UFC Fight Night 39: Main Event of Big Country vs. Big Nog Signals Changing Times

Perhaps the story of Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is one of lowered expectations—about the fighters and the kind of fight we think of as a UFC main event.
Nelson and Nogueira both come into UFC Fight Night 39 on the heels of losses, bo…

Perhaps the story of Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is one of lowered expectations—about the fighters and the kind of fight we think of as a UFC main event.

Nelson and Nogueira both come into UFC Fight Night 39 on the heels of losses, bonded by nothing aside from their middling promotional records (6-5 for Nelson, 5-4 for Nogueira) and similarly precarious positions in the heavyweight landscape.

Their matchup smacks of randomness. We expect few surprises. To the extent there are any assessable stakes, this fight shapes up as one that would be disastrous for either to lose while not being overly meaningful to win. It’ll be held on a Friday afternoon in a temporary stadium in the United Arab Emirates at a time when most Americans will be at work.

In other words, it’s strange to think of a fight like “Big Country” vs. “Big Nog” as the marquee attraction on a show booked by the world’s largest MMA promotion.

Even for a card that will air exclusively on UFC Fight Pass—an entity we’re all still trying to get a read on—this bout seems a specious choice as a headliner.

Perhaps it’s a sign of shifting tides. As the organization’s ever-inflating schedule increases its demands on fans and the roster, we’re all being forced to readjust the perception of what it means to be a “main event.”

Because Nelson vs. Nogueira? That ain’t it.

A former IFL champion, Nelson won The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 crown in 2009 but has never broken through as a top contender in the Octagon. His swing-for-the-fences style and lackadaisical attitude have won him fans, but back-to-back defeats to end 2013 likely signaled his permanent return to the B-list.

Nogueira is one of the greatest heavyweights of all time, but his glory days are far behind him. The former Pride champ and UFC interim titlist has fought just four times since February of 2010, going 2-2. He’ll be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when the time comes, but right now it feels like that time can’t come soon enough.

A year ago, a fight between these two guys would have been fortunate to earn a supporting role on a pay-per-view or cable TV main card. Now, through the wonder of technology and the UFC’s bold international expansion, it’s ascended to Internet main event status.

This is a natural byproduct of world domination, I suppose. The UFC plans to put on close to 50 events this year, and it needs warm bodies to staff them all. Particularly, it needs bouts with recognizable faces to stock the overseas cards for the new digital network that it’s trying urgently to sell to its hardcore fanbase.

If the fight company is going to fill the 2014 calendar to bursting with shows all over the globe (not to mention multiple broadcast platforms, at all times of the day and night), they’re not all going to be gems. Not every main event will be for a title. Not every one can have No. 1 contendership at stake. Not every one can even come equipped with particularly coherent storylines.

Some of them will have to be Nelson vs. Nogueira: an entertaining, though ultimately out-of-context scrap between two likable guys on the downside of good careers.

There’s obviously nothing wrong with booking a fight for fighting’s sake—that’s sort of what is done in this industry—but if all we want is to watch a disconnected bout between two hard-swinging heavyweights, we could get that for free on Friday nights on Spike or AXS TV. We could get it at the local bingo hall or even the local bar, depending on what kind of evening we want to have.

History has taught us to expect slightly more from a UFC main event. We expect meaning and well-defined consequences. We expect the biggest fight on the card to contribute somehow to the bigger picture—the eternal, company-wide search to find the best fighters in the world.

Or at least we used to.

Big Nog vs. Big Country doesn’t really do any of that. It’s just a fightone we might watch if we can spare the $9.99 per month and don’t have anything else going on.

Again, that’s not a terrible thing.

But it’s not main event quality, either.

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UFC Fight Night 39: Keys to Victory for Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira and Roy Nelson will compete against one another in the main event at UFC Fight Night 39 in Abu Dhabi.
The two heavyweights enter the evening ranked No. 11 and No. 9 respectively. The winner may have an o…

Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira and Roy Nelson will compete against one another in the main event at UFC Fight Night 39 in Abu Dhabi.

The two heavyweights enter the evening ranked No. 11 and No. 9 respectively. The winner may have an outside shot of working themselves back into title contention, and the loser will all but see his hopes dashed in the heat of the United Arab Emirates.

Nogueira has not had back-to-back wins since a three-fight win streak was snapped in 2008. Since that time he has traded wins and losses. We last seen him inside the cage in a losing effort to No. 2-ranked Fabricio Werdum last summer.

The 37-year-old has a stiff challenge in Nelson. He will have to have a resurgence in order to nab a win away from the younger man.

These are Minotauro‘s keys to victory for UFC Fight Night 39.

 

Point Fight

Everyone loves a finish, but Minotauro has to be realistic in this matchup.

Nelson is notoriously hard to finish. He can take shots on the feet without going down, and on the mat he is one of the most competent grapplers. This is not a great matchup for Nogueira in his current athletic state.

He needs to point fight.

