UFC on Versus 5: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCThere’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessa…

Filed under:

There’s nothing like a free Sunday night fight card from the UFC to take your mind off the impending doom of Monday morning and the current lack of good TV dramas on HBO.

As we settle in to enjoy another event on Versus, which necessarily includes a confused few minutes of searching for Versus on the cable TV dial, let’s look at how oddsmakers see the action going down in Milwaukee.

Chris Lytle (-130) vs. Dan Hardy (even)

In his role as the guy you fight when you want to throw them bungalows and forget about the existence of takedowns altogether, Lytle has been pretty dependable. That’s good news for Hardy, who, after three straight losses, needs a win so bad he can feel it in his mohawk. We know Hardy can be outwrestled, but we also know Lytle isn’t likely to take that route. He’ll stand there and fling blows for as long as Hardy wants, regardless of whether it’s a good idea or not. We know Lytle is a skilled striker. What we have to wonder at this point is if he can stand up to Hardy’s power. The 36-year-old vet started to look his age a little bit in his last fight. He’s been eyeing retirement and a potential political run recently, while Hardy has no choice but to win. Kind of makes you think that the Brit might want/need this more.
My pick: Hardy. Based on past experience, Lytle will probably let him off the hook by ignoring the glaring weakness in his takedown defense. From there, youth and speed rule the day.

Ben Henderson (+145) vs. Jim Miller (-175)

We’re still figuring out just how well the top WEC lightweights stack up against the UFC regulars, but Henderson’s decision win over Mark Bocek was enough to tell us that he deserves to be taken seriously. However, there’s a big difference between edging out Bocek and hanging with Miller, who’s as underappreciated as any fighter in the UFC right now. The last time he lost a fight was to current top contender Gray Maynard, and that was in 2009. Since then he’s won seven straight, against quality opponents, and he’s finished more than half of them. Henderson is a decent striker with good grappling, but it’s hard to see where he holds significant advantages over Miller. This seems like Miller’s time to shine, and oddsmakers know it.
My pick: Miller. At -175 (meaning you’d need to wager $175 to win $100), you’re better off saving it for a parlay pick. Just don’t count on Henderson to be your underdog savior.

Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (even)

There’s a lot to like about Oliveira, even though, after his blatantly illegal knee on Nik Lentz, his understanding of the unified rules of MMA may not be one of them. But while he looked impressive right up to that point, just as he did against Efrain Escudero last September, he’s facing a different kind of opponent in Cerrone. “Cowboy” is just straight-up mean. He took a disturbing amount of joy in leg-kicking Vagner Rocha until he could no longer stand, and when forced to use it, he’s also got a pretty good submissions game. Oliveira had a strong start to his UFC career, but we have to face the fact that he’s seeing a big jump up in competition lately, especially with Miller and now Cerrone, and we don’t know for sure yet whether he’s ready for it.
My pick: Cerrone. It’s going to be a close one, and quite possibly the best fight on this card, but I think his experience and crowd/judge-pleasing style will make the difference.

Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+250)

This is one where oddsmakers seem to have zeroed in on the right guy, but are perhaps a little overly optimistic. On paper, Sadollah should beat Ludwig. But when you’re looking at an experienced kickboxer like “Bang” going up against a still pretty inexperienced fighter like Sadollah, I’m not sure I’d have the faith to go all the way to 3-1 on it. Yes, Sadollah looked impressive against DaMarques Johnson (who took the fight on very short notice) in March. And yes, his weakness is his wrestling, where Ludwig isn’t likely to take it. But any time you’re trading kicks and punches with a guy who has as many kickboxing bouts as Ludwig does, there’s always a chance for things to go wrong.
My pick: Sadollah, though I could never get on board with these odds. In fact, Ludwig might even be worth small action if you’re sick of playing the lottery, where you so rarely get a decent fight for your money.

Quick picks:

– Jim Hettes (-400) over Alex Caceras (+300).
I know, you loved him as Bruce Leeroy on TUF, but Hettes appears to have the submission game that Caceras lacks, so don’t get suckered in here.

– Jacob Volkmann (+105) over Danny Castillo (-135). Volkmann is not terribly fun to watch, and his trash talk on Obama comes off like an ill-conceived Mr. Bean sketch, but he’s got this.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: Hardy + Miller + Cerrone + Volkmann

 

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It’s Official: Oliveira – Lentz Declared No Contest

Don’t tell him yet.  He just looks so happy

Hey, just a quick follow up on that other story from UFC Live: Versus vs Spike. We told you earlier about how the Oliveira – Lentz fight ended somewhat controversially, and that we were happy to see the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission step in and let everyone know that, yes, they saw that shit too, and they were going to sit down and watch that shit again, on tape, in a very official manner. Plus they were going to force the referee to watch that shit, on tape, in a very serious manner, and possibly whack him in the back of the head with a newspaper whenever a foul occurs on his watch.  Not really hard, just enough to get his attention.  (That last part might have been part of our own fantasy world.  Welcome; we hope you like our hats.)

