Aldo vs. Pettis: Let the Division Log Jams Begin

It’s super fight city and MMA fans are all mayor elect, as result of the next super fight announcement of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo taking on Anthony “Showtime” Pettis on August 3rd.UFC president Dana White received a text message from Petti…

It’s super fight city and MMA fans are all mayor elect, as result of the next super fight announcement of UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo taking on Anthony “Showtime” Pettis on August 3rd.

UFC president Dana White received a text message from Pettis asking for Aldo on Saturday night, and it took less than three days to green light it.  While the announcement of this next super fight comes on the heels of the last one and will certainly stoke the fire of MMA fans, how will this have an effect on both the featherweight and lightweight divisions?

 

Title fights are coming and so is Christmas

While we know Gilbert Melendez will be fighting Benson Henderson for the lightweight title on the April 27th UFC on FOX 7 card, we don’t know now who will face the winner. 

It could potentially still be Pettis, who was set to face the winner of the lightweight title fight prior to Tuesday’s fight announcement between himself and Aldo.  If it is him, that would mean at least December or January for the next lightweight title fight.

Aldo and Pettis is happening in August, so it would obviously be the time frame for the next featherweight title fight as well, barring any setbacks due to injury, of course.

 

Pound for Pound/ Pound for Ten Pounds

Never mind calling out opponents for title fights in the style of Chael Sonnen, just cutting ten pounds to another division gets you to the front of the line. Are we seeing the new en vogue trend of MMA?  First Florian, then Edgar and now Pettis will drop down to feather weight to get a crack at Aldo. 

With only ten pounds separating light from feather and feather from bantam, I suppose it’s entirely possible this trend will increase and continue.

 

He stole my shot!!!

It comes as no surprise that Ricardo Lamas is upset about being passed over for a potential title shot vs Aldo, but let’s face facts here—Pettis vs. Aldo is a huge draw and Lamas is still a relative unknown to many outside of hardcore followers and media. 

The featherweights will now have ample time to make a case for who will be the next number one contender.  The current top 3 (according to the new UFC rankings) are Chad Mendes in the top spot, followed by Ricardo Lamas and Chang Sung-Jung.

As far as the lightweights go, they have less time, and maybe more opportunity now that Pettis is set to fight at featherweight in August.  After Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez fight for the lightweight strap at the end of April, a new No. 1 contender could emerge. 

The current top 3 according to the UFC rankings are Gilbert Melendez at No. 1, followed by Anthony Pettis and Gray Maynard.  I would suspect that even thought Pettis has stated he still wants to fight for the 155 crown, there will be another title fight at 155 after Henderson vs Melendez before he gets a crack.

 

Smoke and Mirrors

The new ranking system bears no meaning because match ups will still ultimately come down to Dana White and Joe Silva. 

What they will do—and have already done—is create debate and give the media and fans new titles to add to fighters other than their original nicknames.  Like it or not, more fighters are going to be passed over, more super fights are going to happen and more fighters are going to yo-yo between weight classes. 

As far as the rankings go—I can already hear Bruce Buffer say: “In this corner the number No. 2 ranked featherweight in the world…”

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Anthony Pettis: Jose Aldo Is a Tougher Fight Than Benson Henderson

Anthony Pettis has made it clear that he not only wants the biggest challenges, but he’s willing to move weight classes to prove he belongs in the discussion for best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. The former WEC champion was poised to take on…

Anthony Pettis has made it clear that he not only wants the biggest challenges, but he’s willing to move weight classes to prove he belongs in the discussion for best pound-for-pound fighters on the planet.

The former WEC champion was poised to take on the winner of the UFC on Fox 7 main event between Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez when out of nowhere, he decided to challenge featherweight champion Jose Aldo following the conclusion of UFC 156 last Saturday night.

Now Pettis will move down to 145 pounds to face one of the sport’s very best in Aldo, and in his opinion, a more imposing fight than facing the current UFC lightweight champion.

“To me, Aldo is a tougher fight—that’s why I asked for it,” Pettis stated during Tuesday night’s edition of UFC Tonight. “He’s one of those guys who has gone through his opponents like crazy and he just beat the last 155-pound champ. Aldo is definitely a tougher challenge for me.

