Tag: UFC bantamweight tournament

UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part I

McCall vs. Johnson Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out.

McCall vs. Johnson

Five years ago, I wasn’t sure whether the UFC audience would ever evolve to the level where a fight between 125 pounders could headline a card. On Friday night, we’ll find out if we’ve reached that point. This fight has every storyline needed to sell a main event. Demetrius Johnson and Ian McCall are two of the best fighters in the world at their weight. They fought in March on the UFC on FX 2 card and battled to one of the most bizarre results in UFC history. The fight was announced a split decision victory for Johnson but upon reexamination of the cards after the fight, someone was outed as not having the first grade math skills to add up the judges scorecards. The fight had actually been scored a draw. Had everyone’s math skills been in order at the end of the fight, that result would have resulted in a sudden victory fourth round. Instead, we get a rematch to determine who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the right to be the first ever 125 pound champion in UFC history. I’m sure the fourth round in March would have been exciting television but three more rounds between these two can’t be considered anything other than a win for the fans.

In so many ways, these fighters are startlingly similar. Both have wrestling backgrounds and are explosive athletes. Both have used that explosive athleticism to develop excellent striking skills. Both move fluidly through transitions in all positions and neither is easy to contain for any period of time. The first fight was so even that it was nearly impossible to score. Johnson had a slight edge in the striking exchanges in the first round but McCall countered with two takedowns. Johnson managed to land a right hand that briefly staggered McCall and on my scorecard, I used that as a tiebreaker to give the first round to Johnson. The second round was where the judging ran into problems. If a 10-10 round was ever fought, that was it. But under the 10 point must system, someone has to win the round. I gave it to Johnson based on literally nothing other than a completely subjective feeling. The third round was the most dominant round for either fighter with McCall taking Johnson’s back and nearly finishing him with ground a pound. And this is where the 10 point must system went from being a problem to basically being a farce. If we follow the system exactly, that was a 10-9 round for McCall and based on my card, Johnson should win the fight. But that’s ridiculous because McCall was infinitely more dominant in the third than Johnson was in the second. So I, being a judging rebel, made the third round a 10-8 round for McCall so that it would be a draw, which is exactly what one of the judges at the event did. And I applaud him for it. Unfortunately, the person adding up his card apparently needs a calculator to handle two digit addition and we now find ourselves in this position.

According to Vegas, Johnson is a -150 favorite at the moment with McCall at +130. I’d like to know how they arrived at those lines. As far as I can see, this is a classic pick ‘em fight. These fighters are absurdly well-rounded with their strengths being in the same areas. I expect to see a similar fight to the one we saw in March. Johnson will be slightly better in the striking exchanges with McCall barely coming out ahead in the grappling. The only way either fighter will be able to gain a clear advantage is if McCall can get Johnson to the ground and somehow keep him there, which seems unlikely. If I start looking deeper for advantages, Matt Hume is one of the best coaches an in MMA. He has an entire three rounds of fight tape to study and develop a gameplan for Johnson to utilize. Team Oyama where McCall trains is a great camp but nobody other than Greg Jackson has the mind for the sport that Matt Hume has. Johnson will absolutely have the perfect strategy going into the fight. Whether or not he can execute it will be determined at fight time. Anyone willing to say that either fighter is a clear favorite didn’t watch the first fight closely enough. The only sure thing is that on Friday night, we will get a winner to face Joseph Benavidez for the title. But don’t be surprised if the outcome leaves fans calling for a trilogy.

Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen

Both fighters will be looking to rebound from losses in their last UFC appearance in this battle to see who can earn their way back into title contention. Eddie Wineland has lost his last two fights to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez while former WEC bantamweight champion Scott Jorgensen lost in his most recent fight against phenom Renan Barao.

Despite back to back losses, Wineland cannot be dismissed. Both of those fights were against the highest level of competition. Faber will be fighting for the interim 135 pound title in his next fight and Benavidez awaits the winner of the main event to determine the 125 pound champion. Wineland was competitive in both fights and while he lost decisively, he was not dominated. He greatly improved his wrestling going into the Faber fight and continued that improvement into the Benavidez fight. However, he was unable to translate his defensive wrestling into offensive attacks. He seemed so focused on sprawling and defending against takedowns that he was not nearly as aggressive with his striking as he had been in previous fights. Wineland is one of the better strikers in the division and needs to let his hands go if he is going to find success against Jorgensen. After his last two performances, he should be confident enough in his defensive wrestling to let his striking game flow knowing that his instincts will allow him to sprawl if Jorgensen shoots. For Wineland to earn the victory, he needs to combine the defensive ability he showed in his recent fights with the offensive ability that he has displayed throughout his career. If he can do that, his opponent could be in for a long night.

Jorgensen is also coming off a loss to a top tier fighter. Renan Barao will be fighting Urijah Faber in the aforementioned interim bantamweight title match. Losing to Barao is nothing to be ashamed of but if Jorgensen expects to get back into title contention, he needs to defeat Wineland. As a former champion, Jorgensen has all the skills to get back to that level and a win on Saturday night would be the first step in that direction. Jorgensen has an excellent collegiate wrestling background and has been successful putting most opponents on their backs although he did struggle with Barao. But the real improvement in his game in recent years has been in his striking and look for him to show off those skills against Wineland. Expect him to be willing to stand with Wineland for as long as he feels comfortable. If he begins to feel threatened or if Wineland starts to seize an advantage, that’s when we could see the takedowns come into play. Jorgensen should have an advantage in that area and if he can’t control the fight on the feet, he should be able to control it on the mat.

