UFC Betting Sites – The Best MMA Online Bookies

It’s almost time for UFC 301. Checkout the latest odds — and line movements — with less than 24 hours until showtime.

UFC 301 goes down later this evening (Sat., May 4, 2024) from inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The event is a “Brazil vs. The World”-type affair from the pay-per-view (PPV) main event all the way down to the curtain jerker. It’s “Brazil vs. Australia” in the main event (which would be a kit clash in most other sports), with Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, staking his title against relatively unknown, Steve Erceg.

The co-main event has Brazilian mixed martial arts (MMA) royalty on show with Jose Aldo returning from a faux-retirement to take on Jonathan Martinez in the Bantamweight division. Rounding out UFC 301’s PPV main card is former title challenger, Anthony Smith, taking on the undefeated Vitor Petrino, action fighter Michel Pereira meeting Ihor Potieria and action grappler Paul Craig meeting inaction expert, Caio Borralho.

UFC 301’s “Prelims” later tonight have some interesting additions, too; with Drakkar Klose meeting Joaquim Silva and Ismael Bonfim facing off with Vinc Pichel.

I’ve been watching the odds for these bouts all week looking for interesting dogs, props and parlays. In this post, I’m going to focus on line movement between now and earlier this week (Monday) to see where the money is coming in. This way you can decide if you want to follow said money or fade it.

UFC 301 PPV Main Card Line Movement

Photo by Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The Pantoja vs. Erceg line has remained the same since Monday. This could indicate that there is plenty of action on both Pantoja and Erceg, with the champion a slight favorite and the challenger a slight underdog. The odds here are reflective of Erceg being a fresh, young and interesting challenger who is relatively untested in UFC’s 125-pound division, but also someone who probably hasn’t shown us what he is capable of yet. Plenty of folks look willing to ride with him on Saturday to see if they can make a small profit off the belief that he’s trending upward. The line on Pantoja — and how it has remained still — tells us folks are still willing to buy Pantoja as a solid Flyweight veteran who is battle-tested and proven he can win tough fights over long rounds. The only doubt on him is whether he’s had too many tough fights on top of all the years he’s been in the game.

I can make an argument for either man in this one, but if I had to pick, I’d side with Pantoja just because we’ve seen more of him.

Photo by Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jonathan Martinez (-142) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)

There has been a little bit of movement on the lines for UFC 301’s co-main event. Aldo has seen his underdog status decrease slightly from +136 on Monday to +120 now. I think this shows the public still have fond memories of Aldo and they want to back him to win on his return to UFC. Because of this, Martinez’s line has also shifted a little. He was a -162 favorite at the start of the week, but now you can get him at -142 — which should be appealing to those who think Aldo is too close to 40 and too rusty to make a winning comeback to the Octagon.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Anthony Smith (+425) vs. Vitor Petrino (-575)

The public think Smith is in a lot of trouble on Saturday night. The oddsmakers had him as a +390 dog on Monday, but with money coming in against him, his odds have now grown to +425. Smith — a former title challenger — has been stopped in two of his last five fights. Petrino is undefeated (11-0) and, before beating Tyson Pedro, knocked out Modestas Bukauskas cold with a clean check hook (see it here). We’ll get into props later, but Petrino is currently just +100 to win this fight via (technical) knockout.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+470)

Pereira’s odds have been slashed from -535 to -650 as public money has rushed in on what feels like the biggest mismatch of the card. Pereira has looked awesome as of late. Potieria, on the other hand, has looked awful and seems destined to be on the wrong side of a highlight-reel knockout. Pereira is negative odds to win via TKO/KO (-150). With a single bet on Pereira netting back very little in return, he is likely featuring on countless parlays along with the rest of UFC 301’s heavy favorites.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paul Craig (+470) vs. Caio Borralho (-650)

Speaking of heavy favorites … Borralho’s odds have shifted from -550 to -650 over the week, probably because he’s been put into so many parlays along with Pereira. The confidence in Borralho is almost certainly due to belief that his smothering, no-fun grappling game will be too powerful for the very fun high-risk, high-reward grappling game of Craig.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jack Shore (+150) vs. Joanderson Brito (-180)

