When the curtains part in Belem, Brazil, the UFC will have nowhere to go but up.
That has to be the hope, anyway. Saturday’s uninspiring UFC on Fox 27 set a record low for TV ratings for the UFC on Fox series, per Dave Meltzer for MMA Fighting. And this was an event that aired on Fox, as opposed to cable network Fox Sports 1.
That is not good. Although it’s impossible nail down a single cause for this stuff, it may well be that the UFC’s insistence on holding a card more or less every weekend is starting to catch up with it. UFC cards used to be deep. That’s not the case anymore, with diluted talent at every turn. Surely this isn’t what UFC brass is looking for as it negotiates a new broadcast deal.
So when UFC Fight Night 125 airs Saturday on FS1, the promotion has to be hoping for a rebound. No, a single cable card isn’t going to make or break anything, but doesn’t that notion help illustrate the problem?
In any event, this is a fun card dotted with fun fights. Here are the three you can’t miss from Brazil.
Middleweight
Lyoto Machida (22-8) vs. Eryk Anders (10-0)
Odds: Anders -280, Machida +240
Airs on: Fox Sports 1
Wanna feel old? Lyoto Machida is 39. Fans who have watched him over the past couple of years are probably not so shocked by that. He’s dropped three straight and four of five, with an 18-month suspension for taking a banned substance sandwiched in that run.
Eryk Anders is one of the hottest names in the division. The former University of Alabama linebacker has formidable boom in his hands, delivering a knockout to Rafael Natal in his UFC debut last summer. He has the strength of an ox and a good gas tank, even if the rest of his game remains a bit of a question mark—especially at this level.
Machida has enjoyed a great career, but he is living on his name. His past two losses both came by knockout. Anders may be unproven in some ways, but it won’t matter for this fight. The Brazilian faithful aren’t going home happy.
Anders, KO, Rd. 2.
Bantamweight
John Dodson (19-9) vs. Pedro Munhoz (15-2)
Odds: Dodson -155, Munhoz +135
Airs on: Fox Sports 1
It might be predictable to have two of the three can’t-miss fights be the main and co-main event. But this is a top-heavy card. Unless you are pumped to the rafters for Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales or the squash match-in-waiting that is Valentina Shevchenko vs. Priscila Cachoeira, this is about as good as it gets on this card—or in the bantamweight division.
John Dodson is 2-2 since returning to 135 pounds. He needs a big win to stay in the metaphorical mix. With his blazing speed and one-punch knockout power, he can get it in a flash.
Pedro Munhoz is well-rounded with some smooth striking, but grappling is his sharpest weapon. Nine of the jiu-jitsu black belt’s 15 pro wins have come by submission. The one-armed guillotine choke he used to finish Rob Font in the first round of his most recent fight was slicker than grape jelly on a brass doorknob.
The problem is Dodson has excellent defensive wrestling and will be well aware of that guillotine threat. Munhoz’s four-fight win streak ends here.
Dodson, TKO, Rd. 2.
Lightweight
Michel Prazeres (23-2) vs. Desmond Green (20-6)
Odds: Prazeres -145, Green +125
Airs on: Fox Sports 1
Michel Prazeres is not what you would call an action fighter, but his control-wrestling game is impressive all the same. He’s on a five-fight win streak thanks to that approach. Although he does have some pop in his strikes, the choke remains his finishing move of choice.
Desmond Green had success in Bellator and held the featherweight title in Titan FC but has consistently struggled against top competition. He’s a well-rounded competitor with a solid 75 percent takedown defense rate, according to FightMetric. That’s a skill he will need against Prazeres. He should have an advantage on the feet, particularly if he can keep Prazeres on the perimeter.
Lightweight may well be the densest division in the UFC today. Evan Dunham is No. 15 on the official rankings. That tells you something about the division’s depth. Both these fighters are knocking on the door. Green will use his wider skill set to spring the mild upset.
Green, unanimous decision.
Odds according to OddsShark.
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