Tag: Caged In

Furor About Robbie Lawler’s Win over Carlos Condit Shows Rift in How We Watch

At least the oddsmakers had this one dialed.
Leading up to Robbie Lawler’s welterweight title defense against Carlos Condit on Saturday at UFC 195, we were told the fight was too close to call.
Nearly every website that offered a betting line sho…

At least the oddsmakers had this one dialed.

Leading up to Robbie Lawler’s welterweight title defense against Carlos Condit on Saturday at UFC 195, we were told the fight was too close to call.

Nearly every website that offered a betting line showed Lawler and Condit in a dead heat. Odds Shark’s Justin Hartling, for example, made the bout a pick ’em in his pre-fight odds and predictions piece, with both men going off at matching minus-115 numbers—and so it was, almost entirely across the board.

This obviously spoke to the incredibly competitive nature of the matchup and the parity at large in the 170-pound division right now.

The point was: We hoped to get some definitive answers from the fight itself.

Unfortunately, that didn’t happen.

It’s possible the outcome only made things murkier.

In the aftermath of Lawler’s split-decision victory, there has been considerable furor over the judges’ verdict and what the UFC should do next. There have been calls to overhaul MMA’s scoring system and renewed cries to do something—anything—about these unreliable ringside officials, who so often appear to watch a different fight than the rest of us.

This time it wasn’t only the judges who appeared conflicted, though. A good many spectators took diametrically opposite views of this bout. The action was so good and so close that almost any opinion was viable.

In the end, perhaps whom we thought won revealed a rift in how some of us watch this crazy sport.

Both Lawler and Condit put on masterclasses in what they do. Their performances may have been starkly different, but they were both stellar.

Condit attempted to overwhelm the champion with volume. His output and diversity of strikes over five rounds was incredible. He said at the post-fight press conference that his game plan was to keep Lawler at bay with kicks and his lengthy jab, disrupting the champ’s rhythm and preventing him from getting into range for his powerful punches.

For the most part, it worked. If this was a football game, Condit would’ve dominated the time of possession, but Lawler was too good to allow the challenger to make it a blowout.

“I think part of the plan went well,” Condit said at the presser. “I think my distancing was good. I was able to make him miss a lot of his big shots, and I was able to catch some of mine. [But] he had his moments where he was able to get into the range that he’s super-dangerous at, that boxing range, and throw those devastating hooks.”

The champion’s offense came in spurts. While Condit chipped away at him more or less nonstop, Lawler engaged in sporadic bursts of violence. For stretches of the fight he would go dormant—credit Condit’s effectiveness for that—but when Lawler saw his openings or sensed some urgency he came forward with sudden flurries of powerful punches. Each time he did, he appeared to hurt his opponent.

We know all about the insane statistics Condit amassed. He threw nearly 500 significant strikes in this fight, according to FightMetric.com. He out-landed Lawler nearly 2-to-1 (176-92) in that department, crafting a historically lopsided differential in a fight in which the guy on the short end of the stick ended up winning.

But Lawler’s punches were harder; they seemed to hurt more. A whopping 89 percent of his significant strikes went to the head, while 80 of Condit’s total strikes landed to either the body or to the legs. In the second round, Lawler floored him with a right hook—the most memorable strike of the fight.

Moreover, each time Lawler went on the attack he wreaked the sort of havoc and caused the kind of damage that historically makes an impression with the judges. When the verdict was announced, we learned that his gambit was successful with two of them.

The rest of us were on our own. Absent any standardized system to value all these disparate techniques and opposing styles, we were left to our own devices.

And maybe our own biases.

If you watched this fight in a more analytical mode, you likely thought Condit won, and you certainly had the numbers to back up that position. Perhaps his work rate spoke to you. Maybe the diversity of his attack seemed like the more well-rounded, more effective performance of mixed martial arts. Perhaps he made Lawler look sluggish and inactive by comparison.

If you watched this fight with your heart on your sleeve and an old-school eye toward damage and violence, Lawler was clearly your guy. He came the closest to finishing the bout, and in the instances in which he hit his highest gear—especially when he was able to trap Condit near the fence—he appeared to instantly swing the momentum in his favor.