There’s been some interesting movement for the “Prelims,” including with this fight. This one started out as +124 for Shore versus -148 for Brito. However, it seems the public are buying into Brito. That’s good news if you think this is a close match-up and Shore can cause the upset on enemy territory.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-395)

Kowalkiewicz’s line of +330 looked a little silly to me on Monday and it seems at least a few people agree. Bets on the former UFC Strawweight title challenger have shortened her odds to +310. I still think that’s high given she is on a four-fight win streak and has done more in the cage, both lately and in the past, than Lucindo has. Lucindo was a -425 favorite to start the week. If you think this is a squash match, watch that line closely since it may come in even more as more folks get tempted to bet on Kowalkiewicz.

Elves Brener (+210) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-258)

There’s not much change in this line. Brener was +230 on Monday, while Orolbai was -285.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Fight is canceled after William Gomis looked terrible on the scales (see that here).

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Joaquim Silva (+154) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)

Klose’s odds to beat Silva have really shortened. On Monday he was -162. A few days prior to that he was -142. Silva’s odds have grown slightly from +140 since Monday. Klose looked good in beating Joe Solecki with a slam in the first round in back in Dec. 2023 (watch highlights). That extended his win streak to three fights. That streak started after he was sidelined for two years thanks to an ACL injury.

BestFightOdds.com

Mauricio Ruffy (-218) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)

Mullarkey’s odds have been the most volatile of anyone on this card. He has continued to grow as an underdog, with seemingly a lot of money heading toward Ruffy (who is making his UFC proper debut, as a 30-year-old, off the back of a Contender Series win). You could have gotten Ruffy at -175 earlier this week. Mullarkey started the week as a +145 dog. Remarkably, Mullarkey was a favorite when this fight was announced. I think Mullarkey has value as an underdog here, since I’m not sold on Ruffy — the Brazilian looks quite chaotic and hittable to me.

BestFightOdds.com

Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

A lot of money looks to have come in on Barbosa over the week, with her odds shrinking from -205 to -238. That has seen Kareckaite go from a +170 dog to +195 (and I think that will go even higher). Barbosa feels like the much better MMA fighter in this match-up and she is very dangerous on the ground. Kareckaite feels like a kickboxer who will be overwhelmed once Barbosa takes her down.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

There’s been no change in the odds for Bonfim vs. Pichel this week. Seems there are lots of folks in both camps, betting on Bonfim as a large favorite (perhaps packaged in a parlay with all the other ones) and betting on Pichel as an intriguing underdog. I personally wouldn’t touch Pichel, who is over 40 now and has not been active enough in UFC to justify his place on a PPV.

Alessandro Costa (-130) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

There’s been very little change on these betting lines. Costa was -125 to start the week. Borjas was +105.

Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays

I’ve looked over the props and possible parlays for this card and below are some interesting bets. Remember, though, never bet anything you can’t afford to lose.

Five-pick parlay: Ismael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira and Victor Petrino (+163)

If you package together all the big favorites on this card you still only get +163 odds. It feels like a lot needs to break your way to pick five fights correctly, but if you want to root for these favorites and try and profit of them, this might be safer than going for prop bets. I think all of these fighters will win, the only question marks for me are if Smith has too much veteran craft for Petrino or if Bonfim tries to cruise against Pichel and gets surprised.

Three-pick parlay: Dione Barbosa to win by submission, Elves Brener vs. Myktykbek Orolbai under 2.5 rounds, Michel Pereira to win (+740)

This is me packaging together the three things I have liked the most this week. I think Barbosa is being undervalued as a favorite and she will have ample opportunities to submit Kareckaite. I believe both Brener and Orolbai are capable of finishing each other and that it will happen on the early side of the fight, perhaps in their first couple of ground exchanges. And it just seems obvious that Pereira will win on Saturday any darn way he wants.