We also passed along Greg Nelson’s Facebook message saying that the fight was ruled a No Contest, his boy Lentz had picked up a crisp new check for 50K for fighting like he wanted to be a fucking fighter, and all was right with the world. Nelson’s statement was premature, but the PSAC comfirmed yesterday that they had in fact reviewed the tape and consulted with the referee (meaning: “whacked him in the head with a newspaper”) and have ruled that the fight will be overturned to an NC.

Don’t tell him yet.  He just looks so happy

Hey, just a quick follow up on that other story from UFC Live: Versus vs Spike. We told you earlier about how the Oliveira – Lentz fight ended somewhat controversially, and that we were happy to see the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission step in and let everyone know that, yes, they saw that shit too, and they were going to sit down and watch that shit again, on tape, in a very official manner. Plus they were going to force the referee to watch that shit, on tape, in a very serious manner, and possibly whack him in the back of the head with a newspaper whenever a foul occurs on his watch.  Not really hard, just enough to get his attention.  (That last part might have been part of our own fantasy world.  Welcome; we hope you like our hats.)

We also passed along Greg Nelson’s Facebook message saying that the fight was ruled a No Contest, his boy Lentz had picked up a crisp new check for 50K for fighting like he wanted to be a fucking fighter, and all was right with the world. Nelson’s statement was premature, but the PSAC comfirmed yesterday that they had in fact reviewed the tape and consulted with the referee (meaning: “whacked him in the head with a newspaper”) and have ruled that the fight will be overturned to an NC.

So, it’s all good, like the fight never happened — just don’t anybody tell Nik’s ocular-brainial complex, since he’ll be out for a couple of months because his pussy-ass eye can’t handle an occasional kneecap:

Still, he got that sweet bonus and Joe Silva has another matchup that comes prepackaged for hype. Wins all around, right?

[RX]

Hump Day Headlines with Stephanie Ann Cook

It’s no coincidence that Chael Sonnen‘s suspension and Lindsay Lohan‘s house arrest were both lifted today. Learning Lesson: if you’re going to f*ck up in life, do it in California. BJ Penn took to his.

It’s no coincidence that Chael Sonnen‘s suspension and Lindsay Lohan‘s house arrest were both lifted today. Learning Lesson: if you’re going to f*ck up in life, do it in California.

BJ Penn took to his Twitter to blast Testosterone Replacement Therapy and calls PED use a cancer in the sport.

Pennsylvania Athletic Commision overturns Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz to a No Contest due to Oliveira’s accidental kick to Lentz who was on the ground.

Kimbo Slice to make pro boxing debut on August 13th in a show produced by Gary Shaw Productions and Tony Holden Promotions.

Ricco Rodriguez vs. Seth Petruzelli is set for Bellator 48 on August 20th.

Strikeforce Challengers 18 headlined by Jorge Gurgel vs. Joe Duarte at the Palms in Las Vegas. Tickets on sale to the public this Saturday.

USA Today releases latest MMA Fighter rankings for June 2011.

Charles Oliveira’s Win Over Nik Lentz Changed to No Contest

Filed under: UFC, NewsThe result of Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz is now officially a no contest.

The Pennsylvania state athletic commission on Wednesday determined that an illegal knee by Oliveira set up his submission win at this past Sunday’s UFC …

Filed under: ,

The result of Charles Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz is now officially a no contest.

The Pennsylvania state athletic commission on Wednesday determined that an illegal knee by Oliveira set up his submission win at this past Sunday’s UFC on Versus 4 in Pittsburgh.

“After review of the tape of this contest and after consultation with the referee the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission has ruled that the results of this match will be changed to a no-contest,” Executive Director Gregory Sirb said in a statement provided to MMAFighting.com. “This change is a direct result from an accidental kick to the head by Mr. Oliveira to a grounded Mr. Lentz.”

In the second round of the preliminary lightweight fight, Oliveira landed a knee to the head of a grounded Lentz and proceeded to tap out Lentz with a rear-naked choke at one minute and 48 seconds. The knee, while accidental, was clearly illegal and noticed by the live audience watching and the UFC commentators. However, there was no call from the one person who could have made a difference that night, the referee.