Nogueira should look to touch Nelson up on his feet with jabs and straight punches. He can avoid getting into a slugfest, and simply pick his shots to keep a running tally on the judge’s scorecards.

It is a five-round fight. He only needs to win three.

The former decorated champion would be best served by keeping a methodical pace while trying to point fight.

 

Avoid the Bottom

Nogueira’s jiu-jitsu was a near-mythological being at one time in this sport. That time has past.

He has been stopped twice inside the Octagon via submission. Nelson is a very good grappler in his own right, and it is not out of the realm that he could lock up an appendage in Abu Dhabi.

The adage of “position before submission” holds true in this matchup more than most. Nogueira will not be able to easily sweep Nelson. He must avoid the bottom. It does not look good in the eyes of the judges, and Nelson has a solid top game.

Minotauro will not earn a second straight win if Nelson is successful with getting him on the canvas.

 

Mix It Up

Nelson is perhaps the better technical boxer, and he is also the better wrestler. For Nogueira to be successful in this fight he needs to mix up his attacks.

Nogueira is certainly a live dog in this fight, but he needs to keep Nelson guessing.

If he can do that, he can be successful in both the stand-up and in getting Nelson down on the mat. If he is able to do that, the former champion will look good in this fight. He will not be banking on a finish. He will need to push this fight into deep waters while winning rounds.

If Nogueira tries to strike or grapple singularly, he will fail. He has to feint, make Nelson bite and then he can find spots for his offense. Nelson must be put off-balance.

That is how Nogueira has to win this fight. At this point in his career his outs are becoming less and less, and this matchup is not the best for finding success. He has to fight smart.

Minotauro will need to fight the perfect fight to pick up the win.

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UFC Fight Night 39: It’s Do-or-Die Time for Minotauro Nogueira

The sharks are a-circlin’.
Not even the ones you see in the Octagon on a seemingly weekly basis. Actually, aside from one heavyweight, mullet-clad slugger, those sharks are the least of the concerns at the moment.
No, the sharks in question are all ove…

The sharks are a-circlin’.

Not even the ones you see in the Octagon on a seemingly weekly basis. Actually, aside from one heavyweight, mullet-clad slugger, those sharks are the least of the concerns at the moment.

No, the sharks in question are all over the MMA community. They’re waiting to feed on failure, waiting to smell blood in the water so they can get their fill.

And Antonio Rodrigo “Minotauro” Nogueira is out for a swim, treading water and oblivious to those sharks so invested in the outcome of his headliner against Roy Nelson at Fight Night 39.

You see, for all the love and the admiration that the legend engenders from fans around the globe, he’s become a nearly tragic figure in the dying light of his MMA career. His own competitive will keeps him coming back to the cage, his own undying heart sees him still winning some fights there, and yet, people still sit waiting for something bad to come his way.

Perhaps, it’s because he moves like a geriatric and has endured more punishment in his 37 years than most people would go through in three lifetimes.

Perhaps, it’s the intensity of his recent losses, punctuated by snapped limbs or violent knockouts that simply didn’t happen to him in his prime.

Perhaps, it’s the feeling that, for every time he escapes with “bad but could have been worse,” he gets closer to escaping with just plain “bad,” and that could have irreversible, negative consequences on his life beyond the cage.

Whatever it is, people love Nogueira, but they’re largely waiting for the other shoe to drop on his career. They are indeed just a-circlin’, waiting for it all to go south so they can implore him that he’s done enough and beg him to retire.

The fact is that, when faced with similar situations in the past, Nogueira has risen to the occasion. Most thought he was done when Cain Velasquez effortlessly stopped him; most thought he was done when Frank Mir snapped his arm in half, and most think he’s done now.

And yet, after the Velasquez and Mir losses, Nogueira returned fire by obliterating Brendan Schaub and subbing Dave Herman, respectively. Does the reading of those tea leaves tell us anything, considering his last loss was another disgusting submission injury at the hands of Fabricio Werdum?

Maybe, maybe not.

That’s why, against Nelson, it truly is do-or-die time for the Brazilian megastar. If he loses in Abu Dhabi, it will be two in a row and five of his last eight, with those eight fights dragged out across nearly six years.

He’s simply been too banged up and inactive to get any momentum, and with a loss to Nelson, he’ll be so far down the pecking order that time and his own body will likely betray him right out of relevance.

A win though? Perhaps one that he escapes with little more than some bumps and bruises? He could fight again by the end of the year, and with a win, he could actually break into the top five in one of the promotion’s thinnest divisions.

Big Nog on the title warpath? It unquestionably seems far-fetched, probably even outrageous. But in a division where fights can end with a single shot and there aren’t enough top-level guys to flesh out a deep list of contenders, it’s not totally impossible.

But that relative pipe dream starts with a win over Nelson. If he cannot get it going there, it might well mark a nearing of the end of his road. You’ll never take the fight out of Nogueira, for even if he’s not a contender, he’ll always be a competitor. You’ll have to pry his gloves from his cold, dead hands.

Fight Night 39 may be his last real chance to sink or swim though, so rest assured, those sharks will be watching to see which it is.