That included the vitally important final round, in which Lawler mustered the endurance and drive to come out guns blazing and salt away his second successful title defense. 

“He’s our Evander Holyfield, man,” UFC President Dana White said of Lawler at the post-fight media conference. “He’s never in a boring fight. When he gets hurt, he continues to go toe-to-toe. I respect so much when you’re in a fight like this and you have to come out in the fifth round and do what Robbie did—and he did it.”

At the risk of oversimplifying, maybe it came down to this: If you watched this fight with your head, you likely thought Condit won.

If you watched with your gut, Lawler got your nod.

Neither approach is explicitly right or wrong. After all (at least for the spectators), this is supposed to be fun. Watch the fights any way you see fit. It stands to reason that in a sport as nuanced and sometimes wacky as MMA, there’s always going to be a wealth of divergent opinions swirling around big fights.

Statistics are nice, and the people who compile them do impressive yeoman’s work. In a modern athletic culture becoming more and more reliant on analytics, it seems important that MMA tries to keep up, devising some hard and fast way to quantify and evaluate performances.

Yet at this point, the numbers frequently don’t tell the whole story. Not every punch or kick is created equal.

MMA remains a sport that deserves—sometimes demands—to be watched with as much emotion as reason. It’s a sport that still demands to actually be watched. Often your eyes will tell you things about a fight that the numbers will not.

Or at least that’s what Lawler’s supporters would probably argue this week.

As the dust settles, the one area that leaves absolutely no wiggle room is that he’s still the champ. The way forward for the 170-pound division is somewhat less clear-cut, though in the spirit he’s exhibited since coming to the Octagon as a precocious 20-year-old in 2002, Lawler has made it clear he’s down for whatever.

Meanwhile, Condit says he’s considering retirement. He came razor-close to capturing the undisputed UFC title but—at least on the official scorecards—came up just short. In the hours immediately following that disappointment, he indicated he will require some soul-searching before he knows if he can go on.

The smart money says that no matter what happens, controversy will continue to swirl around these guys for a little while. From the sidelines, we’ll have all the same discussions we always have after close fights and hinky decisions. We’ll propose rule changes, whole-cloth scoring alterations and continuing education classes for judges.

It’s true that the system could certainly be improved, though there is no potential change to the rulebook that will eliminate close fights.

It also seems unlikely that there will be a change that prevents some of us from seeing exactly what we want to see.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 195 Results: Book Lawler & Condit an Immediate Rematch Before It’s Too Late

We were left with two questions on Saturday after Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit completed their epic welterweight title fight at UFC 195—one of them hard and one of them easy.
The most difficult and most immediate question was, who the heck won…

We were left with two questions on Saturday after Robbie Lawler and Carlos Condit completed their epic welterweight title fight at UFC 195—one of them hard and one of them easy.

The most difficult and most immediate question was, who the heck won?

We’re probably going to be arguing about the outcome of this bout for a while.

When the dust settled after 25 minutes—and arguably one of the greatest final rounds of all time—three ringside judges at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas allowed Lawler to retain his championship via split decision (47-48, 48-47 x 2).

Meanwhile, most spectators on social media appeared to think Condit should’ve gotten the nod. Fifteen of the 20 media analysts who scored the fight at MMADecisions.com also had it for the challenger. UFC President Dana White came to the postfight press conference and said he did too.

Among the listed media scorecards, only three observers favored Lawler (27-10-1 overall; 12-4 UFC) in the bout. Two opted to make it a draw.

But despite that disparity, there was no robbery here. This fight was so good and so close all positions are equally viable. In other words: It’s a quandary and leaves no clearcut way forward for Lawler and his welterweight title.

Luckily, the second, far simpler question provides a highly effective remedy.

That question is, “What do we do now?” and the obvious answer is: Book an immediate rematch between Lawler and Condit before it’s too late.

In the wake of this loss, Condit (30-9 overall; 7-5 UFC) is openly talking about retirement.

