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Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘Hardy vs. Lytle’ Edition

Full betting lines for this Sunday’s UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle event have been released, which means it’s time to steal some money from your old lady’s purse and tell her you’re going for a walk. And if you follow our gambling advice very carefully, you’ll be able to return the cash before she notices and earn some extra cigarette-money in the process. (Ed. note: You’ll probably lose everything like usual. Are things ever going to change with you, Jim?) Check out the juiciest lines, via bestfightodds.com:

Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even)
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145)
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273)

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222)
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225)
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145)
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201)
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313)
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335)
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288)

Let’s get that money…

The Main Event: Chris Lytle definitely deserves to be a slight favorite here; he’s dangerous from more positions than Dan Hardy, and supernaturally impervious to knockouts and submissions. I think the line would be wider if Lytle wasn’t coming off a lackluster performance against Brian Ebersole in February, but as we all know, the dude was nursing injuries and shouldn’t have taken the fight in the first place. Dan Hardy allegedly holds the striking advantage — but I’m not entirely convinced of that either. Straight money on Lights Out is a wise choice.

The Co-Main: There’s part of me that thinks Jim Miller is being disrespected (as usual) by only being a -145 favorite against Bendo. Henderson is incredibly talented and capable of brilliant performances, but this is Miller’s time. His last two stoppage wins against Charles Oliveira and Kamal Shalorus have demonstrated that his skills are developing with every fight. I see the Jersey Boy taking this one by decision and hitting lucky #8. Miller’s a safe bet.

The Good ‘Dog: I expected the Oliveira vs. Cerrone line to be closer to even. The rangy, experienced, well-rounded Cowboy is a legitimate test for the young Brazilian phenom, and his +130 line is attractive.

The New Guys: Never heard of Jimy Hettes, huh? Well after Sunday night, you’ll know him as “the guy who just knocked Bruce Leroy out of the UFC.” Hettes is a grappling savant who has tapped all eight of his opponents in regional east coast promotions. Despite his TUF 12 credentials, Caceres isn’t really a step up in competition; please don’t bet on him just because you’ve heard of him. As for the card’s other late-replacement newbie, Ronny Markes is a 23-year-old Brazilian prospect who scored a decision win over Paulo Filho in April — not that beating Paulo Filho means much anymore. Vemola is the favorite here because he kicked the dogshit out of Seth Petruzelli in his last fight, while Markes is something of an unknown quantity. My gut is telling me to stay away from this one altogether.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Lytle + Miller + Benavidez + Hettes + Figueroa. $20 returns $131.05 profit.

UFC on Versus 5 Predictions

Filed under: UFCThe UFC is back on Versus Sunday night with a five-fight televised card that will answer some big questions: Can Dan Hardy snap his losing streak and save his job in the UFC? Can Jim Miller prove that he’s worthy of a lightweight title …

Filed under: UFC

The UFC is back on Versus Sunday night with a five-fight televised card that will answer some big questions: Can Dan Hardy snap his losing streak and save his job in the UFC? Can Jim Miller prove that he’s worthy of a lightweight title shot? Can Charles Oliveira get back on track and show that he’s one of the sport’s most promising young fighters? We’ll weigh in with some answers below.

What: UFC Live on Versus 5: Hardy vs. Lytle

When: Sunday, the Facebook fights begin at 5:45 PM ET and the Versus fights start at 9.

Where: Milwaukee

Predictions on the four televised fights and the top two Facebook fights below.

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle
Hardly anything has gone right for Hardy in the nearly two years since he beat Mike Swick to earn a shot at the welterweight title. He was completely outclassed by Georges St. Pierre, knocked out by Carlos Condit and then controlled for 15 minutes by Anthony Johnson. Now Hardy says he’s shaking up his training and getting back into form, and he better be, if he wants to keep his spot on the UFC roster: Fighters rarely keep their jobs if they lose four in a row.

