It’s been a long road, ladies and gentlemen, but it seems the time of network television MMA not involving Kimbo Slice and a screaming Gus Johnson is finally upon us. UFC on Fox kicks off at 9 o’clock tomorrow night, and for those of you who are looking to get some last minute gambling in, well, allow us to help you scratch that itch. Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our Morgan Freeman-eqsue advice on what to do below.
Main Card/Event:
Cain Velasquez (-175) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+155)
Preliminary Card
Benson Henderson (-260) vs. Clay Guida (+220)
Dustin Poirier (-300) vs. Pablo Garza (+250)
Aaron Rosa (-140) vs. Matt Lucas (+120)
Mike Pierce (-340) vs. Paul Bradley (+280)
Mackens Sermizer (-115) vs. Robert Peralta (-105)
DaMarques Johnson (-270) vs. Clay Harvison (+230)
Norifumi Yamamoto (-360) vs. Darren Uyenoyama (+300)
Ricardo Lamas (-145) vs. Cub Swanson (+125)
Cole Escovedo (-260) vs. Alex Caceres (+220)
The Main Event: With his granite chin, KO power, and stellar wrestling base, Velasquez deserves to be the favorite here, but then again, it’s been just under a year since we’ve seen him compete. Dos Santos hasn’t been much more active, aside from his dismantling of Shane Carwin back at UFC 131, which along with his fight against Roy Nelson, has shown that “Cigano” tends to coast in the later rounds when unable to finish in the first.
But there is one outside factor that seems to have been overlooked here, and that is the Fox deal itself. Now, we’re not saying that Cain is being offered some kind of “stand up” bonus, but you have to imagine that the UFC would not want their first major network fight to be a 25 minute wrestlefuckfest. Will Cain try to stand with Dos Santos, even though he clearly has an advantage in the grappling game? Our guess is no, and if Dos Santos couldn’t knock out Nelson or Carwin, then he ain’t knocking out the champ, who should take this one.
The Good Dogs: Honestly, there aren’t many on this card. Pablo Garza has looked great in his last two outings, but Dustin Poirier’s pressure and superior striking game should earn him the victory there. Both Alex Caceres and Cole Escovedo have looked equally unimpressive in their last two performances, but “Apache Kid” should be able to handle “Bruce Leroy” with ease. And let’s hope he does, because we’re getting pretty tired of watching Caceres disgrace the great Bruce Lee with a smile on his face each time he steps into the octagon. The rest of the pack isn’t really worth wasting your time over, unless you have a thing for ridiculous, California-themed tattoos.
So that leaves us with Clay Guida. Say what you want about the (cave)man, but Guida knows how to follow a gameplan if nothing else. And lord knows he’s played the role of underdog before and come away victorious. But he’s facing a man who’s better than him in virtually every aspect, save cardio, in Ben Henderson. You think Guida can shoulder strike his way to the next lightweight title shot? Then a bet on him seems fine, just don’t get pissed at us when you don’t see any return on it.
The Easy Bets: DaMarques Johnson, for starters. He’s never been one for consistency, but he is way too seasoned, and has more ways to win than Clay Harvison, who got absolutely dominated by Seth Baczynski in his last outing. Also, “Kid” Yamamoto is going to go apeshit on Darren Uyenoyama, who we’re not sure is ready for UFC level competition to begin with.
Official CagePoato Parlay: Velasquez +Henderson + Johnson + Rosa
50 bucks nets you $205. 32, or enough to get that replica belt ironically signed by Jon Jones and Mauricio Rua. Not bad considering there are no underdogs in that parlay.
-Danga
It was Nov. 18, 2006, when Ben Henderson entered the sport of mixed martial arts to take on Dan Gregary in North Platte, Neb.