“I’ve beaten Benson Henderson once, and I think I’m going to be doing it again soon, but right now, Aldo is the guy on my radar.”

Pettis isn’t wrong about facing and defeating Henderson previously because the two met in the final WEC fight ever in late 2010.  Pettis won the closely contested fight after five rounds where he also uncorked his now famous “Showtime kick” where he launched off the cage wall and blasted his opponent in the face with the front side of his foot.

The highlight made television shows everywhere and remains one of the most exciting moments in MMA history.

Pettis has already mentioned that he hopes to face Aldo in August and then move forward with facing either Henderson or Melendez for the lightweight title later this year.

“I have to cross those bridges when I get there, but my goal is to become the 155-pound champ,” said Pettis.

Pettis faces Aldo at what is currently called UFC 163 on August 3, although that number for the event could change depending on timing and other events the UFC schedules between now and then.

If Pettis is successful in his bid to defeat Aldo, and Henderson slips past Melendez in April, it could set the stage for a huge rematch in the UFC lightweight division.

The question remains did Anthony Pettis get it right—is Jose Aldo the tougher challenge than Benson Henderson?

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CagePotato Databomb #5: Breaking Down the UFC Lightweights by Striking Performance


(Click chart for full-size versionFor previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

Last week we broke down the UFC Featherweight division in key striking metrics. This week we’ll look at the largest (numerically) UFC division, the Lightweights. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Daron Cruickshank finally showed off his striking skills in his second UFC appearance against Henry Martinez on the UFC on FOX 5 card in Seattle. With nearly 50% accuracy, he looked like he was practicing on a heavy bag before mercifully dropping an iron-chinned Martinez with a head kick KO. Interestingly, the “Detroit Superstar” is set to face another division sniper, John Makdessi, in March at UFC 158.

Energizer Bunny Award: Tim Means is two wins into his UFC career, and has almost doubled the standing output of his two opponents. He also maintained good accuracy and scored two knockdowns in those performances.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Melvin Guillard has been punching above his weight for a long time in the UFC. To date Guillard has 12 knockdowns, putting him 3rd all-time in the UFC behind Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell. Not bad for a lightweight.


(Click chart for full-size versionFor previous Databombs, click here.)

By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics

Last week we broke down the UFC Featherweight division in key striking metrics. This week we’ll look at the largest (numerically) UFC division, the Lightweights. A full explanation of the chart and variables is included at the end of this post.

The Winners

Sniper Award: Daron Cruickshank finally showed off his striking skills in his second UFC appearance against Henry Martinez on the UFC on FOX 5 card in Seattle. With nearly 50% accuracy, he looked like he was practicing on a heavy bag before mercifully dropping an iron-chinned Martinez with a head kick KO. Interestingly, the “Detroit Superstar” is set to face another division sniper, John Makdessi, in March at UFC 158.

Energizer Bunny Award: Tim Means is two wins into his UFC career, and has almost doubled the standing output of his two opponents. He also maintained good accuracy and scored two knockdowns in those performances.

Biggest Ball(s) Award: Melvin Guillard has been punching above his weight for a long time in the UFC. To date Guillard has 12 knockdowns, putting him 3rd all-time in the UFC behind Anderson Silva and Chuck Liddell. Not bad for a lightweight.

The Losers

Swing and a Miss Award: Justin Salas has landed just 15% of his power head strikes in his first two UFC fights and appears at the bottom of the graphed fighters. But (dis)honorable mention also goes to Mitch “Danger Zone” Clarke, who is 0 for 47 in power head strikes through nearly 25 minutes of Octagon time. Unfortunately, because Clarke was so far into the danger zone, I couldn’t fit him onto the graph.

Smallest Ball(s): 15 of the 55 lightweight fighters graphed have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa appearances, not an unusual number for a lower weight division. But Mark Bocek and Thiago Tavares have failed to do so despite over two hours of Octagon time each. Given that both fighters tend to be outpaced by their opponents, perhaps they need to try planting their feet.

Starnes Award for Inaction: Reza Madadi has had solid accuracy through his first two UFC appearances, but had less than half the striking output of his opponents. He’ll need to step on the gas if he doesn’t want to drop close decisions in the future.