The good news for Hardy is that Lytle is liable to play right into his strengths and turn it into a slugfest. The 36-year-old Lytle is always exciting, but he has looked like he’s slowing down in his last couple fights, and Hardy should be able to out-slug him and win what should be an entertaining fight.
Pick: Hardy

Jim Miller vs. Ben Henderson
Although Hardy vs. Lytle is officially the main event, Miller vs. Henderson is the best fight on the card. Miller has a great resume: He’s 20-2, and the losses are to the two best lightweights in the world, Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard. If he wins this one, you have to think he’s next in line for a shot at the winner of the upcoming Edgar-Maynard fight.

But Henderson, the former WEC lightweight champion, is an opponent who could give Miller some problems. Henderson isn’t as good on the ground as Miller, but he’s savvy enough to avoid getting tapped and maybe even put Miller in some trouble on the ground. And Henderson is a good enough striker that if he’s willing to take some chances and let his hands go, he could put Miller in some trouble on his feet.

However, that’s looking at the best-case scenario for Henderson if things go right. More likely, Miller takes Henderson down repeatedly, controls him on the ground, and grinds out a decision for his eighth consecutive win — the third-longest active winning streak in the UFC, behind only Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre.
Pick: Miller

Charles Oliveira vs. Donald Cerrone
A year ago, Oliveira burst onto the scene in his UFC debut, forcing Darren Elkins to tap to an armbar and winning the Submission of the Night award. At the time, he was 20 years old and 13-0 in his MMA career, and things were looking great. But 2011 hasn’t been as kind to Oliveira: He suffered the first loss of his career, against Jim Miller, and then had his victory over Nik Lentz turned into a no-contest because he used an illegal knee strike.

Now Oliveira gets another tough draw in Donald Cerrone, who’s riding high on a four-fight winning streak. These are two of the best jiu jitsu practitioners in the lightweight division, and I expect 15 minutes of fast-paced action on the ground. Cerrone winning wouldn’t surprise me, but I think Oliveira’s relentless style will be impressive enough to the judges for him to earn the decision.
Pick: Oliveira

Amir Sadollah vs. Duane Ludwig
Sadollah was extremely inexperienced when he won Season 7 of The Ultimate Fighter, and as a result the UFC has brought him on carefully, picking just the right opponents. Ludwig is another example of that: A name fans know because he’s been around for years, but not a fighter who at this stage in his career is just barely fighting at a UFC level. Sadollah should be able to beat Ludwig comfortably.
Pick: Sadollah

C.B. Dollaway vs. Jared Hamman
Dollaway is the guy Sadollah beat to win The Ultimate Fighter, and he, like Sadollah, has progressed in fits and starts. Mark Munoz made short work of Dollaway in his last fight, knocking him out in less than a minute, and that could mean trouble for Dollaway, as Hamman has knockout power, too. But I think Dollaway’s superior wrestling will rule the day, and he’ll win a decision.
Pick: Dollaway

Joseph Benavidez vs. Eddie Wineland
This fight really ought to be on the Versus card instead of Sadollah vs. Ludwig, but you can think of it as a nice reward for the hard-core fans who seek out the Facebook preliminaries. Wineland was the WEC’s first bantamweight champion, and he put up a good fight against Urijah Faber in his UFC debut in March. Benavidez, however, should be able to frustrate Wineland by coming at him at unusual angles and win a decision.
Pick: Benavidez

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UFC on Versus 5: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThere’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessa…

Filed under: UFC

There’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessarily includes a confused few minutes of searching for Versus on the cable TV dial, let’s look at how oddsmakers see the action going down in Milwaukee.

Chris Lytle (-130) vs. Dan Hardy (even)

In his role as the guy you fight when you want to throw them bungalows and forget about the existence of takedowns altogether, Lytle has been pretty dependable. That’s good news for Hardy, who, after three straight losses, needs a win so bad he can feel it in his mohawk. We know Hardy can be outwrestled, but we also know Lytle isn’t likely to take that route. He’ll stand there and fling blows for as long as Hardy wants, regardless of whether it’s a good idea or not. We know Lytle is a skilled striker. What we have to wonder at this point is if he can stand up to Hardy’s power. The 36-year-old vet started to look his age a little bit in his last fight. He’s been eyeing retirement and a potential political run recently, while Hardy has no choice but to win. Kind of makes you think that the Brit might want/need this more.
My pick: Hardy. Based on past experience, Lytle will probably let him off the hook by ignoring the glaring weakness in his takedown defense. From there, youth and speed rule the day.

