Fabricio “Vai Cavalo” Werdum is not only the king of the upset. He’s now the king of the UFC’s heavyweight division.
The 37-year-old first shocked the MMA world with a first-round submission win over Fedor Emelianenko. Five years later, he struck again with a stunning third-round guillotine choke on Cain Velasquez at UFC 188.
Unlike his win over The Last Emperor, this wasn’t just a case of Werdum catching the favorite in his notorious guard. Vai Cavalo did damage to the former champion in every aspect of the game before ultimately locking up a choke on Saturday.
Jason Floyd of The MMA Report tweeted out the final statistics for the bout:
This is obviously a huge shakeup for the UFC’s biggest weight class. The land of the giants hasn’t had a new champion since 2010, when Velasquez took the belt by demolishing Brock Lesnar.
Here’s a look at the top storylines to watch in the division after this thrilling title fight.
Will Velasquez Bounce Back?
It’s always interesting to watch dominant fighters come back from a loss. Sometimes, it’s the fuel they need to come back better than ever. Sometimes, it’s a sure sign that the dominance has come to a sudden end.
In Velasquez’s case, there’s evidence for either result.
This isn’t the first time Velasquez has lost. His devastating knockout loss to Junior Dos Santos is well-known and gave way to the most dominant Velasquez we’ve seen. He worked his way back to a title shot with a decisive win over Antonio Silva, regained his title, then beat both Silva and JDS again for good measure.
Dana White believes that’s the Velasquez we’ll see in the Octagon again soon, per UFC on Fox:
However, there’s a pessimistic outlook here, too. The fact is that Velasquez has always dealt with injuries, and inactivity has been a theme throughout his career. This was only his 15th fight in nine years.
As Jonathan Snowden of Bleacher Report noted, there was a lot of adversity leading up to the now-32-year-old’s return to the cage:
Given the general lack of competition in the heavyweight division, it’s a safe bet that Velasquez will overcome those issues to be a factor. However, it’s not an exaggeration to say that he’s no longer going to be the odds-on favorite every time he walks into the cage.
How Long Will Werdum Hold on to the Belt?
With Werdum’s legacy as one of the best underdogs of all time secured now, the question is how well he handles being the favorite.
Looking at his history, that could be a challenge. Everyone is quick to remember his upset victory over Emelianenko. Sometimes, it’s lost in the gravitas of that upset that Werdum followed that win up with a lackluster decision loss to Alistair Overeem.
That’s not exactly a fair comparison, though. Clearly, Werdum’s game has evolved since 2011. In that loss, Werdum spent much of his time lying on his back, trying to get Overeem to engage him on the ground.
The new and improved champion would set up his ground game with his much-improved kickboxing and clinch striking.
There are plenty of challengers for Werdum to prove himself against in the immediate future. Andrei Arlovski, Stipe Miocic and Junior Dos Santos were all in the top five of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings on fight night and coming off wins.
Werdum has already fought Arlovski and Dos Santos. But again, this isn’t exactly the same version of those fighters.
For the first time in a long time, it feels like the heavyweight division is intriguing from a matchmaking perspective.
“Obviously, it makes the heavyweight division very interesting,” White said, via Brett Okamoto of ESPN. “There a lot of different options. You know, I never talk about it tonight. We’ll go back, sit down and talk about it. The heavyweight division is very exciting right now.”
Was Junior Dos Santos Really the Biggest Winner at UFC 188?
Junior Dos Santos might not have fought at UFC 188, but there’s no denying he was a big winner. The Brazilian slugger came into the fight ranked No. 2 in the division but knew he was going to have a difficult time getting a fourth fight with Velasquez after losing the last two in the trilogy.
Dos Santos offered his thoughts on the ramifications of a possible win for Werdum heading into the title bout, per Brent Brookhouse and John Morgan of MMAJunkie:
He’s a great fighter. He’s coming from great victories. If he gets that, it’s going to be good for me. Because now I’m suffering with the politics. Because ‘it’s not time to have the fourth fight between you and Velasquez.’ Why not? I’m trying to do my best and I will always try to do that. But, for sure, if Werdum wins I will be the next for the title.
Whether JDS‘ timing is correct remains to be seen. According to Brookhouse and Morgan, the former champion can’t start training until July while he recovers from injuries sustained in his epic fight with Miocic in December.
The worst-case scenario for Dos Santos is he’s passed up for the title shot right now.
In that case, it would likely go to Arlovski or Miocic. With a win over Miocic and Werdum on his resume already, the odds that he is once again able to capture the heavyweight title skyrocketed when Velasquez tapped to Werdum’s choke.
Much like the rest of the heavyweight division, Dos Santos found new life.
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