Featherweight interim champion Max Holloway has long been wondering where Jose Aldo has been, and on Saturday night, he’ll find him across the cage at UFC 212.
The division has been in the shadow of Conor McGregor, who won the UFC’s featherweight title in 2015 only to leave the division in waiting to fight at welterweight, lightweight and potentially box Floyd Mayweather Jr. Since then, the division has had two interim champions and promoted Aldo to the championship belt that he once held for years.
Since McGregor‘s exit, it’s felt hollow. But that will end with this fight. It’s clear with McGregor gone that these are the two best featherweights in the sport right now, and the fight promises to be a barn burner.
The championship bout isn’t the only one to catch on Saturday. It’s a card spotted with intriguing fights and contenders looking to make a claim to a title shot.
Here’s the complete list, along with where you can catch each fight and odds from OddsShark.
UFC 212 Fight Card and Odds
PPV at 10 p.m. ET
- Jose Aldo -125 vs. Max Holloway -105
- Claudia Gadelha -280 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +220
- Vitor Belfort -160 vs. Nate Marquardt +130
- Paulo Borrachinha -350 vs. Oluwale Bamgbose +265
- Erick Silva EVEN vs. Yancy Medeiros -130
Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET
- Marlon Moraes -175 vs. Raphael Assuncao +145
- Antonio Carlos Junior -225 vs. Eric Spicely +175
- Matthew Lopez -210 vs. Johnny Eduardo +170
- Iuri Alcantara -315 vs. Brian Kelleher +245
Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Viviane Pereira -130 vs. Jamie Moyle EVEN
- Luan Chagas -250 vs. Jim Wallhead +195
- Marco Beltran +125 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo -155
Storylines to Watch
How Good is Paulo Borrachinha?
Right now, Brazil is down to two UFC champions. Jose Aldo and Amanda Nunes are the only ones from the traditionally talent rich nation holding a belt, and Aldo faces a very real challenge in Max Holloway.
So there’s a real possibility that by the end of the night the country will be down to just one title holder. Whereas the nation used to have the likes of Anderson Silva, Shogun Rua and Vitor Belfort in title contention, there are few Brazilians coming down the pike.
That’s why Paulo Borrachinha is such an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on. The 26-year-old Brazilian has made a name for himself on the country’s regional circuit with a 9-0 record that features all first-round finishes.
It’s a trend that he continued in his UFC debut, violently making short work of Garreth McLellan in the first round in March:
Standing across the cage from Borrachinha will be a fellow heavy-handed middleweight in Oluwale Bamgbose. The 29-year-old is 6-2 with all six of those wins coming by way of first-round finish.
It’s not likely to last long, but the amount of time this fight does last should be a blazing fire fight. If Borrachinha can take out a dangerous striker like Bamgbose this fast on a pay-per-view main card, his stock is going to see a huge uptick.
Prediction: Borrachinha via first-round TKO
Who Is the Second-Best Women’s Strawweight?
Joanna Jedrzejczyk has made it clear that she’s the best women’s strawweight on the planet.
Joanna Champion’s five straight title defenses have made that abundantly clear. What’s still up for debate, though, is who No. 2 is in that pecking order. Currently Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz are No. 1 and 2 in the rankings, respectively, and they’ll settle the score in the cage in the co-main event.
Kowalkiewicz is making her first UFC appearance since losing to the champion. It’s always interesting to see how a challenger responds after losing a title fight, but the UFC certainly set her up with a tough challenge coming off a loss.
Both fighters like to be the aggressor in the action, so who takes control of the Octagon will be important to watch. In a battle of pressure fighters, Gadelha believes she’s the better of the two.
“I’m the best pressure fighter in the division. When it comes to that pressure, I do better than her,” Gadelha said, per Fernanda Prates and John Morgan of MMAjunkie. “And that’s the whole point about her game. She’s good on her feet, but she gives a lot of opportunities to somebody like me to take advantage of.”
With both fighters looking to pressure the other, the clinch could play a vital role in this matchup. That’s something that should favor the Brazilian. Gadelha is not only a proficient striker in the clinch, but she can use it to set up her grappling, which is a strength.
Kowalkiewicz is as tough as they come in the division. She’ll make things interesting and put Gadelha in some bad spots, but it’s hard to deny Gadelha‘s more well-balanced game and grappling.
Ultimately, her strength advantage should come into play in the clinch as she controls Kowalkiewicz to a decision.
Prediction: Gadelha via decision
Is Jose Aldo Still the King of the Featherweight Division?
Once McGregor decided he was interested in doing everything else but defending his 145 pound belt, it didn’t take long for Jose Aldo to reclaim the crown that he wore so long before The Notorious took it away.
Just when it seemed like McGregor‘s 13-second knockout might have taken the champion’s soul, Aldo comes back with one of the most complete performances of his career with a unanimous decision victory over Frankie Edgar at UFC 200.
Now he’s been promoted to undisputed champion and faces a tough challenge in Max Holloway. The Hawaiian doesn’t have the experience of Aldo, but he hasn’t lost since 2013 to McGregor and has wins over a who’s who of featherweight veterans such as Anthony Pettis, Ricardo Lamas and Cub Swanson.
Looking at the numbers from Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, the two are in a dead heat statistically:
The result is a featherweight title fight that should tell us a lot about the future of the division post-McGregor. Is this still the division that Aldo ruled over since its inception in the UFC? Or is this now a division run by a fighter who has officially run the gamut from prospect to champion?
At this point, it’s hard to prognosticate just where Aldo is at, and that’s the most important piece to the puzzle. On one hand, he’s in his 29th fight with many bouts against the best in his division for years. There’s always going to be the question of how much the McGregor knockout might be a sign that Aldo’s chin is waning.
However, his dominant performance against Edgar turned back the clock fairly quickly.
Holloway isn’t McGregor. He’s a dynamic and technical striker, but he lacks the same one punch power the Irishman brings to the cage.
At the same time, Holloway is an excellent pressure fighter who fights at a much higher pace than Aldo is accustomed to. With some of the invincibility now gone, Holloway should be able to apply that pressure consistently.
There’s always the chance of an early knockout with Aldo’s ability to counter. But the more likely scenario is that Holloway’s volume ultimately makes Aldo fight at a pace that he’s not comfortable with and the featherweight division finally gets its new king.
Prediction: Holloway via decision
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