFC 151. I want to do something for my fans, something positive. I know people who have been saving up months to make it out to Vegas for this fight. I know guys who, this is their anniversary gift or birthday gift from people, and I was like, you know what, I’ve put my fans through so much already. I need to get out there and just put it on the line. So I said I’ll fight anybody. They came up with Ovince.
This fight has been light on trash talk between the buildup, but Jones doesn’t sound like a man concerned about his opponent. Instead, he sounds like a man talking about doing charity work, putting on the show that the working man wants to see.
However, for Saint Preux, this is the biggest fight of his life. It’s an opportunity that he isn’t about to take lightly.
“My trainer always thought that I would match up very well against Jon and that was another good reason to actually take the fight,” OSP said, per E. Spencer Kyte of UFC.com. “When they threw the interim title in there, if I was walking around at 280 (pounds), I would have found a way to make it to 205.”
OSP hasn’t engaged much in trash talk either, but he does believe that he has a legitimate advantage over Jones—power. He talked about his fight-changing power in a short video posted on the UFC’s Twitter account:
Saint Preux and Jones isn’t the only storyline coming into this bout. The presence of Jones’ nemesis and a UFC 200 card that have a main event opening will also loom over this event.
According to Damon Martin of Fox Sports, Jones has already said he’d be willing to step in and save the event after Conor McGregor was recently pulled from the card. Add in the fact that Cormier is slated to be a commentator for the fight with Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg, and it feels like this fight is simply serving as an appetizer to a title fight between Jones and Cormier.
Predictions
You’ll be hard-pressed to find someone that is actually going to take OSP to defeat Jones. There are too many factors going against Saint Preux to pick him with much confidence.
In addition to him stepping up on short notice, this is a Jon Jones that has had time to make changes to his life that would result in a more focused fighter. For a guy who has already been one of, if not the most accomplished champions in the sport, that’s a scary thought.
But jumping right into the cage with a dangerous opponent like Saint Preux still carries some risk.
Matthew Coca of CBS Sports stops short of picking OSP, but lays out three reasons he can beat Bones, including potential ring rust for Jones:
OSP is a relentless striker. He starts the fight off in flurries, really getting to his opponent. Jon Jones has not fought since January 2015. Since then, St. Preux has fought three times with one of those fights being in February of this year. He needs to take advantage of Jones’ ring rust because when a fighter has that long of a layoff, it will show itself early. Jones is arguably the best fighter of all time, but that does not mean that he will not suffer from any rust. St. Preux has to find a way to get to Jones early in this fight if he wants to win.
Saint Preux certainly has knockout power. He’s picked up nine of his 19 wins by way of knockout, and the former collegiate football player can lay claim to being one of the best athletes in the division.
If you’re looking for ways that Jones could lose this fight, that’s your ticket. With the possibility of ring rust, it’s within the realm of possibility that OSP blitzes a slow-starting Jones and picks up a shocking TKO.
What’s more likely is the end that Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports foresees:
In the end, OSP is dangerous because of his speed and power, and the fact that he’s a completely different fighter than the man Jones has been preparing for. Jones is still the smart pick, here, however, because his wrestling, conditioning, and big-fight experience.
Prediction: Jones by fourth-round ground strike stoppage
Cepeda’s prediction sounds right. Saint Preux makes for an interesting enough opponent. The fact that he’s a southpaw with an 80-inch reach that can combat Jones’ record 84-inch reach gives OSP a level playing field that few get to see with Jones.
The only problem with that is how well-rounded Jones is. Even in a perfect world where OSP’s reach and striking are able to help him land big shots against Jones, the former champion is always one successful takedown away from completely dominating a round from top position.
Expect the stand-up exchanges to be lively when Jones isn’t dominating the clinch and ground. Ultimately, it won’t be enough for OSP to make any real headway in shocking the world.
Prediction: Jones by 4th-round TKO
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