These sorts of declarations are common in the immediate aftermath of physically and emotionally grueling defeats. But the 31-year-old veteran—who is already the former UFC interim and former WEC champion—is the sort of guy who might not simply be blowing smoke when he says this time he left it all in the Octagon.

“I’ve been at this for a long time—over 40 professional MMA and kickboxing fights,” Condit said at the postfight press conference. “Tonight was kind of a do-or-die moment for my career, and I was all in. If I got that strap, I was going to keep fighting, and if I didn’t, like I didn’t, I have to see if I can continue to do this.”

By now, this fight’s numbers are well-known. Condit threw nearly 500 significant strikes during the five-round affair and out-landed Lawler 176-92 in that department, according to Fight Metric—the UFC’s official statistics service.

Condit’s significant strikes landed are the second-most all time in a UFC title fight, according to Fight Metic’s Michael Carroll. Lawler’s minus-84 differential is the worst ever for a decision winner, Carroll posted to social media.

Condit out-struck Lawler in every round, though Lawler stormed back to make things much closer in the definitive final stanza. Condit’s sheer volume and his ability to control range with his kicks were impressive. Yet, Lawler appeared to stun him with hard shots on several occasions, including dropping Condit to the canvas with the fight’s single-most powerful punch (a right hook) in the second round.

In the end, who you tabbed to win this bout likely came down to a discussion of whether Condit’s work rate outdid Lawler’s power. The answer may reveal a philosophical rift in the bedrock of the sport—one that isn’t easily explained away and where the opposing sides aren’t likely to meet in the middle.

MMA is not strictly a numbers game, after all. The sport is too dynamic and too diverse for that. Nobody wants to get to the point where winners are determined simply by adding up the number of punches and kicks. In this instance, Condit’s areas of expertise were on full display—and they may well have been good enough—but so too were Lawler’s heart and fearsome heavy hands.

There are likely deeper discussions to be had here, too. MMA’s 10-point must system continues to be a fairly blunt instrument for scoring such a nuanced athletic contest. It may be time to start looking into alternative systems, as well as the specific methods by which all these techniques are being scored and by whom.

For now, though, we’re left with a puzzle with only one solution: Let’s do it again, brother. Let’s do it again.

White was characteristically reticent to plot out a hair-trigger next step on fight night. He and the rest of the UFC brass no doubt want to go back to the office, survey the options and crunch the financials. It’ll be some time yet before we find out the immediate future of the 170-pound title.

“We don’t make the fights tonight,” White said at the presser. “The fight was awesome…and I had it 3-2 for Condit. It was an amazing fight, congrats to both guys. We’ll see. We’ll see how this thing plays out and what happens.”

And look, much like reforms to the scoring system itself, immediate rematches are the sort of thing we all want to be careful with. Nobody wants the UFC title picture to devolve into an endless series of do-overs. We’re already getting a heavyweight rematch at UFC 196 next month and recently deposed champs like Jon Jones and Ronda Rousey are likely to get second cracks to regain the gold during 2016.

As a general rule of thumb, the UFC should move to keep things moving, to keep thing fresh. In this instance, however, an exception should be made.

The welterweight division is among the sport’s most competitive right now, but it’s not as though there are a wealth of better options banging on Lawler’s door.

Rory MacDonald remains the division’s No. 1-ranked contender, but he just lost to Lawler (in another thrilling bout) at UFC 189 last July. It was MacDonald’s second career defeat to Lawler, and without significant upheaval at the top, he’ll need another win or two to rehabilitate himself into a viable title challenger.

No. 2 Tyron Woodley is the cut-and-dried next choice, and from a purely competition-based standpoint, he certainly deserves it. But Woodley isn’t much of a proven draw and—though he beat Condit in March 2014—his two most recent victories (over Dong Hyun Kim and Kelvin Gastelum) don’t exactly make him a slam dunk.

On top of that, Woodley has never seemed like the UFC’s favorite. In June 2014, White went on record saying he believes Woodley “chokes in big fights,” via MMAFighting.com’s Dave Doyle. That’s a harsh indictment of a fighter who remains 15-3 overall, but it could matter when the UFC sits down to decide its next move.