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho to go the distance (+150)

Borralho is not going to go for the finish here. Craig can only win this on the ground, so I think Borralho will be content to just prevent giving him any opportunities to that and will lay on him for 15 minutes. He’ll tap away with punches to prevent a stand up, but won’t risk posturing up and leaving himself open for a triangle. After the final bell rings, Borralho will don his specs and give us a big smile while the judges’ 30-27 scores are read, knowing he avoided a pitfall and put in an easy night’s work to move up a wrung on the ladder at Middleweight.

Michel Pereira to beat Ihor Potieria via submission (+350)

There’s a good chance Pereira comes out firing and finishes Potieria with a Tekken-style combination to win this bout in less than one minute (you can get +500 on this bout ending within a minute, by the way). However, let’s not think of Pereira as just a striking threat. The man has seven wins by submission, including his victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk last time out (which happened at 1:01 in the first round). Pereira won his third UFC fight by submission, too (over Zelim Imadaev in 2020). If Pereira wants to grapple, he’ll certainly be able to against Potieria. Pereira’s takedown accuracy is mediocre at 55 percent, but Potieria’s takedown defense is woeful at 57 percent.

UFC 301 Poll Time

Which of these props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Any parlays or props pique your interest? Hit us up in the comments below.

---

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

Bringing you the weird and wild from the world of MMA each and every weeknight!

Welcome to Midnight Mania!

Canelo Alvarez is less than 24 hours away from another high-profile boxing match. This time, the knockout artist is set for a high-profile showdown opposite Jaime Munguia this Saturday night (May 4, 2024) LIVE on DAZN boxing pay-per-view (PPV) from inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

It’s a huge fight for Alvarez, who may be slowing down a bit at this stage in his career. Meanwhile, Munguia is exciting and undefeated (43-0), so the potential for fireworks is obvious. Of course, he’s never faced anyone quite like Canelo!

It’s not, however, Alvarez’s only clash this week. At the pre-fight press conference on Wednesday, Alvarez tore into Golden Boy Promotions CEO Oscar De La Hoya, labeling him a scammer, thief, and asshole. De La Hoya didn’t take kindly to those words and responded with his own barbs, but he’s also threatened legal action.

Based on the social media post above, De La Hoya is at least partially living up to his threat. He hasn’t yet sued Canelo, but he has issued a cease and desist letter. It reads as follows:

“At yesterday’s press conference your client, Canelo Alvarez, falsely accused my client, Oscar De La Hoya, of stealing from boxers. He said this outrageous lie not once, but several times — both in English and Spanish — and it has now been republished to millions around the world.

You surely understand the legal implications of such blatantly false allegations … He falsely accused Oscar of a crime with specific intention of supposedly warning other boxers not to do business with Oscar or Golden Boy. Clearly, Canelo intentionally defamed Oscar and Golden Boy.

Canelo’s statements were also made with actual malice. Obviously, Canelo harbors great animosity and ill-will towards Oscar (repeatedly referring to him as a “f—king asshole” and even stooping to using a derogatory slur regarding gay people to try and insult Oscar). But Canelo also knows full well that neither Oscar nor Golden Boy ever stole anything from him or anyone else. In fact, Golden Boy has paid Canelo every penny he was entitled to receive from his fights with Golden Boy … Canelo knows that it was Oscar and Golden Boy who established Canelo’s current market value with the groundbreaking deals they negotiated for him. Although Canelo may be disappointed that his career has plateaued since he left Godlen Boy, that disappointment does not justify making such outrageous defamatory statements.

Accordingly, we hereby demand that Canelo cease and desist from making any further false and preposterous allegations against Oscar and Golden Boy. We also demand that Canelo immediately retract his defamatory allegations that Oscar stole from boxers. Oscar and Golden Boy reserve all rights to sue Canelo for the damages caused by these defamatory accusations, including punitive damages designed to ensure Canelo learns his lesson.”

Maybe after Canelo’s boxing match wraps up, he’ll have time to retract his statement and apologize? Or, more likely, he’ll share some more choice words with De La Hoya.

Stay tuned for further developments.

