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Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 149 Edition

(We’re going ((win)) streaking!!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Grab your cowboy hats and pack up your saddles my fellow CP readers, because this weekend we are headed to the home of the world famous Calgary Stampede, Calgary, Alberta, Canada for UFC 149 Barao vs Faber! From a wagering standpoint, this card is pretty much a prime example of why bookies offer MMA betting lines, as this card is chock full of close fights and odds that will surely entice the gambling public as well as crush the majority of parlays, all the while raking in money for the house.

Luckily for you (or not), we do not have to go on the cuff for this card, as those who followed UFC 148’s GAE were rewarded with a 4 team parlay that paid out 7 to 1 at the window. All betting odds are courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, so join me as I try to offer some insight on how to go after plus units on Saturday’s upcoming card.

Bryan Caraway (-190) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+175)

Both fighters have strong submission skills, but I believe Caraway is the favorite because the majority of the public believe “Kid Lighting” is the better submission fighter out of the two. At around -200, Caraway should have what it takes to out-grapple his Canadian counterpart and find a way to win this fight. This may be stretching my psychic abilities to the max, but upon victory, I expect Caraway to announce that he is undergoing a sex change, signing with Strikeforce, and challenging Ronda Rousey to a “loser leaves town” match at 135 lbs. Any takers?

(We’re going ((win)) streaking!!)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

Bryan Caraway (-190) vs. Mitch Gagnon (+175)

Ryan Jimmo (-165) vs. Anthony Perosh (+155)

It has been a long time coming for CP’s own Ryan Jimmo, who will be riding a 16-fight win streak and fighting in his own backyard against the always tough (not to mention streaking) Australian vet Anthony Perosh. This fight boils down to whether or not Jimmo can find himself on top of Perosh for sustained periods of the fight en route to scoring a stoppage or decision win (likely the latter). I can’t pick a winner here, but I will go with the prop that the fight goes over 2.5 rounds or fight goes the distance. Jimmo will not be easily submitted and Perosh will not be easily finished; those are the only things I am certain of in this fight.

Rolande Delorme (+107) vs. Francisco Rivera (-117)

TUF 14 alum Roland Delorme has looked better with each appearance in the octagon, most recently “stunning” than submitting slight favorite and fellow Canuck Nick Denis at UFC on FOX 3. That said, I still think Francisco is the better all around fighter and is only a slight favorite because of where this event is taking place. I see Delorme possibly being able to find himself on the ground in favorable positions with Rivera, but Rivera’s no slouch, and should be able to control the fight on the feet and fend off most of what Delorme has to offer on the ground. I would just enjoy this fight and take some notes for future reference.

Court McGee (+100) vs. Nick Ring (-110)

I’ll put it simply: If this goes the distance, McGee is going down. Nick was able to best McGee in their bout back on TUF 11, and it’s not like Ring hasn’t been gifted decisions in the past (Riki Fukuda). Considering that the heroic tale of Nick Ring thwarting a mugging has captivated the local community, I would not be surprised to see him pull out another close decision in his fight with McGee, thanks in no small part to the seedy underbelly of both Canada and MMA judging in general. That’s right, the fix is in and I’m calling it. I think Court has hit a plateau of sorts, and unless he presses forward and tries to finish this fight, he may become a victim of that round bacon-eating, Molson-drinking excuse for a crowd (I kid, I kid). Again, a prop bet that this fight is decided by the judges will be where I look at laying my money.

Matt Riddle (-150) vs. Chris Clements (+140)

Matt Riddle has consistently shown that he is willing to fight for the fans (look no further than his most recent win over Henry Martinez) and I believe that, while he could lay-n-pray his way to victory here, he may just go out and stand toe-to-toe with Clements. Unless Riddle has made a marked improvement in his striking game, I am going to lean on the Canuck as the underdog to find a way to win this fight by outgunning Riddle.

Brian Ebersole (-360) vs. James Head (+325)

File this one under “bad odds.” Much like with the Mendes/Mckenzie fight at UFC 148, the best opportunity to make some money here is by finding a prop on Ebersole winning inside the distance. I do not see this fight going the distance, so this is where anything near -400 territory is ignored in favor of even money on the prop side of the book.