Also Noteworthy

In a division made famous by strong wrestlers, it’s no surprise that the top ranked fighters aren’t pure strikers. But keep an eye on Anthony Pettis, who will bring a striking advantage to his recently announced featherweight fight against current champion Jose Aldo. Aldo has had sharper striking than most of his opponents to date, so this will be an interesting challenge.

Despite his recent UD loss to Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz shows impressive accuracy and the ability to push the pace — at least, when he has vision in both eyes. He’s down but not out.

For those counting red bubbles, the Lightweight division has a high 27% share of left-handers, about three times the normal rate for the population.

The lightweight division is often thought to be the deepest in the UFC, but we’ll have to see how the new additions play out against tried-and-true veterans.

How the Analysis Works:

In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:

Accuracy: I’ve used power head striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Lightweights is about 26%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. And in order to keep this comparison apples-to-apples, we can’t have a guy that throws a lot of high accuracy leg kicks skewing his accuracy stat. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.

Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.

Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect a fighter that has connected with a powerful strike. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter landed divided by the number of landed power head strikes to see who does the most damage per strike landed. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.

The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through 2012, including UFC 155. Some of these fighters competed in other weight classes or at catchweight, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed. Because of the size of the division, fighters with only one fight were not included in the graph.

For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.

Anthony Pettis vs. Jose Aldo: Sparks Are Going to Fly

Anthony Pettis is my hero! After two knockouts with his patented “Left Leg of Destiny,” Pettis is getting his chance to take on Jose Aldo for the belt. Or is it for pride? I’m going with pride.  There are only a few guys in the game th…

Anthony Pettis is my hero!

After two knockouts with his patented “Left Leg of Destiny,” Pettis is getting his chance to take on Jose Aldo for the belt.

Or is it for pride?

I’m going with pride.  There are only a few guys in the game that are down to scrap against the best in the world.  We are slowly finding out who they are.

Taking a note out of the Chael Sonnen handbook, Pettis is calling out none other than the champ.  And that’s what you do.

It’s not enough to have cemented oneself as next in line for a shot at the strap after Henderson and Melendez battle it out.  No, Pettis wants the whole pie.

But what I love is the fact that he automatically makes no issue over cutting the weight to 145.

In the sport of wrestling, competitors are always sucking down to make the weight in order to challenge a great wrestler. The bigger guy never tells the smaller wrestler to bump up a weight class to wrestle at an advantage.

That’s typical of what a bully would do.

So, when the news broke that Dana White made the fight at featherweight it pumped me up ten times more than when I heard Frankie Edgar was getting his chance. 

Main point being, there’s going to be a knockout.

These two knockout artists are going to step into the octagon conscious, and one will exit significantly more dizzy-headed than the other.

And that’s what we want.  I’m guilty of it. 

I want a firefight!

From the moment Pettis stepped into the WEC to his last fight against Donald Cerrone, there’s one accolade that can be specifically attributed to the lightweight competitor.

He has yet to freeze.

The ability to keep bringing the best each and every time in the octagon is something that’s going to keep a fighter on the UFC roster.  Win or lose, there would still be a job to feed your family with.

Sometimes fighters go out there and completely underperform.  It usually brings up questions of retirement. 

But at 26 years old, “Showtime” is the most palpable nickname he could have.

With both fighters constantly looking for the knockout we shouldn’t have to worry about a wrestling match.  But be prepared to press rewind on your remote because we all know it’s going to end in a flash.

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Jose Aldo vs. Anthony Pettis : “This Is a Fight for the Fans”

The UFC wasted no time in deciding that Jose Aldo vs. Anthony Pettis was the fight to make in the featherweight division. Just two days after the end of UFC 156, where Aldo successfully defended his title against former lightweight champion Frankie Edg…

The UFC wasted no time in deciding that Jose Aldo vs. Anthony Pettis was the fight to make in the featherweight division.

Just two days after the end of UFC 156, where Aldo successfully defended his title against former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, the promotion opted to give Anthony Pettis the next crack at the belt after sending UFC President Dana White a text message asking for the opportunity.

