Since Conor McGregor left the UFC’s featherweight division, it has been a bit cloudy at the top. Both Jose Aldo and Max Holloway have won interim titles, but the Brazilian was later promoted to champion.
On Saturday night at UFC 212, all of that silly business will come to an end, and we will have a champion crowned in the cage.
With McGregor off to line his pockets with some of that Floyd Mayweather Jr. money, the division that he once owned will finally get some closure, as the two best fighters left will square off for the title.
It’s a classic matchup of longtime champion and up-and-comer, as an all-time great in Aldo will look to stave off the charge of the 25-year-old Holloway. Despite Aldo’s impressive career as the most decorated featherweight in the history of the division, the oddsmakers see the fight as a near pick ’em.
Here’s a look at the complete card with odds from OddsShark, ticket information and predictions for the biggest fights on the card.
UFC 212 Fight Card and Odds
PPV at 10 p.m. ET
- Jose Aldo -125 vs. Max Holloway -105
- Claudia Gadelha -280 vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz +220
- Vitor Belfort -160 vs. Nate Marquardt +130
- Paulo Borrachinha -350 vs. Oluwale Bamgbose +265
- Erick Silva EVEN vs. Yancy Medeiros -130
Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET
- Marlon Moraes -175 vs. Raphael Assuncao +145
- Antonio Carlos Junior -225 vs. Eric Spicely +175
- Matthew Lopez -210 vs. Johnny Eduardo +170
- Iuri Alcantara -315 vs. Brian Kelleher +245
Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Viviane Pereira -130 vs. Jamie Moyle EVEN
- Luan Chagas -250 vs. Jim Wallhead +195
- Marco Beltran +125 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo -155
Tickets: Score Big
Key Fights
Marlon Moraes vs. Raphael Assuncao
A lot of potential Fight of the Night candidates get slotted as the final prelim fight before the pay-per-view, and that’s a tradition that continues with the bantamweight fight between Raphael Assuncao and Marlon Moraes that closes the Fox Sports 1 prelims.
Assuncao should be a familiar name to UFC fans. The 34-year-old is 8-1 in his last nine fights since 2011 with his only loss coming against T.J. Dillashaw in a rematch at UFC 200.
Moraes is a familiar name outside of UFC circles. The Brazilian has spent the majority of his career in the World Series of Fighting, where he went a perfect 11-0 with a serious run as the bantamweight champion in the organization.
The UFC matchmakers are putting him right in the fire with this one, though. Assuncao has plenty of experience in the Octagon and a well-rounded game. While he doesn’t throw a ton of strikes—he only lands 3.37 strikes per minute, according to FightMetric—Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow believes that Assuncao can outbox his counterpart.
Moraes will look to pressure—he’s finished his last four opponents in WSOF and is looking to make a big impression in his debut here.
“Raphael is a complex fighter, but my biggest advantage is that I’m hungry,” Moraes said, per Greg Rosenstein of ESPN.com. “I’m very hungry, and I can’t wait to get out there. … I’m going to bring a unique style—Marlon Moraes style. I’m going to mix it up with everything. On Saturday I want to put together the best performance of my life, and I think you guys are going to see it.”
Many highly anticipated debuts of another organization’s champion have been ruined when going against a wily UFC veteran, though. Assuncao is cut from that cloth and could make things difficult for the former WSOF champion.
With Moraes pressing to make an impression, pacing is going to be key to watch in this fight. If Assuncao can slow the fight down and frustrate Moraes, his debut could be spoiled.
Prediction: Assuncao via decision
Claudia Gadelha vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
The evening’s co-main event is the biggest fight that the UFC could make in the women’s strawweight division without champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Both Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz have had varying degrees of success against the champion. Both are undefeated when it comes to fighting people not named Jedrzejczyk.
Gadelha and Kowalkiewicz couldn’t be more different as fighters. Gadelha is a powerhouse. She’s great at using her compact frame to secure takedowns and can ragdoll opponents in the clinch. She averages 4.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, and six of her 14 wins have come by way of submission.
Despite that dominance, Gadelha has come up short twice against the champion. She believes now that she’s an even more evolved fighter as she looks for the edge to finally get her past Jedrzejczyk, per AG. Fight.
“I’ve evolved in everything [since I’ve changed camps.] In the last few months, I’ve become a new fighter, with a different head, with a totally different game. I’ve improved everything I do: wrestling, jiu-jitsu, boxing. The physical part, which was my biggest deficiency. I hired a trainer here from a university, and that makes a difference. Training knowing that I will not get tired will leave me with a calm mind. The physical part was the one that improved the most.”
Kowalkiewicz on the other hand, doesn’t necessarily possess a notable attribute like Gadelha‘s strength, but a relentless tenacity on the feet that allows her to put opponents in uncomfortable positions. The Polish fighter doesn’t have the technique of Jedrzejczyk but presents a generic brand of that striking game from distance.
For the 31-year-old, this fight has little to do with Gadelha and more to do with getting in a spot for revenge against her fellow Polish fighter.
“I think if I beat Claudia, I will be fighting for that title again,” Kowalkiewicz said, per Jim Edwards of Champions.co. “It would be logical because I already beat Rose last year. That’s my opinion, but to be honest, I’m not thinking about it much at the moment—I’m focused on Gadelha and only Gadelha.”
Getting past Gadelha is a tall order, though. The Brazilian is so good at closing the distance and dominating the clinch and ground game. It’s easy to see her doing just that to Kowalkiewicz.
Kowalkiewicz will look to keep this a firefight on the outside, but Gadelha has shown the ability to keep Jedrzejczyk from doing that for extended periods of time, and Kowalkiewicz isn’t Jedrzejczyk.
Prediction: Gadelha via decision
Jose Aldo vs. Max Holloway
No matter what way you cut it, this has instant classic written all over it.
Aldo is already a legend of the sport. He’s lost just two fights in his career and is one of only two UFC featherweight champions.
Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie summed up the champion’s impressive career:
But eras always eventually come to an end, and Holloway is looking to be the man that brings the Aldo era to an official end. The interim champion spent a lot of time specifically campaigning for this fight, but he is ready to back up all that talk with a great performance.
“I did a lot of talking, but all the talking is done. Now we’ve got the fight June 3. I hope he comes prepared, because I’m coming prepared, and that’s what we’re going to do. I respect the guy, but at the end of the day, it’s a new era,” Holloway said, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. “It’s time to show the world who Max Holloway is and if they don’t know who Max Holloway is, they’re about to find out June 3.”
Of course Aldo isn’t ready to give up this division quite yet. He understands new contenders are rising up and looks forward to turning them each away from his title.
“I think it’s going to be a great fight. I think that we’ve had great fights in the past and he’s built himself up to title contention,” Aldo said, per Martin. “But, you know, it really doesn’t matter to me. I have goals of my own right now and different things that I have been thinking of and going in there to defend my belt once again.”
The action itself promises to live up to the hype. This fight is a true toss up, and it could come down to who can control the pace.
Holloway loves to pressure and push a high pace throughout the fight. He’s averaging 5.67 significant strikes landed per minute while Aldo prefers to pick and choose his shots at a slower pace. As one of the best snipers in the sport he lands 3.28 significant strikers per minute and only gets his 2.09 times per minute.
This should be an epic game of tug of war, with both fighters taking turns imposing their game plan on each other. In a five-round fight, the more active fighter will have the advantage in the judges’ eyes, and that gives Holloway the slight advantage as the fight progresses.
Prediction: Holloway via decision
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