Cheick Kongo (+115) vs. Shawn Jordan (-125)

All signs point towards Jordan and the price is ultra alluring. This line has recently tipped in favor of Jordan, but like with Riki Fukuda at UFC 148, line movement is not gospel and often can be misleading. In this instance, Jordan is the favorite and seems to have all the tools to stop Kongo with his striking if he keeps it on the feet and avoids Cheick’s unconventional style of GnP (shorts grabbing, testicle shattering, etc). I really want to say Jordan takes this by TKO, but I can’t ignore Cheick’s ability to pull wins/draws/decisions out of his ass when he is counted out by the public. If there is plus money on the prop that this fight goes the distance, I will be looking to put my money there, but picking a winner could be a parlay crusher.

Hector Lombard (-375) vs. Tim Boetsch (+335)

While I want to suggest Tim Boetsch will find a way to take this fight down on the cards, or take advantage of a gassed Lombard as the fight goes on, I keep picturing Boetsch moving forward and exchanging with Hector en route to suddenly finding himself looking up at the lights. It is no news that Hector hits harder than anyone Boetsch has faced before and I think Hector will be able to find Boetsch’s off switch before the end of the third round. Boetsch does not throw the straightest of punches and his constantly pressing style plays right into Hector’s powerhouse hands.

That being said, at Boetsch’s current rate, even a small bet could pay off if Lombard decided to come down with a case of the octagon jitters. “The Barbarian” doesn’t have nearly as much to prove as Lombard, who has likely been under a tremendous amount of pressure and stress to prove that he is more than a glorified can crusher, so a small bet on Boetsch wouldn’t be a terrible idea, just an incredibly risky one. In either case, just keep it the hell away from your parlay.

Renan Barao (-185) vs. Urijah Faber (+170)

I have heard that Barao looks depleted and so on, but I contribute this to his travel to the great white north more than anything. I think come fight night, Barao makes Faber his 30th straight victim for more reasons than I have time to list. Simply put, this feels like Aldo/Faber 2, and like his training partner from Nova Uniao, Barao will find Faber’s lead leg with ease while picking “The California Kid” apart using his reach and those devastating knee’s. The -200 price tag is another reason that Barao is a parlay must here. Currently 0-4 in his last 4 title fights, Faber is going to show us what he does best as of late when gold is on the line, push the fight to the limit but come up short in the end.

Parlay 1
Caraway-Clements-Barao

Parlay 2(Bellator bonus)
Zaromskis-Wiuff-Barao

Props
-Jimmo/Perosh goes the distance
-Ring/McGee goes the distance
-Ebersole/Head does not go the distance
-Ebersole wins inside the distance

Bet what you feel comfortable with and may the winners be yours!

As always, please share your thoughts on who you think will win this Saturday night in the comments section.

UFC 149 MMAFix Picks

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165) Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although.

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165)
Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although Faber is considered the underdog in the fight, I say Faber by decision or Barao by submission choke in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Faber

Emily: The oddsmakers are right on in choosing Renan Barao as the favorite. Not only will he come out with the victory, but he is the highest value bet. We will no doubt be seeing him fight for the bantamweight title as soon as the champ recovers. Winner: Pagado

John: This is a tough one. Renan Barao is the clear favorite mainly due to his sick ass 29 fight win streak, and don’t get me wrong he is a bad dude, but people need to remember that we’re dealing with the alpha male of team Alpha Male—so show some respect b*tches!! Both of these guys are finishers, but I think they’ll more than likely cancel each other out in that regard. It will all come down to the takedown battle. If the “California Kid” can score enough takedowns to keep Barao from really getting going on the standup, I think he is good enough to avoid his opponent’s rather spectacular submission game for the decision victory. If he can’t, then Barao will pick him apart the whole time while periodically stuffing takedowns for a unanimous nod from the judges. I give a slight edge to Barao for his standup, but I definitely don’t think the betting line is where it should be for this fight. Urijah Faber is a killer, period! He fought Mike Brown for five with two f*cked up hands and went five with Aldo at 145lbs…that said I still have Barao coming up with the decision. Winner: Pagado

Ryan: The day Barao beat Brad Pickett, I knew he would be champion. I think Faber is of the elite, but Barao is a 135 pound Jose Aldo, and Aldo gave Faber a beating. Barao by decision. Winner: Pagado

Alan: Faber is a fan favorite and it’s always hard to pick against him but Pagado is superior in almost every area. He’ll win this fight relatively easily probably taking at least four rounds on the way to a decision. If the line was a little more lopsided, I might be inclined to take a flyer on Faber but +165 isn’t enough to make it worth it. Winner: Pagado