Ben Henderson (+145) vs. Jim Miller (-175)

We’re still figuring out just how well the top WEC lightweights stack up against the UFC regulars, but Henderson’s decision win over Mark Bocek was enough to tell us that he deserves to be taken seriously. However, there’s a big difference between edging out Bocek and hanging with Miller, who’s as underappreciated as any fighter in the UFC right now. The last time he lost a fight was to current top contender Gray Maynard, and that was in 2009. Since then he’s won seven straight, against quality opponents, and he’s finished more than half of them. Henderson is a decent striker with good grappling, but it’s hard to see where he holds significant advantages over Miller. This seems like Miller’s time to shine, and oddsmakers know it.
My pick: Miller. At -175 (meaning you’d need to wager $175 to win $100), you’re better off saving it for a parlay pick. Just don’t count on Henderson to be your underdog savior.

Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (even)

There’s a lot to like about Oliveira, even though, after his blatantly illegal knee on Nik Lentz, his understanding of the unified rules of MMA may not be one of them. But while he looked impressive right up to that point, just as he did against Efrain Escudero last September, he’s facing a different kind of opponent in Cerrone. “Cowboy” is just straight-up mean. He took a disturbing amount of joy in leg-kicking Vagner Rocha until he could no longer stand, and when forced to use it, he’s also got a pretty good submissions game. Oliveira had a strong start to his UFC career, but we have to face the fact that he’s seeing a big jump up in competition lately, especially with Miller and now Cerrone, and we don’t know for sure yet whether he’s ready for it.
My pick: Cerrone. It’s going to be a close one, and quite possibly the best fight on this card, but I think his experience and crowd/judge-pleasing style will make the difference.

Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+250)

This is one where oddsmakers seem to have zeroed in on the right guy, but are perhaps a little overly optimistic. On paper, Sadollah should beat Ludwig. But when you’re looking at an experienced kickboxer like “Bang” going up against a still pretty inexperienced fighter like Sadollah, I’m not sure I’d have the faith to go all the way to 3-1 on it. Yes, Sadollah looked impressive against DaMarques Johnson (who took the fight on very short notice) in March. And yes, his weakness is his wrestling, where Ludwig isn’t likely to take it. But any time you’re trading kicks and punches with a guy who has as many kickboxing bouts as Ludwig does, there’s always a chance for things to go wrong.
My pick: Sadollah, though I could never get on board with these odds. In fact, Ludwig might even be worth small action if you’re sick of playing the lottery, where you so rarely get a decent fight for your money.

Quick picks:

– Jim Hettes (-400) over Alex Caceras (+300). I know, you loved him as Bruce Leeroy on TUF, but Hettes appears to have the submission game that Caceras lacks, so don’t get suckered in here.

– Jacob Volkmann (+105) over Danny Castillo (-135). Volkmann is not terribly fun to watch, and his trash talk on Obama comes off like an ill-conceived Mr. Bean sketch, but he’s got this.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Hardy + Miller + Cerrone + Volkmann

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It’s Official: Oliveira – Lentz Declared No Contest

Don’t tell him yet. He just looks so happy…

Hey, just a quick follow up on that other story from UFC Live: Versus vs Spike. We told you earlier about how the Oliveira – Lentz fight ended somewhat controversially, and that we were happy to see the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission step in and let everyone know that, yes, they saw that shit too, and they were going to sit down and watch that shit again, on tape, in a very official manner. Plus they were going to force the referee to watch that shit, on tape, in a very serious manner, and possibly whack him in the back of the head with a newspaper whenever a foul occurs on his watch. Not really hard, just enough to get his attention. (That last part might have been part of our own fantasy world. Welcome; we hope you like our hats.)