Former champion Johny Hendricks (No. 3) is the only other man ranked above Condit right now. He split his first two meetings with Lawler in a pair of exciting fights at UFCs 171 and 181, but he too seems to have fallen from the fight company’s favor recently.

Hendricks was forced to pull out of a scheduled bout against Woodley at the last minute in October 2015 after complications during his weight cut. His next fight will be against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson at UFC 196 and doesn’t shape up as the bout he needs to tee him up for another title opportunity.

If the UFC takes a sober (and fiscally mindful) look around the welterweight division, it seems likely that Condit-Lawler II will come out smelling like a rose.

If Condit is serious about walking away from the sport, it also adds a fair amount of urgency.

While immediate rematches aren’t always the ticket, this one is. Let’s get it done, before we lose the chance forever, and we’re left with more questions we can never answer.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC Bold Predictions for 2016: What Fates Await Rousey, McGregor, Jones & More?

2015 was unpredictable.
Literally.
So many unexpected things happened this year in the UFC, there was simply no way to predict it all—though, in fairness, we came pretty close. With a bevy of new champions and new gala events on the horizon, 2016…

2015 was unpredictable.

Literally.

So many unexpected things happened this year in the UFC, there was simply no way to predict it all—though, in fairness, we came pretty close. With a bevy of new champions and new gala events on the horizon, 2016 is shaping up as a pretty wild one, too.

Will Ronda Rousey return? Will Jon Jones reclaim his light heavyweight title? Will Bellator MMA land big-time free agents like Benson Henderson and Alistair Overeem? Can Conor McGregor come anywhere close to repeating (or exceeding) his landmark 2015?

Only two ways to find out.

Either stick around the MMA world for one more year or read on in this article, as Bleacher Report’s staff of combat sports writers pitch in to make their own bold predictions for the New Year.  

 

Begin Slideshow

UFC in 2015: A Rough Year for MMA’s Most Dominant Champions

It was a bad time to be the best.
As the dust settles on a wild, comeback year for the UFC, one of the things we can say for sure is that the Octagon’s most dominant champions were among the sport’s biggest losers in 2015.
Saturday’s …

It was a bad time to be the best.

As the dust settles on a wild, comeback year for the UFC, one of the things we can say for sure is that the Octagon’s most dominant champions were among the sport’s biggest losers in 2015.

Saturday’s UFC on Fox 17 was event No. 41 for the fight company this calendar turn, and Rafael dos Anjos should consider himself lucky to jerk the curtain closed with a successful title defense against Donald Cerrone.

Many UFC champions didn’t fare quite as well. Turnover at the top was swift and unforgiving. In all, seven new titlists were crowned during 2015—at the expense of a few we thought might never relinquish the gold.

Ronda Rousey lost.

Jose Aldo lost.

Jon Jones found himself forcibly deposed, and he spent the bulk of the year on suspension for conduct unbecoming of the GOAT.

Anybody who claims they saw even half this stuff coming is either magic, the sharpest sharp on the planet or an out-and-out liar.

 

Ironically enough, the year began with a definitive confirmation of the status quo when Jones turned back the challenge of Daniel Cormier at UFC 182 on January 3.

Cormier was expected to be the biggest threat yet to the 28-year-old New Yorker’s unparalleled reign over the light heavyweight division. When Jones leapt past him via a clear-cut unanimous decision during the UFC’s first event of 2015, it was seen as a sign the champion would stay on his throne as long as he wanted.

As it turned out, the biggest threat to Jones’ dominance was Jones himself.

In February we learned he’d tested positive for cocaine during the lead-up to the Cormier bout. In April, the UFC stripped him of the title and put him on indefinite suspension in the wake of a hit-and-run accident in his adoptive hometown of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

By May, the promotion had put the No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter in the world in its rearview—at least temporarily—as Cormier topped Anthony Johnson at UFC 187 to become the first new 205-pound champion since 2011.

We didn’t know it at the time, but the die was cast for the rest of the year.