MMAFIX Staff Pick: Pagado (4-1)

Hector Lombard (-390) vs. Tim Boetsch (+320)

John: Replacing the injured Brian Stann, Tim Boetsch is going to have his hands full with Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard. On an impressive 24 fight win streak of his own, Lombard has the power to put the “Barbarian” away, but as Boetsch showed in his last bout against former title challenger Yushin
Okami, you can beat the sh*t out of him the whole fight, and he can still knock you out in brutal fashion. Lombard, a former Olympian, has the resume to beat Boetsch on paper. The question here is whether or not Lombard f*cks people up the way he does because he has been fighting lower level competition or because he really is just that good. Either way we’ll find out Saturday.

Even though I’m rooting for Boetsch, I have to go with Lombard by first round KO or second round TKO—bro, he called out “the Warmaster,” heavyweight Josh Barnett….that’s right heavyweight.

For those of you who don’t understand, this means two things:

1. Hector Lombard has huge balls
2. Hector Lombard is just about the rawest motherf***er out there….sometimes you just have to believe in the crazy person.

Winner: Lombard

Ryan: I think that people make Lombard out to be better than he really is, and he hasn’t quite proved himself to be in the top 10 of the division yet. With that However, Tim boetsch is only in the top 10 from a crazy come from behind KO of Yushin Okami. With that being said, I agree with Lombard being the favorite, but not sure if the it’s too much in the favor of Lombard or not. Lombard knows if he is impressive in this fight he could get a title shot, so look for Lombard to end this fight quite. Lombard by TKO. Winner: Lombard

Alan: Like everyone else, I’m picking Lombard to win. But I love the line on Boetsch. Lombard hasn’t faced anyone near this caliber and this is his first UFC appearance. If I’m betting this fight, I’m going with Boetsch and hoping for the upset. He’s an underdog but not a +320 underdog. This is a perfect low risk high reward type of betting situation. Winner: Lombard

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lombard (3-0)

UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.

UFC 149 Fight Card: Should Brian Ebersole Be Fighting Twice in Under a Month?

After earning his 50th career mixed martial arts victory, one would think that journeyman welterweight Brian Ebersole would enjoy some time away from the Octagon.Instead of resting on his laurels, the 31-year-old MMA vet will look to have his hand rais…

After earning his 50th career mixed martial arts victory, one would think that journeyman welterweight Brian Ebersole would enjoy some time away from the Octagon.

Instead of resting on his laurels, the 31-year-old MMA vet will look to have his hand raised for the second time in less than a month as Ebersole prepares to take on James Head at this weekend’s UFC 149.

Most fighters Ebersole’s age would steer clear of fighting in back-to-back bouts will little time to rest and recover, especially considering that his last fight was a three-round affair against a budding young prospect in TJ Waldburger. But much like Ebersole’s unorthodox fighting style, the self-proclaimed “Bad Boy” doesn’t like to play by the rules.

Ebersole isn’t like the other 30-somethings in the sport.

Instead of teetering with a gatekeeper status or slowly sinking into retirement fighting on the regional scene, Ebersole is seriously making a run at something special while in the UFC. His unorthodox striking style and humorous nature have transformed Ebersole into a very endearing and intriguing figure.

Despite this, he will have to fight to keep his name in the spotlight. Any opportunity to get back in the cage will aid Ebersole in climbing the divisional ladder, so booking a pay-per-view card bout on short notice is a virtual must.

Let’s face it, nobody expected Ebersole to continue his winning ways when he joined the UFC. But his four straight wins since joining the promotion and his entertaining style have made him into a dangerous veteran in the welterweight division.

A perennial underdog, Ebersole has cartwheel kicked his way into legitimacy as an emerging threat, but will have to keep his streak going if he wants to become more than just a motivational storyline.

Head will be a difficult challenge, as the young welterweight owns big wins over the likes of Papey Abedi and Gerald Harris. However, his relative inexperience when compared to Ebersole’s resume will be a major advantage for the “Bad Boy.”

What Ebersole brings to the table that people shouldn’t discount is his ability to break the norm. Finally finding his footing at a point in his career where most others are in the middle of or past their prime, Ebersole has made a career out of taking the tougher path.