Insomnia

MMA is a brotherhood unlike most others, but uhhh, this is a new weight cutting technique to my eyes.

Michael Page and Khamzat Chimaev team up for a technique tip!

Mark Hunt is anticipating a big legal win opposite Dana White in the near future.

Makhmud Muradov withdrew from UFC 301 for undisclosed reasons, and that may have been his last action as a UFC fighter.

Kamaru Usman has proven himself a real friend on many occasions.

Jose Aldo’s development from hyper athletic Muay Thai destroyer to tactical and savvy veteran has been incredible to watch.

Slips, rips, and KO clips

Just a perfect step forward with the hook-cross:

6’8” and 6-0, Tallison Teixeira is a Heavyweight prospect to watch.

From the quick move into an S mount to how quickly he tucked the trapped wrist in the armpit, Marques would appear to be quite good at armbars.

Random Land

Now grappling sport just dropped.

Midnight Music: Punk rock, 1987

Sleep well Maniacs! More martial arts madness is always on the way.

Alex Pereira appears to be game for a potential heavyweight clash with current UFC champion Jon Jones.

On Friday, Pereira was in attendance for UFC 301’s Q&A in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and was asked about recent comments Jones made regarding a fight at heavyweight. Pereira, who just defended his UFC light heavyweight title for the first time against Jamahal Hill at UFC 300, was intrigued to say the least.

In typical Pereira form, “Poatan” didn’t have anything bad to say about Jones and remained rather cordial when discussing their potential matchup. Pereira has already mentioned a possible move up from 205 pounds in order to capture a third UFC belt so getting the two together inside of the Octagon might not be as hard as it seems.

“He said he wants this fight, and my job is to fight. This is for the promotion to decide, so let’s see what happens now,” said Pereira in Portuguese (h/t MMA Fighting).

“After my last fight I said I wanted to fight at heavyweight, but had no answer [from the UFC], so I kind of forgot it and my plans have changed. But there was this message from Jon Jones last night, so I don’t know if this might change [plans moving forward]. Becoming a three-division champion is very hard and not many people try it, but if I have that opportunity, I just want to bring joy to everyone and a better life for my family.”

This is great to hear from Pereira, but a variety of obstacles need to be cleared in order for a potential matchup against Jones to take place. Not only is Jones just returning from a torn pectoral muscle, but the UFC legend is expected to fight Stipe Miocic in his Octagon return. If victorious in that fight, Jones was expected to then meet current interim UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall in a title unification bout.

As for Pereira, he’s already targeting a rematch with former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka. After that, “Poatan” could find himself matched up against a well-deserving Magomed Ankalaev. It’s anyone’s guess right now, but any fight involving Pereira seems like the most attractive to fight fans at this time. His knockout ability is simply too good to pass up.

Thoughts?

Charles Oliveira is used to his own difficult weight cuts, but this week the former UFC lightweight champion helped teammate, Elves Brener, make weight for his fight at UFC 301 on Saturday night (May 4, 2024) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Brener, who is scheduled to meet lightweight finisher Myktybek Orolbai on the UFC 301 “Prelims” undercard, did not have a good cut down to 156 pounds. The lightweight prospect hasn’t really struggled with weight cuts through three UFC fights thus far, but things nearly took a turn for the worse ahead of this weekend’s card in Brazil.

Brener took to social media to share his grueling weight cut and it only raised red flags. Oliveira can been seen hugging his teammate and trying to assist him with his cut, but Brener nearly toppled over when he stood up. It was a scary scene to say the least. Check it out below:

Surprisingly, Brener successfully cut down to 156 pounds for Friday’s early weigh ins (results HERE). His fight with Orolbai has been made official, but what exactly will this agonizing weight cut cost Brener when it’s time to fight on Saturday?

Fight fans will have to monitor Brener’s condition heading into tomorrow, especially since UFC 301 already lost a “Prelims” fight due to a scary weigh in.

---

MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 301 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 301: “Pantoja vs. Erceg” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive events archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 301 fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.