The only meaningful mantra would be to expect the unexpected.

And maybe think twice before taking your slam-dunk parlay to the betting window.

 

If Cormier spoiled our predictions of who would finish the year as UFC champs, Holly Holm took a freaking jackhammer to everything we thought we knew at UFC 193 on November 15.

Holm may as well have shredded the UFC’s playbook going forward—and most of its financial projections too—when she knocked out Ronda Rousey in the second round of their fight in Melbourne, Australia.

Up until the moment she crashed face-first onto the canvas, Rousey had been both the company’s biggest star and its most untouchable champion. In an instant, Holm transformed her into a figure (apparently) deserving of Internet scorn. The memes flowed like wine, and TMZ shot video of Rousey slumping through an airport with a pillow pressed over her bruised face.

Talk surrounding Rousey went from whether she would retire undefeated at a young age to speculation about whether she has a prayer of beating Holm in the obligatory immediate rematch. It was a sobering lesson in the fickle nature of MMA fame as well as the fragility of best-laid plans.

 

Luckily for the UFC, Conor McGregor was able to ensure that at least one of the company’s cash cows kept its place in the barnyard.

Aldo was the longest reigning champion on the organization’s roster when McGregor felled him in just 13 seconds at UFC 194 on December 12. It was the final surprise in a year full of them.

The two had originally been scheduled to meet at UFC 189 in July before Aldo pulled out with a rib injury. McGregor showed up and became interim featherweight champion when he defeated Chad Mendes by second-round TKO.

When they finally got together in Las Vegas in the UFC’s final pay-per-view event of the year, it was supposed to be an epic battle. Instead, McGregor made short, easy work of the only 145-pound champion the Octagon had ever known.

In the process, he backed up the trash talk he’d been spewing since arriving in the Octagon in 2013. His rise has been historically meteoric, and with Rousey out licking her wounds, McGregor becomes the UFC’s biggest star now almost by default.

You get the impression that much of the promotion’s success or failure during 2016 will rest on the Irishman’s shoulders. He’s already announced his intentions to add the lightweight title to his personal treasure trove. He also could have big-money bouts with Frankie Edgar or Nate Diaz (or nearly anyone else on the roster) if he so desired.

 

At the same event where McGregor thwarted Aldo, Luke Rockhold took the middleweight title from Chris Weidman via fourth-round TKO. Weidman had not yet ascended to the same lofty status as the UFC’s other longstanding dominant champions, but he certainly had that potential.

He shocked the world when he wrested the title away from Anderson Silva at UFC 162 in July 2013. He’d breezed through nine previous fights in the Octagon and came into his bout with Rockhold 13-0 overall.

Unfortunately, Rockhold was too much for him. After an ill-advised spinning kick landed Weidman on his back midway through the bout, Rockhold took control. He battered the champion with heavy strikes on the ground until the referee mercifully stepped in to stop things three minutes, 12 seconds into the championship rounds

 

Those two divisional sea changes capped a year in which Dos Anjos also dethroned Anthony Pettis to claim the 155-pound crown, Joanna Jędrzejczyk stopped Carla Esparza to become the second women’s strawweight champ in organizational history (both at UFC 185) and Fabricio Werdum surprised Cain Velasquez at UFC 188.

It amounted to an awful lot of unexpected upheaval in a year that otherwise turned out to be a very good one for the UFC at the box office.

Now we await 2016, to see if the pendulum might swing back in the other direction.

We already know that Rousey, Jones and Velasquez will likely get immediate chances to get their titles back.

Velasquez gets his opportunity to become heavyweight champion for the third time when he rematches with Werdum on February 6 at UFC 196. 

A do-over between Rousey and Holm is widely speculated to be in the plans for the gala UFC 200 event scheduled for next July. It might even double up with McGregor’s next fight and therefore surely break all previous UFC PPV buyrate records.

Jones will get a crack at regaining the light heavyweight belt he never really lost, and he dropped hints on his Instagram account that a rematch with Cormier might be targeted for April 23. A lot of observers are already chalking that up as another win for the former champion.