Pettis will move down to 145 lbs after earning the next shot at the lightweight title following his blistering performance, knocking out Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone at UFC on Fox 6 in January.

The waiting really was the hardest part for Pettis, who sat out most of 2012 due to shoulder surgery—after a great win to kick off the year, he didn’t want to sit out hoping to face the winner of Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez, who battle on April 20 at UFC on Fox 7.

Instead he’ll drop weight classes and challenge Aldo in August with high hopes of coming away victorious, then returning to the lightweight division to face either Henderson or Melendez by the end of the year.

According to Pettis‘ manager Mike Roberts of MMA Inc who spoke to Bleacher Report on Tuesday, the deal to get the fight with Aldo happened in rapid fashion with all parties finally coming to an agreement around 11:30 p.m. PT on Monday night.  This was just hours after Pettis spoke to Bleacher Report about his desire to land the featherweight title fight. 

It appears the UFC was listening and wanted to make Pettis‘ dream fight a reality.

Roberts says the UFC was all about putting Pettis in the fight with Aldo, and they expect big returns on the August 3 showdown because this matchup was made specifically for the fans.

“This is a fight for the fans,” Roberts told Bleacher Report on Tuesday.  “Anthony is all about challenges and what better way to challenge himself than to take a fight like this.”

The fight between Pettis and Aldo will be part of a card landing on Saturday, August 3—while the UFC has made no official announcement, it’s expected to be a pay-per-view showing. 

The week prior to the Aldo vs. Pettis fight is a July 27 card currently scheduled as a UFC on Fox show.  The UFC has routinely placed UFC on Fox shows ahead of major pay-per-view cards to help build momentum into those events.

UFC on Fox 6 took place just a week away from UFC 156, and UFC on Fox 7 happens seven days prior to UFC 159 featuring Ultimate Fighter coaches Jon Jones and Chael Sonnen in the main event.

It’s unclear at this time where the Aldo and Pettis fight will take place, but several locations are possible.  A venue will likely be announced in the coming weeks, along with supporting fights for the card.

Damon Martin is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report. All quotes were obtained first hand unless otherwise noted.

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Could Anthony Pettis Feasibly Beat Aldo and Henderson Back to Back?

Jose Aldo recently defended his featherweight strap against Frankie Edgar in the main event of UFC 156. After Aldo defeated Edgar, many were left wondering who the next featherweight title shot would go to. Would it be “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sun…

Jose Aldo recently defended his featherweight strap against Frankie Edgar in the main event of UFC 156.

After Aldo defeated Edgar, many were left wondering who the next featherweight title shot would go to. Would it be “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung?

How about Ricardo Lamas, who is coming off a nasty elbow stoppage of Erik Koch?

Could it possibly be Dustin Poirier or Dennis Siver? What about Cub Swanson?

Well the person getting the next shot will not be any of the five fighters I just mentioned. According to USA Today, it will be perennial lightweight contender Anthony “Showtime” Pettis.

Pettis, who many think is on the verge of a lightweight title shot, called and received the fight with Aldo. It was a very interesting move by the lightweight star. The fight has now been made official for August 3rd.

Now comes a very interesting question. Can Pettis defeat Aldo and move back up to lightweight and potentially beat Benson Henderson? This is assuming of course that Melendez doesn’t dethrone the champion in their fight at UFC on Fox 7.

Pettis first needs to get past Aldo. It’s a very interesting fight for a few reasons. Pettis is an extremely fast and unorthodox fighter with incredibly dangerous striking. His wins over Lauzon and Cerrone prove that much. He is also very tricky off his back and will attempt countless submissions from that position.

I think that Pettis has a legitimate shot at defeating Aldo. If that feat is accomplished, then a move back to lightweight and an immediate title shot should be the next step.

If Henderson is indeed still the lightweight king, then all the better. These two fighters have history. Pettis defeated Henderson for the WEC lightweight title in the promotions last fight; it was an incredible fight and it was also the last time Henderson lost.

Pettis is good enough to accomplish both of these goals. It would be incredible to see this happen. Two tough fighters stand in the way of this ever materializing, but if there’s a fighter that could do this, Anthony Pettis is a solid choice.

Ask and you shall receive right?

Tweet me @FuscoNation16

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