McCall vs. Johnson
Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out if we’ve reached that point. This fight has every storyline needed to sell a main event. Demetrius Johnson and Ian McCall are two of the best fighters in the world at their weight. They fought in March on the UFC on FX 2 card and battled to one of the most bizarre results in UFC history. The fight was announced a split decision victory for Johnson but upon reexamination of the cards after the fight, someone was outed as not having the first grade math skills to add up the judges scorecards. The fight had actually been scored a draw. Had everyone’s math skills been in order at the end of the fight, that result would have resulted in a sudden victory fourth round. Instead, we get a rematch to determine who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the right to be the first ever 125 pound champion in UFC history. I’m sure the fourth round in March would have been exciting television but three more rounds between these two can’t be considered anything other than a win for the fans.
In so many ways, these fighters are startlingly similar. Both have wrestling backgrounds and are explosive athletes. Both have used that explosive athleticism to develop excellent striking skills. Both move fluidly through transitions in all positions and neither is easy to contain for any period of time. The first fight was so even that it was nearly impossible to score. Johnson had a slight edge in the striking exchanges in the first round but McCall countered with two takedowns. Johnson managed to land a right hand that briefly staggered McCall and on my scorecard, I used that as a tiebreaker to give the first round to Johnson. The second round was where the judging ran into problems. If a 10-10 round was ever fought, that was it. But under the 10 point must system, someone has to win the round. I gave it to Johnson based on literally nothing other than a completely subjective feeling. The third round was the most dominant round for either fighter with McCall taking Johnson’s back and nearly finishing him with ground a pound. And this is where the 10 point must system went from being a problem to basically being a farce. If we follow the system exactly, that was a 10-9 round for McCall and based on my card, Johnson should win the fight. But that’s ridiculous because McCall was infinitely more dominant in the third than Johnson was in the second. So I, being a judging rebel, made the third round a 10-8 round for McCall so that it would be a draw, which is exactly what one of the judges at the event did. And I applaud him for it. Unfortunately, the person adding up his card apparently needs a calculator to handle two digit addition and we now find ourselves in this position.
According to Vegas, Johnson is a -150 favorite at the moment with McCall at +130. I’d like to know how they arrived at those lines. As far as I can see, this is a classic pick ‘em fight. These fighters are absurdly well-rounded with their strengths being in the same areas. I expect to see a similar fight to the one we saw in March. Johnson will be slightly better in the striking exchanges with McCall barely coming out ahead in the grappling. The only way either fighter will be able to gain a clear advantage is if McCall can get Johnson to the ground and somehow keep him there, which seems unlikely. If I start looking deeper for advantages, Matt Hume is one of the best coaches an in MMA. He has an entire three rounds of fight tape to study and develop a gameplan for Johnson to utilize. Team Oyama where McCall trains is a great camp but nobody other than Greg Jackson has the mind for the sport that Matt Hume has. Johnson will absolutely have the perfect strategy going into the fight. Whether or not he can execute it will be determined at fight time. Anyone willing to say that either fighter is a clear favorite didn’t watch the first fight closely enough. The only sure thing is that on Friday night, we will get a winner to face Joseph Benavidez for the title. But don’t be surprised if the outcome leaves fans calling for a trilogy.
Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen
Both fighters will be looking to rebound from losses in their last UFC appearance in this battle to see who can earn their way back into title contention. Eddie Wineland has lost his last two fights to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez while former WEC bantamweight champion Scott Jorgensen lost in his most recent fight against phenom Renan Barao.
Despite back to back losses, Wineland cannot be dismissed. Both of those fights were against the highest level of competition. Faber will be fighting for the interim 135 pound title in his next fight and Benavidez awaits the winner of the main event to determine the 125 pound champion. Wineland was competitive in both fights and while he lost decisively, he was not dominated. He greatly improved his wrestling going into the Faber fight and continued that improvement into the Benavidez fight. However, he was unable to translate his defensive wrestling into offensive attacks. He seemed so focused on sprawling and defending against takedowns that he was not nearly as aggressive with his striking as he had been in previous fights. Wineland is one of the better strikers in the division and needs to let his hands go if he is going to find success against Jorgensen. After his last two performances, he should be confident enough in his defensive wrestling to let his striking game flow knowing that his instincts will allow him to sprawl if Jorgensen shoots. For Wineland to earn the victory, he needs to combine the defensive ability he showed in his recent fights with the offensive ability that he has displayed throughout his career. If he can do that, his opponent could be in for a long night.
Jorgensen is also coming off a loss to a top tier fighter. Renan Barao will be fighting Urijah Faber in the aforementioned interim bantamweight title match. Losing to Barao is nothing to be ashamed of but if Jorgensen expects to get back into title contention, he needs to defeat Wineland. As a former champion, Jorgensen has all the skills to get back to that level and a win on Saturday night would be the first step in that direction. Jorgensen has an excellent collegiate wrestling background and has been successful putting most opponents on their backs although he did struggle with Barao. But the real improvement in his game in recent years has been in his striking and look for him to show off those skills against Wineland. Expect him to be willing to stand with Wineland for as long as he feels comfortable. If he begins to feel threatened or if Wineland starts to seize an advantage, that’s when we could see the takedowns come into play. Jorgensen should have an advantage in that area and if he can’t control the fight on the feet, he should be able to control it on the mat.
Jorgensen is the clear favorite going into this fight at -210 with Wineland at +175. That line seems about right as a victory for Wineland would definitely be an upset. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Wineland will need to keep the fight standing and outstrike Jorgensen, which he is capable of doing. But if he shows the same tentative approach on the feet that he’s showed in recent fights, Jorgensen will pick him apart. And even if he brings his best striking into the cage, Jorgensen should be able to mix in some wrestling to work his way to victory.