It seems that 2015 will be remembered as one of the most surprising and volatile years on record for the UFC.

As we voyage into the new year, it also stands as a reminder to the fight company’s roster full of fledgling champions:

Don’t get too comfortable.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on Fox 17: Did Rafael Dos Anjos KO Himself from Conor McGregor’s Wish List?

Maybe Rafael dos Anjos never really had a chance to land a fight with Conor McGregor, but it’s a good bet Saturday night’s performance didn’t help his cause.
Dos Anjos’ first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone in the main event of UFC o…

Maybe Rafael dos Anjos never really had a chance to land a fight with Conor McGregor, but it’s a good bet Saturday night’s performance didn’t help his cause.

Dos Anjos’ first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone in the main event of UFC on Fox 17 was certainly eye-opening. It may turn out to be the defining victory of his lightweight title reign and firmly establish him as a worthy kingpin for MMA’s most competitive division.

But it also made Dos Anjos (14-5 UFC, 25-7 overall) look like perhaps the toughest fight on the board for McGregor right now. As the man who also offers the lowest possible return, the math probably just won’t add up for him.

With McGregor‘s superstar status now well entrenched, the new featherweight champion will be on the prowl for big names and big money when he selects his next fight.

A high-risk, low reward bout against Dos Anjos? After watching him tear through Cerrone, that seems more imprudent than ever. The numbers—and the strategy—will likely dictate that McGregor (7-0, 19-2) sticks with higher-profile and arguably less dangerous guys like Frankie Edgar or Nate Diaz.

That didn’t stop the 31-year-old Brazilian from trying to cash in on the McGregor sweepstakes, naturally. Just like almost every other fighter under 170 pounds who got a win at UFC on Fox 17, Dos Anjos had a message for The Notorious One.

“Conor McGregor,” Dos Anjos said during his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan inside the cage, “if you want to come to the lightweight division, know that this is my division. You should stay at featherweight. I will fight you in Brazil. I will go to Ireland to face you. I’m here to stay.”

Considering how relatively quiet Dos Anjos had been since winning the UFC title in March, it was a pretty significant outburst. In the wake of it, McGregor made it clear he’s reveling in his new status as the UFC’s most wanted man:

McGregor coach John Kavanagh also appeared pleased with the options presented to his fighter after the UFC’s latest live fight card on network television:

But it was probably wishful thinking for Dos Anjos to believe he could ever tempt McGregor.

Edgar (14-4-1, 20-4-1) continues to campaign for that fight at 145 pounds. Following a win over Michael Johnson this weekend, Diaz (13-8, 18-10) launched into a profane rant designed to bait McGregor into a bout at lightweight. Had Cerrone pulled off the victory, he was considered a slam dunk to land the UFC equivalent of a lottery ticket.

For what it’s worth, Diaz told MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani after the post-fight press conference that matchmaker Joe Silva informed him the McGregor fight is “on.”

So, we’ll see what develops.

By contrast, though, Dos Anjos was always considered a dark-horse candidate. Considering the lightweight champ now looks more dangerous than ever, conventional wisdom says McGregor won’t want to risk putting his enormous political capital within the UFC on the line for such a risky bout. Instead, he’ll likely chase bigger paydays and the bigger headlines.

Dos Anjos came into this fight a bit more than a 2-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark. Still, most of the pre-fight hype swirled around Cerrone (15-4, 28-7-1)—a popular fighter who was finally getting his chance at the gold after five years and 18 fights in the UFC.

The Cowboy was considered a perfect fit for McGregor. The two bombastic figures could have made beautiful promotional music together leading up to a mega card in Ireland’s enormous Croke Park early in 2016 or even at UFC 200, which is planned for next July and expected to be the biggest event the fight company has ever put on.

But then Dos Anjos slammed the door on Cerrone’s bid.

The champion landed a straight left during the opening moments of the fight that snapped Cerrone’s head back and set the tone for the next minute, six seconds. When that first punch landed, it was as if you could hear UFC fans all over the country shifting nervously in their seats and saying “uh-oh.”

