Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen
I’ll admit it. I’m buying into the one sided hype. Sonnen destroyed Marquardt when Marquardt was running high. He made Okami look silly. Sonnen has the takedown prowess of Dan Henderson. Henderson took down Anderson Silva, ultimately losing by rear naked, but that is besides the point. This one is likely going to the judges cards and I think Sonnen is going to win on takedowns. Yes I think Anderson Silva loses this fight. His cardio has shown to have problems ever since Patrick Cote’s kneecap slipped out of place 4 or 5 fights ago. Sonnen doesn’t have that problem. The major thing Sonnen has to worry about is not the striking, but the submission game of Silva. Those lanky long legs are perfect for triangling and armbaring. Something Sonnen has had mixed trouble with in his past is against high quality jiu-jitsu players. Sonnen lost to Paulo Filho in a controversial ref stoppage in their first match and Filho ran from Sonnen for 3 rounds in the rematch. Demian Maia tapped Sonnen with a sweet triangle in their match. Anderson Silva has a jiu-jitsu game that is right up there with the best in the business and has the length and reach to cause more problems than most others.
Well after writing out my thoughts above, its really going to come down to one thing for Sonnen. Conditioning. Its probably the one advantage he has to utilize to beat Silva. The way to do it would be getting Silva against the cage and make him fight off takedowns for the 3 rounds. Then maybe Silva will be too burnt out to strike back with the fervor he is known for. A tired Silva also gives Sonnen the best shot at a ground and pound TKO.
When I look at this on paper, Silva should win. Too many tools that Sonnen has had a history of trouble against. However, nobody is invincible, and I think Sonnen is good at getting in fighters faces and pressuring Silva enough to have a great shot at winning a judge’s decision. The real item here is that Silva is too much a favorite in the odds that it makes a decent spot to take the underdog in Sonnen.
Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves
The fight is finally happening. Although Fitch has a shot at doing his usual grinder type style over Alves, I think Alves will win this fight. The reason Alves wins is that Fitch’s style is becoming predictable. Alves on the other hand has improved his standup to devastating levels. Another item is Alves takedown defense and getting back up off the mat has improved from a level of 0 to about a 7. Look at the difference between his UFC fight night fights against Spencer Fisher compared to his fights against Matt Hughes and Josh Koscheck.
I like Thiago Alves to win this fight.
Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida
If Matt Hughes beats Ricardo Almeida in this fight I will take a one UFC sabbatical from making picks. Renzo, Ricardo’s teacher, was made to look silly against Hughes. Renzo is older though and officially he showed how out of fight shape he was. Almeida on the other hand is a different breed and imo will give Matt Hughes some serious problems.
I like Almeida at all odds.
Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos
Whoever Clay Guida fights you can expect a great entertaining fight. I’m immediately discounting most of Dos Anjos submission capabilities due to several reasons. One Dos Anjos likes to stand up. Two Guida has tremendous submission defense. However, his style leads him into submissions quite often.
The stand up of Dos Anjos is pretty good and he has some really good leg kicks. If you were to guess who can do the most damage, its Dos Anjos. If you add up the takedowns Guida is going to get, vs the damage that Dos Anjos is going to do, and the escapes that Guida is likely to get, I think the odds are perfect here. Guida is slightly favored.
I’m looking Guida, but feeling Dos Anjos
Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos
We don’t know how good Junior Dos Santos ground game is, but I’m sure Roy Nelson wants the fight to go there. The last person Nelson met with similar high quality boxing capability was Andrei Arlovski before Nelson went on TUF. Arlovski beat Nelson badly earning a ref stoppage. IMO Dos Santos is a more powerful puncher than Arlovski and has incredible boxing skills for someone of his size. Nelson will have problems on his feet. However, and since I’m unfamiliar with Dos Santos ground ability, when the fight hits the floor Nelson’s belly is almost like a third arm. It is going to be EXTREMELY difficult to get up if Nelson gets on top of Dos Santos.
With the extra advantage of Nelson’s belly and his tremendous fighting experience being the IFL heavyweight champion and the TUF champion, I think Nelson’s body type will be a problem for Dos Santos.
I like Nelson to avoid the Dos Santos wrecking machine and take the win.
Ben Saunders vs Dennis Hallman
Two tall guys, Saunders with the good standup game when he lets his hands go. Hallman is the crafty submission specialist. I think Hallman (probably on his last fight of his contract) is most likely to get beat. That would be the intelligent way to look at it. However, Saunders has had some disappointing matchups imo. I’d rather go with Hallman and see the old dog teach the young dog a new trick.
Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story
Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace
Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown
Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman
Hendricks.
Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft
Struve.