Jorgensen is the clear favorite going into this fight at -210 with Wineland at +175. That line seems about right as a victory for Wineland would definitely be an upset. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Wineland will need to keep the fight standing and outstrike Jorgensen, which he is capable of doing. But if he shows the same tentative approach on the feet that he’s showed in recent fights, Jorgensen will pick him apart. And even if he brings his best striking into the cage, Jorgensen should be able to mix in some wrestling to work his way to victory.

UFC on FX 3 Pre-Fight Analysis: Part II

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman.

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

If the main event features two fighters who are startlingly similar, this fight is the exact opposite. Charlie Brenneman and Erick Silva couldn’t be more different in their approaches. Brenneman is a calculated strategist whose five UFC victories have all come via decision including his latest victory over Daniel Roberts. On the other end of the spectrum, Erick Silva fights with an unbridled aggression that has twice caused him to lose fights due to illegal strikes. This will be a classic test of which fighter can impose his style of fighting on his opponent.

Charlie Brenneman is 5-2 in his UFC career with one of the losses coming to the absurd weight-cutting of Anthony Johnson. He has really only lost once in the UFC to someone who belongs in his weight class and that was to Johnny Hendricks who has currently worked his way into title contention. Brenneman isn’t at that level but a few more wins and the UFC will have to take notice. His style doesn’t make him a fan favorite and that has hindered his marketability. His last fight is a perfect example of that. He thoroughly outclassed Roberts and controlled every aspect of the fight. The outcome was never in doubt as Brenneman dominated position for all fifteen minutes. But in those fifteen minutes, he did little damage despite getting into dominant positions including the mounted crucifix twice. But that style will be his greatest asset against Silva. Brenneman will want to avoid trading on the feet and suck his opponent into a grinding grappling contest. If he allows himself to be drawn into a brawl he could find himself in trouble or even unconscious. But if he can use his striking to set up takedowns and control Silva, he should be able to earn the victory.

Erick Silva is explosive. He has finished his last four opponents in the first round. That includes back to back first minute TKOs in the UFC. The last fight was ruled a DQ due to strikes to the back of the head but even referee Mario Yamasaki admitted that he made the wrong call in that fight. Silva’s gameplan isn’t complicated. He will look to explode on Brenneman the same way he has exploded on all his opponents. An early finish is entirely possible and will probably be his most likely route to victory as Brenneman is a master of grinding opponents into the mat over the full fifteen minutes. That said, Silva will need to wait for the right opportunity to attack. If he attacks recklessly and gets off balance, Brenneman will take advantage and put him on his back. Silva has shown a good submission game in Brazil but he hasn’t had to contend with a fighter who has a base and defense like the one he’ll be facing on Friday. Controlling his explosive aggression and timing his attack properly will be the key for Silva.

Silva is the favorite at -145 with Brenneman at +125. This is a relatively close line for an MMA fight and both fighters have a legitimate path to victory. Silva will look to end the fight early by overwhelming Brenneman with power and explosiveness. Brenneman will look to survive that early onslaught, drag the fight out as long as possible and pull out the victory in the final rounds. History says that the more experienced fighter with better positioning and control is likely to win the fight. But if Silva destroys Brenneman the way he has destroyed his first two opponents, he will be officially announcing his arrival as a factor in the welterweight division.

Josh Neer vs. Mike Pyle

What a great way to start the main card. Neither of these fighters will ever compete for a UFC title but they have both been fixtures in MMA for years with Pyle debuting in 1999 and Neer coming along four years later in 2003. Both have improved immensely in their time in the sport and have consistently provided fans with high level entertaining fights. They are both well-rounded with the ability to finish from any position. Old school fans will be looking forward to this fight as much or more than any other fight on the card aside from the main event.

Mike Pyle is 5-3 in his most recent UFC stint including a TKO victory over Richard Funch in his last appearance. He landed a big right hand followed by a knee that dropped Funch. He then pounced and landed a few more strikes to stop the fight. That kind of finish is unlikely against the absurdly durable Neer. Pyle will more than likely need to beat Neer for fifteen minutes if he wants to earn the victory. He has the stand up game to compete with Neer on the feet and fifteen minutes of striking would be a treat for the fans. But the more likely route to victory would be to put Neer on his back and use grappling to control the fight. Even from there, Neer will still be dangerous and Pyle will need to be wary of submissions. And getting Neer to the mat won’t be easy either. If Pyle can’t get the takedown, look for him to step back and try to win the fight with his kickboxing.

Josh Neer is one of those fighters who seems to be incapable of being in a boring fight. He tries to finish from every position and has the skill set to do so. He was released from the UFC after back to back losses in 2009 but earned his way back in with four consecutive wins in 2011 and has now won back to back UFC fights including an impressive first round submission of Duane Ludwig in January. Ludwig was winning the fight on the feet as would be expected but Neer was able to land a takedown and caught Ludwig in a guillotine as he attempted to get back to a standing position. Expect him to try to keep the fight standing against Kyle as he should have the advantage. But he won’t be afraid to grapple with Pyle and this fight could end up showcasing all aspects of MMA. Neer needs to be careful of spending too much time on his back looking for submissions as the judges will not look favorably on that if the fight goes to a decision. He has the ability to win wherever the fight goes but his most likely road to victory takes place in the striking game.

Pyle comes into this fight as the favorite at -190 with Neer the underdog at +165. Once again, I’m surprised at the gap in these lines as Neer has a legitimate chance to win this fight. Pyle should be able to use his wrestling to get Neer on the ground but whether or not he can keep him there could determine who wins the fight. Neer will look to land damaging shots on the feet and catch a submission if the fight ends up on the mat. If Kyle can avoid those attempts and control the pace of the fight, he can earn the victory. If not, Neer could walk away with another upset.