We also passed along Greg Nelson’s Facebook message saying that the fight was ruled a No Contest, his boy Lentz had picked up a crisp new check for 50K for fighting like he wanted to be a fucking fighter, and all was right with the world. Nelson’s statement was premature, but the PSAC comfirmed yesterday that they had in fact reviewed the tape and consulted with the referee (meaning: “whacked him in the head with a newspaper”) and have ruled that the fight will be overturned to an NC.

Don’t tell him yet. He just looks so happy…

So, it’s all good, like the fight never happened — just don’t anybody tell Nik’s ocular-brainial complex, since he’ll be out for a couple of months because his pussy-ass eye can’t handle an occasional kneecap:

Still, he got that sweet bonus and Joe Silva has another matchup that comes prepackaged for hype. Wins all around, right?

[RX]

Hump Day Headlines with Stephanie Ann Cook

It’s no coincidence that Chael Sonnen‘s suspension and Lindsay Lohan‘s house arrest were both lifted today. Learning Lesson: if you’re going to f*ck up in life, do it in California. BJ Penn took to his.

It’s no coincidence that Chael Sonnen‘s suspension and Lindsay Lohan‘s house arrest were both lifted today. Learning Lesson: if you’re going to f*ck up in life, do it in California.

BJ Penn took to his Twitter to blast Testosterone Replacement Therapy and calls PED use a cancer in the sport.

Pennsylvania Athletic Commision overturns Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz to a No Contest due to Oliveira’s accidental kick to Lentz who was on the ground.

Kimbo Slice to make pro boxing debut on August 13th in a show produced by Gary Shaw Productions and Tony Holden Promotions.

Ricco Rodriguez vs. Seth Petruzelli is set for Bellator 48 on August 20th.

Strikeforce Challengers 18 headlined by Jorge Gurgel vs. Joe Duarte at the Palms in Las Vegas. Tickets on sale to the public this Saturday.

USA Today releases latest MMA Fighter rankings for June 2011.

Charles Oliveira’s Win Over Nik Lentz Changed to No Contest

Filed under: UFC, NewsThe result of Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz is now officially a no contest.

The Pennsylvania state athletic commission on Wednesday determined that an illegal knee by Oliveira set up his submission win at this past Sunday’s UFC …

Filed under: UFC, News

The result of Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz is now officially a no contest.

The Pennsylvania state athletic commission on Wednesday determined that an illegal knee by Oliveira set up his submission win at this past Sunday’s UFC on Versus 4 in Pittsburgh.

“After review of the tape of this contest and after consultation with the referee the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission has ruled that the results of this match will be changed to a no-contest,” Executive Director Gregory Sirb said in a statement provided to MMAFighting.com. “This change is a direct result from an accidental kick to the head by Mr. Oliveira to a grounded Mr. Lentz.”

In the second round of the preliminary lightweight fight, Oliveira landed a knee to the head of a grounded Lentz and proceeded to tap out Lentz with a rear-naked choke at one minute and 48 seconds. The knee, while accidental, was clearly illegal and noticed by the live audience watching and the UFC commentators. However, there was no call from the one person who could have made a difference that night, the referee.

“All the other referees were jumping up, guys from the commission were jumping up, I was jumping up. A lot of people were wondering what was going on, why the fight wasn’t being stopped, because it was so blatant,” Lentz’s coach Greg Nelson told MMAFighting.com Tuesday, adding that Lentz suffered an injury to his eye socket due to the knee.

Despite the controversial finish, the match was exciting enough that it was awarded Fight of the Night by the UFC and both fighters walked away each with a $50,000 bonus.

With the result change, Lentz (21-3-2) remains undefeated in his UFC run with five wins, a draw and a no contest. Meanwhile, Oliveira (14-1) will have to try again to bounce back from the first loss of his career last December against Jim Miller.

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