The main event of UFC on FX will feature two fighters looking for redemption, as Melvin Guillard will be looking to bounce back from a loss to Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller will be looking to bounce back from a surprising loss to Benson Henderson.
Of course, the idea for both fighters won’t be so much to win as it will be to not lose. It’s easy enough to fade towards irrelevancy in the lightweight division with one loss. Two in a row is an obstacle neither of these fighters wants to deal with.
Stylistically, the Guillard vs. Miller matchup is your typical clash of opposites. Guillard is your lethal striker in this case, and Miller is your deadly grappler and submission artist.
Concerning matchups like these, I tend to favor strikers. To give a few recent examples, it was easy to pick Alistair Overeem to beat Brock Lesnar, and it was certainly easy to pick Jose Aldo to beat Chad Mendes. Different weight divisions, to be sure, but the idea is the same.
But I’m going against my instincts with this fight. As dangerous as Guillard is, Miller is a tough nut to crack. Guillard is not going to crack him.
Guillard will try his damnedest, though; make no mistake about that. It’s his custom to go for the quick, crushing finish, and it’s something he’s done well in his recent fights. Three of his last four victories have been of the knockout variety. I’m assuming he’d like nothing more than to make it four out of five.
However, you have to think Guillard is going to be a little more cautious against Miller. His last fight ended with him in a rear-naked choke, and Miller could very well put Guillard in one of those if he presents Miller with the opportunity. Guillard will try to hit him where it hurts, but he’s going to have to choose his spots.
It will be up to Miller not to give Guillard any spots at all, and that’s something Miller can most certainly do. He’s good at avoiding strikes, and his next knockout defeat will be his first.
It’s just plain difficult to get any kind of drop on Miller, and he will stand his ground for several rounds if he has to.
The question will be how long Guillard can go before he decides to get aggressive. When (it’s not a matter of if) he does, he’ll be setting himself up to land in Miller’s grasp. A few twists and turns later, Miller will have Guillard in a rather uncomfortable position.
That’s when the tapout will come.
When the deed is done, Guillard will be looking at a long road back to the top.
Prediction: Miller by rear-naked choke in second.
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