Head’s going to be a hard guy to beat, but Ebersole wouldn’t have it any other way.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 149 Fight Card: Brian Ebersole Will Get Second Win in 30 Days vs. James Head

Brian Ebersole has the opportunity to accomplish a rare feat in today’s UFC landscape—with a win over James Head at UFC 149, Ebersole would have two wins within the span of 30 days.Ebersole was victorious in a UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida bout wi…

Brian Ebersole has the opportunity to accomplish a rare feat in today’s UFC landscape—with a win over James Head at UFC 149, Ebersole would have two wins within the span of 30 days.

Ebersole was victorious in a UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida bout with TJ Waldburger by unanimous decision on June 22, and felt good enough to step in for the July 21 UFC 149 card for an injured Claude Patrick to take on Head.

While many fighters would shirk the idea of such a quick turnaround, Ebersole is the kind of fighter that embraces the short layoff and will use the opportunity to gain even more momentum. Despite the shortened preparation period, Ebersole is heavily favored to come out on top.

How do we know that Ebersole can win two fights within a month’s time?

He’s been there before.

In 2011, Ebersole won a fight against Hamish Robertson on January 29 outside of the UFC before turning around less than 30 days later to pick up a UFC victory over highly respected Chris Lytle on February 27. While Ebersole’s competition may be a bit stiffer with back-to-back UFC fights, Ebersole should be up to the challenge.

Ebersole may be the most underrated fighter in the UFC. With a record of 50-14, it’s easy to look at Ebersole as a journeyman who doesn’t pose a serious threat.

However, Ebersole’s stock has never been higher in his career.

He finds himself in the midst of a four-fight win streak in the UFC and an 11-fight win streak since his last loss in 2008. His last loss? A submission loss to Hector Lombard—a fighter many expect to be the next challenger to Anderson Silva‘s title.

Ebersole has been playing the role of gatekeeper effectively since coming to the UFC in 2011, and Head should join the list of opponents that Ebersole has bested. With 14 wins by knockout and 20 wins by submission, Ebersole can finish the fight anywhere and has much more experience than Head, who is entering his third UFC fight with an 8-2 record.

With recent wins over TJ Waldburger, Claude Patrick, Dennis Hallman and Chris Lytle, Ebersole is more than deserving of a marquee matchup with a big-name opponent in the welterweight division.

Perhaps taking out two talented welterweight prospects within 30 days of each other will be enough to launch Ebersole into the top-ten welterweight discussion.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

And Today’s UFC 149 Injury Victim Is…Claude Patrick

(From L-R: Claude Patrick, political kiss of death Dana White, Brian Ebersole)

Is this kind of thing even newsworthy anymore? The UFC 149 injury curse has gone from eerie to apocalyptic to as dependable as the rising sun. The latest victim: Canadian welterweight Claude Patrick, who has pulled out of his bout with James Head due to an undisclosed injury. Patrick will be replaced on less than three weeks’ notice by chest-hair artist Brian Ebersole, who just increased his UFC record to 4-0 with a decision win over TJ Waldburger at UFC on FX: Maynard vs. Guida last month. Coincidentally, Ebersole also holds a win over Claude Patrick, in a split-decision at UFC 140.

The latest withdrawal pushes UFC 149’s injury body-count to nine: Yoshihiro Akiyama, Thiago Silva, Thiago Alves, Michael Bisping, Jose Aldo, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, George Roop, Siyar Bahadurzada, and now Claude Patrick. If you include fighters who were moved off the card when their opponents came down with injuries (Mauricio Rua, Erik Koch), we’ve entered double-digit territory in terms of lineup changes. To paraphrase Tom Wright, the UFC’s director of operations for Canada, shit happens.

UFC 149 goes down July 21st at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary. Urijah Faber vs. Renano Barao is still the headliner, and Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch is still the co-main event. We’ll let you know as soon as that changes.

(From L-R: Claude Patrick, political kiss of death Dana White, Brian Ebersole)

The latest withdrawal pushes UFC 149′s injury body-count to nine: Yoshihiro Akiyama, Thiago Silva, Thiago Alves, Michael Bisping, Jose Aldo, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, George Roop, Siyar Bahadurzada, and now Claude Patrick. If you include fighters who were moved off the card when their opponents came down with injuries (Mauricio Rua, Erik Koch), we’ve entered double-digit territory in terms of lineup changes. To paraphrase Tom Wright, the UFC’s director of operations for Canada, shit happens.