UFC 209 Betting Preview: Woodley vs. Thompson Odds, Analysis

Top welterweight contender Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson was not at his best in the first meeting with champion Tyron Woodley for the title belt at UFC 205 last November, yet he still left the Octagon without a loss.
Thompson (13-1-1) and Woodley (…

Top welterweight contender Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson was not at his best in the first meeting with champion Tyron Woodley for the title belt at UFC 205 last November, yet he still left the Octagon without a loss.

Thompson (13-1-1) and Woodley (16-3-1) battled to a majority draw at Madison Square Garden in New York City, and the former is favored for the second time this Saturday night in the rematch at UFC 209 Saturday in Las Vegas.

T-Mobile Arena will be the site of two championship fights after three belts were on the line the last time Woodley and Thompson squared off. The co-main event will see Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0) meet Tony Ferguson (22-3) for the interim lightweight title as well; champion Conor McGregor is taking most of 2017 off.

Just like the first matchup, Thompson is viewed as the better fighter in the eyes of sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark as solid -160 chalk (bet $160 to win $100) despite not holding the belt. He was nearly stopped in the fourth round by Woodley last time but rallied to hang on and leave with a draw. The lone setback of Thompson’s career remains a unanimous-decision loss to Matt Brown in 2012.

 

Meanwhile, Woodley, a +130 underdog (bet $100 to win $130), has felt disrespected by the organization and oddsmakers, and he does not seem to be taking this rematch as seriously because he thought he clearly earned a victory. Woodley has also publicly stated that he believes he should be marketed more as the reigning champ.

However, many MMA fans feel the first meeting between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson is the more highly anticipated bout of the two based on their banter over the past year.

Each has proven himself as a worthy contender for the lightweight title held by McGregor, and they have both campaigned hard for fighting each other through social media. With McGregor more focused on a boxing match against Floyd Mayweather after his first child is born, it made sense to make this interim title matchup.

Nurmagomedov had threatened to leave the organization if he did not get a title shot, and he is the only fighter in the division who could seriously challenge McGregor. That is why he is listed as a -185 favorite over Ferguson (+150), even though his opponent has won more bouts inside the Octagon and has a nine-fight winning streak on the line.

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