It feels like Rory MacDonald should be fighting for the welterweight title, but the 170-pound division is stacked with top-notch fighters. MacDonald also lost to Robbie Lawler, the man getting his second shot at Johny Hendricks’ title in December.
As of now, MacDonald sits near the top of the heap, but he’ll have to win at least one more fight against a top contender before he can get a shot at the belt.
On Saturday, Oct. 4, that aforementioned contender is Tarec Saffiedine. The Sponge is undefeated in the UFC, and dating back to his time in Strikeforce, he has won five fights in a row. This is a big-time and potentially competitive scrap. It headlines the UFC Fight Night 54 card live from Halifax, Canada.
Because MacDonald was born in Quesnel, British Columbia, he’ll certainly have a large cheering section. Can he stay on track to earn a title shot?
Here’s the viewing information, full card and predictions for the night of fights. Just below the table is a closer look at the top two fights on the card.
Raphael Assuncao Will Outpoint Bryan Caraway
This bout is a tough matchup for Caraway. He desperately needs to take the battle to the mat, as he won’t be a match for Assuncao‘s boxing. However, if he does manage to take the 32-year-old Brazilian down, there’s no guarantee that he dominates the action there.
Caraway does have 17 submission wins in his career, but Assuncao has 10. The latter is also quietly on a six-fight win streak that includes a split-decision win over current UFC bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw in Oct. 2013.
Assuncao’s takedown defense has been solid despite his own grappling prowess. He has been able to stuff 77 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. By staying on his feet against Caraway, he’ll stay in the most advantageous position. Assuncao will stay hot with a unanimous-decision win on the strength of accurate and effective striking.
Rory is Too Big and Too Skilled for Saffiedine
You can’t put too much into the results against common opponents, but it’s worth mentioning that Saffiedine lost a split decision to Tyron Woodley in Jan. 2011, and MacDonald dismantled him in June.
That only adds to the fact that physically and mentally, MacDonald seems like the superior fighter.
His two-inch height advantage is key because he is one of the few mixed martial artists who knows how to fight tall. He uses his range and length very well. It’s the reason why MacDonald is only hit with 2.30 strikes per minute in his fights. MacDonald also owns one of the most complete MMA games in the sport.
Saffiedine is fairly one-dimensional, and he hasn’t demonstrated much explosive power. He has just one win by KO.
He is an accurate striker (50 percent connect rate), but matched against a technician and masterful grappler like MacDonald, it’s only a matter of time before Ares picks Saffiedine apart.
Look for MacDonald to frustrate Saffiedine with striking and to finish the deal with a submission victory. Bring on the winner of Lawler-Hendricks II.
All stats per FightMetric.com.
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