Undefeated Gunnar Nelson looks to make the leap into the Top 10 of the welterweight division when he meets Rick “The Horror” Story in the main event of UFC Fight Night 53 this Saturday.
Nelson (13-0-1), who is currently ranked 12th in the division, takes on former top contender Story (17-8) in a five-round fight. Story, who is 4-3 in his last seven fights, is a former collegiate wrestler who has beaten the likes of current welterweight champion Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves. Of his three recent losses, two have been controversial split decisions.
While Story looks to reclaim his relevance once again, he will be tested by the submission specialist Nelson. A win over Story could mean a top quality opponent for the Icelandic fighter in his next outing.
Nelson is relatively inexperienced compared to the 30-year-old Story. However, don’t count that as a weakness. Story would be seriously troubled to doubt Nelson’s skill set. A 2009 multi-gold medalist in the IBJJF Pan American Championship, Nelson has won three of his four UFC fights by submission, including two in the first round. There’s more to offer, however, than Nelson’s record indicates.
“He was a karate competitor as a youth. He switches stances frequently and his straight punches from either stance are lightning-fast and powerful,” wrote Sherdog.com’s Patrick Wyman in his preview of the matchup.
Without any formal wrestling training, Nelson is still able to take fights to the ground and has avoided 100 percent of the takedowns coming his way. That number is something Story should be very afraid of. Nelson has taken each UFC opponent down at least once, making multiple passes in their guard while he is there.
On the feet, he possesses excellent striking accuracy, landing 60 percent of his strikes, although nearly half of those strikes have come on the ground.
His opponent, Story, is well-rounded and isn’t performing as badly as his record indicates. He has traded leather with some of the UFC’s heaviest hitters in the past. Story first made waves in the UFC when he defeated Hendricks and Alves while riding a six-fight win streak, but he was beaten at his own game by Charlie Brenneman and outclassed by Martin Kampmann.
Nelson and Story have familiar approaches to their fights, but there is one distinct difference. Story, the wrestler, prefers to control his opponent—which critics have called ugly—as opposed to looking for the finish. His game plan has evolved, though. In two of his last three victories, Story has one knockout and one submission victory. If his game does have a weakness, it’s against high-level jiu-jitsu artists.
“I can use any of my skills. I can use my distance to catch him and pinpoint him, or I could pressure him and get him down to the floor and finish him that way,” Nelson told the UFC’s Caroline Pierce.
The last time Story faced an accomplished grappler, it was Demian Maia, who submitted him in the first round at UFC 153. With two fighters so well-versed on the ground, they would appear to cancel each other out. Who gets the advantage on the feet, then, will be determined by who lands first. It’s a classic matchup of the volume puncher versus the technical striker.
Nelson picks his spots and switches stances, thus keeping opposing fighters guessing. Story uses his combinations in order to set up a takedown or when engaging in the clinch. However, neither fighter has ever shown an interest in brawling or possesses one-punch knockout power. Story would appear to have an advantage standing up simply due to his experience.
For Story, a win over an undefeated and dangerous prospect could be the boost of confidence he needs to show other welterweights he’s still a formidable threat. For Nelson, it could mean embarking on the path to a title shot. A loss against the veteran would be a serious setback, and it’s obvious the UFC has high hopes for Icelander.
Regardless of how he wins, Nelson will draw a Top 10 opponent. With a potential fight against Maia out of reach due to his bone infection, he could draw the winner of Jake Ellenberger vs. Kelvin Gastelum.
If Nelson is the real deal, he will steamroll through Story; if not, then it would show that he needs more weapons outside of his ground game to accompany him in his next fight.
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