A notoriously slow starter, Cerrone never really got things going. Roughly 30 seconds after the opening exchange, Dos Anjos landed the left body kick that signaled the beginning of the end for the likable Colorado native. The champion followed it up with a crushing straight left and poured on the punches as Cerrone covered up against the fence.

Moments later, the challenger was turtled up in the center of the cage, accepting so many shots that Dos Anjos had to look at referee Herb Dean to ask him if he might consider stopping the fight. Dean eventually obliged him.

“I didn’t show up to work,” Cerrone said later, in the UFC’s official post-fight press release. “Couldn’t find my gear. He showed up, and I didn’t. He did a good job.”

So good, in fact, that it might make the people in charge of selecting McGregor’s next fight think twice—unless, of course, winning the lightweight title is truly tops on his list of priorities.

More likely, we now see McGregor meet either Diaz or Edgar. His camp said last week he was considering a lightweight title fight in April and then Edgar in July. It remains to be seen if this weekend’s action was enough for him to reorder his list of objectives.

For Dos Anjos, perhaps the most likely next foe is Tony Ferguson (10-1, 20-3). He scored an impressive and crowd-pleasing victory over Edson Barboza last week at The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 Finale. It extended his seven-fight win streak and could put Ferguson in the catbird seat as the 155-pound division awaits the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov beat Dos Anjos via unanimous decision in April 2014 and remains undefeated at a stunning 22-0 (6-0 UFC). He hasn’t fought since the Dos Anjos win, owing to a laundry list of injuries, but he’ll remain near the front of the contender line if and when he makes it back to action.

Former UFC champion Anthony Pettis (5-2, 18-3) and former Bellator titlist Eddie Alvarez (1-1, 26-4) are also scheduled to meet on January 17. The winner of that bout will have a good chance to be next up for Dos Anjos.

Assuming, of course, it’s not McGregor. The Irishman will continue to call his own shots so long as he remains the UFC’s biggest draw. And right now it seems like he’d have too much to lose to put himself in a fight against Dos Anjos.

Even if the lightweight title was on the line.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC on Fox 17: Did Rafael Dos Anjos KO Himself from Conor McGregor’s Wish List?

Maybe Rafael dos Anjos never really had a chance to land a fight with Conor McGregor, but it’s a good bet Saturday night’s performance didn’t help his cause.
Dos Anjos’ first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone in the main event of UFC o…

Maybe Rafael dos Anjos never really had a chance to land a fight with Conor McGregor, but it’s a good bet Saturday night’s performance didn’t help his cause.

Dos Anjos’ first-round knockout of Donald Cerrone in the main event of UFC on Fox 17 was certainly eye-opening. It may turn out to be the defining victory of his lightweight title reign and firmly establish him as a worthy kingpin for MMA’s most competitive division.

But it also made Dos Anjos (14-5 UFC, 25-7 overall) look like perhaps the toughest fight on the board for McGregor right now. As the man who also offers the lowest possible return, the math probably just won’t add up for him.

With McGregor‘s superstar status now well entrenched, the new featherweight champion will be on the prowl for big names and big money when he selects his next fight.

A high-risk, low reward bout against Dos Anjos? After watching him tear through Cerrone, that seems more imprudent than ever. The numbers—and the strategy—will likely dictate that McGregor (7-0, 19-2) sticks with higher-profile and arguably less dangerous guys like Frankie Edgar or Nate Diaz.

That didn’t stop the 31-year-old Brazilian from trying to cash in on the McGregor sweepstakes, naturally. Just like almost every other fighter under 170 pounds who got a win at UFC on Fox 17, Dos Anjos had a message for The Notorious One.

“Conor McGregor,” Dos Anjos said during his post-fight interview with Joe Rogan inside the cage, “if you want to come to the lightweight division, know that this is my division. You should stay at featherweight. I will fight you in Brazil. I will go to Ireland to face you. I’m here to stay.”