“All the other referees were jumping up, guys from the commission were jumping up, I was jumping up. A lot of people were wondering what was going on, why the fight wasn’t being stopped, because it was so blatant,” Lentz’s coach Greg Nelson told MMAFighting.com Tuesday, adding that Lentz suffered an injury to his eye socket due to the knee.

Despite the controversial finish, the match was exciting enough that it was awarded Fight of the Night by the UFC and both fighters walked away each with a $50,000 bonus.

With the result change, Lentz (21-3-2) remains undefeated in his UFC run with five wins, a draw and a no contest. Meanwhile, Oliveira (14-1) will have to try again to bounce back from the first loss of his career last December against Jim Miller.

 

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Greg Nelson: ‘Illegal’ Knee Broke Nik Lentz’s Eye Socket, Bout Should Be Overturned

Filed under: UFCJust because Charles Oliveira got his hand raised when it was all over, that doesn’t mean his win over Nik Lentz on the prelim portion of Sunday night’s UFC Live fight card will stand.

That’s because while Oliveira may have finished t…

Filed under:

Just because Charles Oliveira got his hand raised when it was all over, that doesn’t mean his win over Nik Lentz on the prelim portion of Sunday night’s UFC Live fight card will stand.

That’s because while Oliveira may have finished the fight with a rear naked choke, he did so moments after hitting a kneeling Lentz with what appeared to be a blatantly illegal knee to the head. It was that knee that changed the complexion of the fight, said Lentz’s coach, Greg Nelson, and that’s why he expects Oliveira’s win to be change to a no contest by the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission.

“It’s the illegal knee that basically knocked Nik Lentz out so he could get his back and hook him,” Nelson told MMA Fighting on Monday evening. “I mean, he was clearly down. That knee broke Nik Lentz’s eye socket, so it was not a soft knee. He took his time, held the back of the head, wound up the knee and then let it go. …It was a super hard knee that ended up doing a lot of damage.”

But the referee for the fight — Ohio’s Chip Snider — didn’t intervene after the illegal blow, which shocked not only Nelson, but also observers at ringside, he said.

“All the other referees were jumping up, guys from the commission were jumping up, I was jumping up. A lot of people were wondering what was going on, why the fight wasn’t being stopped, because it was so blatant. Then the crowd, when they saw the replay, it was doubly obvious to them.”

At the moment, the result of the bout still stands as a win for Oliveira, but PSAC executive director Greg Sirb said the commission is currently in the process of reviewing the bout, and expects to have a ruling to announce on Wednesday.

“After the referee came to me and we said we’d look at it, he had no qualms about looking at it, and we’re in the process of doing that,” said Sirb, who added that no appeal from the Lentz camp was necessary in order to start the review process. Sirb said that both he and the referee will look at the fight separately and discuss it over the phone before arriving at a decision.

“We looked at it a little bit last night and the ref will look at it again today, just to make sure we’re on the same page,” Sirb said. “We should have something I imagine some time [Wednesday].”

Earlier this week, Nelson wrote online that the result of the bout had already been changed to a no contest, but that was based on information he got from UFC officials after the fight, he said.

“I was told by the guys at the UFC that it was going to be overturned. …Of course I spoke to as many people as I could and they were reiterating to me that they were pretty sure the commission would overturn it. That was across the board. Everyone who saw it who I talked to, that’s what they said. They couldn’t believe that it wasn’t stopped when it happened.”

As for Lentz, he spent Sunday night in the hospital, having his badly damaged eye seen to. Nelson described his fighter as “really upset” with the result of the fight, though he was pleased to receive the $50,000 bonus from the UFC for Fight of the Night. Nelson also said Lentz would have to wait until he could get back to Minneapolis and see his doctors there before they would know the full extent of his eye injury.

The knee that caught Lentz was a brutal and illegal one, Nelson added, but he doesn’t think it was particularly malicious on Oliveira’s part.

“I don’t think it was done on purpose. It was done in the heat of the moment, but it was still done.”

 

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UFC Live on Versus 4: 5 Things to Take Away

Seems like you should be able to predict the fight based on the shorts alone. PicProps: MMAJunkie

It happens everytime. You write off a UFC card as uninteresting and decide to paint along with Bob Ross (or whatever it is you do with your personal time), and the fighters get wind of it and take your lack of interest personally.

They get in to the Octagon and perform stupifying acts of athleticism and heartitude, Dana White gets a huge boner at the press conference, and now you have to read recaps and watch GIFs to catch up on the action. Sucks to be you, we guess.

Frankly, you need to be making better choices in your life — you cannot paint those happy little clouds and friendly little mountains like Bob Ross — no one can. Frodog himself couldn’t even paint like that; all of Bob Ross’s shows were actually produced by Industrial Light and Magic. There, the secret is out, and we can die in peace.

