Filed under: UFC
UFC on Versus 6 goes down in Washington D.C. on Saturday night, and while the people there may not look too kindly on you betting on presidential races (don’t look now, but Ron Paul’s going off at +4500), you can still scour this fight card in search of a good deal.
So who do oddsmakers like on Saturday night, and who might they be overvaluing? I’m so glad you asked…
Dominick Cruz (-525) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+325)
If there’s anybody in the 135-pound division who can out-quick Cruz, it just might be Johnson. Then again, that’s still a big if. Johnson’s problem is that his quickness is mostly limited to the takedown department. Granted, he can shoot in for a double-leg and have your back on the mat before you can say ‘sprawl,’ much less do it, but it’s fairly predictable. Cruz, on the other hand, is anything but. With the way he dips his head and lets his feet drift perilously close together in that peculiar little striking cha-cha of his, he’d be relatively easy to drop if only you had any way of knowing when he was going to do what. From the looks of it, he barely knows. Cruz dominates not simply because he’s fast, but because he disguises his attacks so well. Is he throwing the lead right or is he just distracting you with it en route to the takedown? You never know until it’s too late.
My pick: Cruz. Compared to him, Johnson is a one-trick pony. If that trick were knockout power or even slick submissions, it might be worth the risk. But no way he holds the champ down for five rounds.
Pat Barry (-185) vs. Stefan Struve (+155)
As much as I love Barry and hope he sticks around for a long time to entertain us in and out of the cage, I’m surprised to see him favored in this fight. Barry’s a great kickboxer, but he’s giving up so much size and reach to the 6’11” Struve. The smart play would be for Barry to attack his legs, if only because he can’t reach the Dutchman’s head without a trampoline. If Struve does even a mediocre job of using his length, he should be able to give Barry problems. If the fight moves in close, Struve could take it to the mat, where he has the better submissions game. The only thing he can’t do is spend a lot of time in the clinch or miss with big shots that let Barry get in and counter. And okay, he also probably shouldn’t let Barry do to his legs what he did to poor, poor Dan Evensen’s, but that goes without saying, right?
My pick: Struve. In a stand-up comedy or personality contest, Barry wins easily. But here, with the underdog line plus all the checkmarks in Struve’s favor, he’s the smarter pick.
Anthony Johnson (-185) vs. Charlie Brenneman (+155)
Remember when Brenneman was, according to the Pennsylvania Athletic Commission’s Greg Sirb, a real-life “Rocky story” for stepping up in Nate Marquardt’s place and beating Rick Story? Well, a) someone should remind Sirb that it’s his job to regulate fights, not sell them like he’s Don freaking King, and b) as a thank you from the UFC, now Brenneman gets has to fight Johnson, which just reminds us all what a tough way to make a living this sport can be. Johnson has proved himself to be a pretty solid wrestler when he needs to be, but here he’ll likely use that to keep the fight standing and exploit Brenneman’s inexperience in the striking game. And that can be done, let’s not forget. Johny Hendricks had him on ice skates after landing a few good shots, and he’s nowhere near the striker Johnson is. As long as “Rumble” can make weight without killing himself, he has the tools to keep this fight where he wants it and take advantage of some holes in Brenneman’s game. But then, that scale has proved to be a nemesis in the past…
My pick: Johnson. He’s faced tougher competition in his UFC run than Brenneman, and a diverse set of skills has helped him tremendously. Brenneman does one thing very well, but that will only get you so far.
Mac Danzig (+165) vs. Matt Wiman (-205)
Ah, yes. The fight that ended early, then was supposed to happen again, then got put off by injuries and other match-ups until we all forgot what was weird about the first meeting. Quick version: Wiman had Danzig in a not-quite-tight-enough guillotine choke, but the ref freaked out and stopped it anyway, thinking Danzig was in trouble. Now they meet again to settle that old score, only this time it’s Wiman who’s more recently feeling the sting of injustice, having just lost a close decision to Dennis Siver in July. The first meeting between these two was so brief, it was tough to tell who had the edge. But that Siver fight gave Wiman a chance to really show what he could do, and he was impressive in it. The fight was still a close one and could have gone either way, but Wiman showed how far he’s come in recent years by hanging with someone of Siver’s caliber and nearly putting him away. Danzig? He knocked out Joe Stevenson last December, but that doesn’t exactly mean what it used to.
My pick: Wiman. He’s come a long way in the last couple years. Danzig is still mostly the same guy who won TUF.
Quick Picks:
– Yves Edwards (-165) over Rafaello Oliveira (+135). Oliveira isn’t fighting guys like “Wigman Big Big” anymore, and he’s lost to nearly every name fighter he’s faced.
– Paul Sass (+150) over Michael Johnson (-180). With the exception of his decision loss to Jonathan Brookins in the TUF finale, all of Johnson’s other losses have come via submission. And I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Sass has some nasty ones.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Cruz + A. Johnson + Wiman + Edwards.