Considering how relatively quiet Dos Anjos had been since winning the UFC title in March, it was a pretty significant outburst. In the wake of it, McGregor made it clear he’s reveling in his new status as the UFC’s most wanted man:

McGregor coach John Kavanagh also appeared pleased with the options presented to his fighter after the UFC’s latest live fight card on network television:

But it was probably wishful thinking for Dos Anjos to believe he could ever tempt McGregor.

Edgar (14-4-1, 20-4-1) continues to campaign for that fight at 145 pounds. Following a win over Michael Johnson this weekend, Diaz (13-8, 18-10) launched into a profane rant designed to bait McGregor into a bout at lightweight. Had Cerrone pulled off the victory, he was considered a slam dunk to land the UFC equivalent of a lottery ticket.

For what it’s worth, Diaz told MMAFighting.com’s Ariel Helwani after the post-fight press conference that matchmaker Joe Silva informed him the McGregor fight is “on.”

So, we’ll see what develops.

By contrast, though, Dos Anjos was always considered a dark-horse candidate. Considering the lightweight champ now looks more dangerous than ever, conventional wisdom says McGregor won’t want to risk putting his enormous political capital within the UFC on the line for such a risky bout. Instead, he’ll likely chase bigger paydays and the bigger headlines.

Dos Anjos came into this fight a bit more than a 2-1 favorite, according to Odds Shark. Still, most of the pre-fight hype swirled around Cerrone (15-4, 28-7-1)—a popular fighter who was finally getting his chance at the gold after five years and 18 fights in the UFC.

The Cowboy was considered a perfect fit for McGregor. The two bombastic figures could have made beautiful promotional music together leading up to a mega card in Ireland’s enormous Croke Park early in 2016 or even at UFC 200, which is planned for next July and expected to be the biggest event the fight company has ever put on.

But then Dos Anjos slammed the door on Cerrone’s bid.

The champion landed a straight left during the opening moments of the fight that snapped Cerrone’s head back and set the tone for the next minute, six seconds. When that first punch landed, it was as if you could hear UFC fans all over the country shifting nervously in their seats and saying “uh-oh.”

A notoriously slow starter, Cerrone never really got things going. Roughly 30 seconds after the opening exchange, Dos Anjos landed the left body kick that signaled the beginning of the end for the likable Colorado native. The champion followed it up with a crushing straight left and poured on the punches as Cerrone covered up against the fence.

Moments later, the challenger was turtled up in the center of the cage, accepting so many shots that Dos Anjos had to look at referee Herb Dean to ask him if he might consider stopping the fight. Dean eventually obliged him.

“I didn’t show up to work,” Cerrone said later, in the UFC’s official post-fight press release. “Couldn’t find my gear. He showed up, and I didn’t. He did a good job.”

So good, in fact, that it might make the people in charge of selecting McGregor’s next fight think twice—unless, of course, winning the lightweight title is truly tops on his list of priorities.

More likely, we now see McGregor meet either Diaz or Edgar. His camp said last week he was considering a lightweight title fight in April and then Edgar in July. It remains to be seen if this weekend’s action was enough for him to reorder his list of objectives.

For Dos Anjos, perhaps the most likely next foe is Tony Ferguson (10-1, 20-3). He scored an impressive and crowd-pleasing victory over Edson Barboza last week at The Ultimate Fighter Season 22 Finale. It extended his seven-fight win streak and could put Ferguson in the catbird seat as the 155-pound division awaits the return of Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov beat Dos Anjos via unanimous decision in April 2014 and remains undefeated at a stunning 22-0 (6-0 UFC). He hasn’t fought since the Dos Anjos win, owing to a laundry list of injuries, but he’ll remain near the front of the contender line if and when he makes it back to action.

Former UFC champion Anthony Pettis (5-2, 18-3) and former Bellator titlist Eddie Alvarez (1-1, 26-4) are also scheduled to meet on January 17. The winner of that bout will have a good chance to be next up for Dos Anjos.

Assuming, of course, it’s not McGregor. The Irishman will continue to call his own shots so long as he remains the UFC’s biggest draw. And right now it seems like he’d have too much to lose to put himself in a fight against Dos Anjos.

Even if the lightweight title was on the line.

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