For those dedicated souls that tuned in, hey wow, how about that show, huh? Like you, we had some thoughts during the fights, and unlike you, we wrote some of these thoughts down during and after the fights. Come on in and let us tell you how you’re feeling right now.

All hail Zombie Prophet!

Seems like you should be able to predict the fight based on the shorts alone. PicProps: MMAJunkie

It happens everytime.  You write off a UFC card as uninteresting and decide to paint along with Bob Ross (or whatever it is you do with your personal time), and the fighters get wind of it and take your lack of interest personally.

They get in to the Octagon and perform stupifying acts of athleticism and heartitude, Dana White gets a huge boner at the press conference, and now you have to read recaps and watch GIFs to catch up on the action.  Sucks to be you, we guess.

Frankly, you need to be making better choices in your life — you cannot paint those happy little clouds and friendly little mountains like Bob Ross — no one can.  Frodog himself couldn’t even paint like that; all of Bob Ross’s shows were actually produced by Industrial Light and Magic.  There, the secret is out, and we can die in peace.

For those dedicated souls that tuned in, hey wow, how about that show, huh?  Like you, we had some thoughts during the fights, and unlike you, we wrote some of these thoughts down during and after the fights.   Come on in and let us tell you how you’re feeling right now.

All hail Zombie Prophet!

1. Cheaters still prosper…or do they?

Charles Oliveira and Nik Lentz were putting on a damn show in the prelims, until Oliveira blasted Lentz in the eyepiece with an illegal knee. When referee Chip Snider missed the blow completely and kept the fight going, Lentz was submitted like he had no clue what was going on. (Because he didn’t.)  Oliveira gets the win, and our blood pressure started going up … until we’re informed that reps from the Pennsylvania Athletic Commission were on the case, and the fight and the result would be examined. Props, kudos, and respect to the AC for being on the ball to: A) catch the foul, and B) move swiftly to assure everyone that they caught the foul.

2. Hey look! Another walk-off knockout!

It was quickly apparent in the Mitrione-Morecraft fight that Meathead hits quite a bit harder than Christian Morecraft appreciates being hit, and we were surprised to see it make it out of the first.  It was the accumulation of damage, rather than one crushing killshot, that sent Morecraft to the floor, but Mitrione knew his work was done.  Morecraft shying away from the referee like he’d just been tag-teamed by a honey badger and a silverback gorilla hopped up on Cialis only served to reinforce that he was done for the night.  Mitrione was already off shaking hands with Joe Silva and thinking of a joke for his Rogan interview.  Walk-off knockouts:  yep, still awesome.

3. Maybe it’s NOT such a good idea to take fights back to back ….

Saturday, Rick Story was riding an impressive win streak (poised to join the 7 Win Club), coming off a great victory, shooting up the welterweight rankings, and was a chic pick to spoil Nate Marquardt’s debut at 170.  Sunday night, he’s getting outwrestled by some guy from the prelims.  While the late change in opponents could have been a factor, Story looked to be having some fatigue issues as the fight went on.  Whether he was over-trained or under-gameplanned, Story probably wishes he’d taken a couple months off.  On a related note…

4. It’s time to take a good look at Charlie Brenneman.

And we don’t mean his skinny-puppy physique or those awesomely bad highlighter vale tudo shorts.  Charlie Brenneman is now 14-2 professionally, with losses to John Howard (three years ago) and Johny Hendricks — no shame there.  In the UFC, he’s sent two other fighters home with a pink slip, including his debut victory over Jason High.   On one hand, it seems surreal to even mention Brenneman against guys like GSP, Fitch, or Koscheck; on the other, he deserves more than just returning to the prelims versus TJ Grant.  There’s plenty of fights for him:  Brian Foster (if his brain is ok) or Matt Brown would be appropriate tests for him, but if he wants to make a splash he’ll go after Thiago Alves.  We can’t see him winning that fight, but then again,  dude, did you see what he did to Rick Story?

5. Hey look! Another “back from the dead” win!

Cheick Kongo and Pat Barry brought the artillery for their fight, and they manages to use all of it in just about two and a half minutes.  HD had Kongo reeling all over the Octagon between two knockdowns, and everyone expected ref Dan Mirgliotta to jump in and save Kongo — including Mirgliotta himself. Kongo managed to regain his footing, shaky as it was, and land a right hook and a follow-on uppercut that put Barry directly in touch with his belated great-nana .  It was a scary KO and we were glad to see our boy HD was ok, but holy Scott Smith Batman!  Between his “hay ladies” physique and his concussive knockouts, Kongo reminded all of us why he’s still in the UFC last night.

[RX]