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Dana White: Little Nog Never Accepted Fight with Alexander Gustafsson

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is getting a ton of flack for withdrawing from a matchup with top contender Alexander Gustafsson, but according to UFC President Dana White, the highly regarded Brazilian fighter never accepted the bout. 
White shed some l…

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is getting a ton of flack for withdrawing from a matchup with top contender Alexander Gustafsson, but according to UFC President Dana White, the highly regarded Brazilian fighter never accepted the bout. 

White shed some light on the matter at the UFC Fight Night 32 post-fight press conference, per MMA Fighting (transcription via Mixedmartialarts.com).

“The fight isn’t for four months, and he’s already determined he’s hurt,” White said regarding Nogueira. “I don’t understand that. The guy is always hurt. Every time you call him, he’s hurt. What happened was that night we decided to make the fight, Gustafsson said yes, and they couldn’t get hold of (Little Nog), so I said, ‘F— it,’ and just went with it and announced the fight. And of course, he’s hurt.”

According to the UFC’s official rankings, “Little Nog” is the fifth-best 205-pounder in the world, and rightfully so, after back-to-back wins over former champions Tito Ortiz and Rashad Evans. 

Nevertheless, it is impossible to ignore Nogueira’s recent durability issues, only competing six times in the past four years. 

At 37 years old, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt may want to start considering retirement as the long-term training injuries continue to pile up. 

Instead of Nogueira, Gustafsson will now face undefeated prospect Jimi Manuwa in London on March 8 at a yet to be named event, per MMA Mania

UFC light heavyweight champ Jon Jones was critical of the initial matchmaking, stating that Nogueira vs. Gustafsson made no sense from a rankings standpoint, per MMA Fighting

Will Nogueira ever be able to turn back the clock and return to the vintage form he enjoyed inside the Pride ring, or are his best days as a fighter clearly behind him at this point? 

  

John Heinis is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He is also the MMA Editor for eDraft.com

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5 Oldest-Looking Fighters in MMA

MMA has a way of aging people prematurely. That’s just my observation. I’m no doctor, but it’s probably got something to do with getting hit in the face and head a lot, constant heavy-contact training, major repeated weight cuts and so on. It’s my gut …

MMA has a way of aging people prematurely. That’s just my observation. I’m no doctor, but it’s probably got something to do with getting hit in the face and head a lot, constant heavy-contact training, major repeated weight cuts and so on. It’s my gut feeling.

But the sport tends to age some more quickly than others. Here are the five MMA fighters who appear to be aging in dog years.

 

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Little Nog: Chael Sonnen Is ‘Pure Marketing,’ I Have No Interest in Fighting Him

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is calling a knockout by his fellow Brazilian countryman, Mauricio Rua, against American rival Chael Sonnen at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 26. 
After that, Little Nog has no interest in a grudge match with Sonnen, preferrin…

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is calling a knockout by his fellow Brazilian countryman, Mauricio Rua, against American rival Chael Sonnen at Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 26

After that, Little Nog has no interest in a grudge match with Sonnen, preferring a rematch with Shogun since he believes he’s a higher-caliber fighter, as MMA Fighting’s Guilherme Cruz reported

Sonnen may take him down twice, but he won’t be able to do that for five rounds. He will need to stand at some point of the fight and Shogun will tag him. I believe Shogun will knock him out … I want to fight again this year, absolutely. (Shogun) is good fight, a good option for me … That fight (with Sonnen) doesn’t interest me because I want to fight the best, and there are a lot of fighters that are better than him, including Shogun, Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans. Chael talks trash, he’s pure marketing. If we keep talking about him, that’s what he wants. He fought three times for the world title and got beat up. He tried to make his name when Anderson was fighting him injured, and we all saw what happened in the second fight.

Nogueira lost an entertaining back-and-forth brawl with Rua back in June 2005 under the Pride banner and was set to try and avenge the loss at UFC 161.

However, Nogueira sustained a back injury just two weeks before the June pay-per-view which forced him off the card, via Tim Burke of Bloody Elbow

From a rankings standpoint, Nogueira vs. Rua II makes sense, as the UFC’s official light heavyweight top 10 list has Nog at No. 6 and Rua at No. 8. 

Of course, if Sonnen beats Rua this weekend, those rankings will change significantly.

Additionally, The American Gangster is a three-time UFC title challenger, though he has come up short in each attempt, with two of those losses coming at the hands of then-champion Anderson Silva.

Sonnen took the fight to The Spider at UFC 117 back in August 2010, losing due to a late Hail Mary submission in Round 5 but lost by a more convincing Round 2 TKO in the rematch at UFC 148 last July.

As Nogueira pointed out, naysayers believe Sonnen only had success against Silva the first time around since Silva entered the bout with a rib injury, via Anton Tabuena of Bloody Elbow.  

Is Nogueira’s criticism of Sonnen right on the money or is his personal vendetta against the American fighter clouding his judgment?  

 

John Heinis is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He is also the MMA Editor for eDraft.com.

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