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UFC 149 MMAFix Picks

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165) Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although.

Renan Pagado (-190) vs. Urijah Faber (+165)
Elise: The main event of UFC 149 will truly be worth the price of PPV. The title of the Interim Bantamweight belt goes to Faber or Barao. Although Faber is considered the underdog in the fight, I say Faber by decision or Barao by submission choke in the 3rd or 4th round. Winner: Faber

Emily: The oddsmakers are right on in choosing Renan Barao as the favorite. Not only will he come out with the victory, but he is the highest value bet. We will no doubt be seeing him fight for the bantamweight title as soon as the champ recovers. Winner: Pagado

John: This is a tough one. Renan Barao is the clear favorite mainly due to his sick ass 29 fight win streak, and don’t get me wrong he is a bad dude, but people need to remember that we’re dealing with the alpha male of team Alpha Male—so show some respect b*tches!! Both of these guys are finishers, but I think they’ll more than likely cancel each other out in that regard. It will all come down to the takedown battle. If the “California Kid” can score enough takedowns to keep Barao from really getting going on the standup, I think he is good enough to avoid his opponent’s rather spectacular submission game for the decision victory. If he can’t, then Barao will pick him apart the whole time while periodically stuffing takedowns for a unanimous nod from the judges. I give a slight edge to Barao for his standup, but I definitely don’t think the betting line is where it should be for this fight. Urijah Faber is a killer, period! He fought Mike Brown for five with two f*cked up hands and went five with Aldo at 145lbs…that said I still have Barao coming up with the decision. Winner: Pagado

Ryan: The day Barao beat Brad Pickett, I knew he would be champion. I think Faber is of the elite, but Barao is a 135 pound Jose Aldo, and Aldo gave Faber a beating. Barao by decision. Winner: Pagado

Alan: Faber is a fan favorite and it’s always hard to pick against him but Pagado is superior in almost every area. He’ll win this fight relatively easily probably taking at least four rounds on the way to a decision. If the line was a little more lopsided, I might be inclined to take a flyer on Faber but +165 isn’t enough to make it worth it. Winner: Pagado

MMAFIX Staff Pick: Pagado (4-1)

Hector Lombard (-390) vs. Tim Boetsch (+320)

John: Replacing the injured Brian Stann, Tim Boetsch is going to have his hands full with Bellator middleweight champ Hector Lombard. On an impressive 24 fight win streak of his own, Lombard has the power to put the “Barbarian” away, but as Boetsch showed in his last bout against former title challenger Yushin
Okami, you can beat the sh*t out of him the whole fight, and he can still knock you out in brutal fashion. Lombard, a former Olympian, has the resume to beat Boetsch on paper. The question here is whether or not Lombard f*cks people up the way he does because he has been fighting lower level competition or because he really is just that good. Either way we’ll find out Saturday.

Even though I’m rooting for Boetsch, I have to go with Lombard by first round KO or second round TKO—bro, he called out “the Warmaster,” heavyweight Josh Barnett….that’s right heavyweight.

For those of you who don’t understand, this means two things:

1. Hector Lombard has huge balls
2. Hector Lombard is just about the rawest motherf***er out there….sometimes you just have to believe in the crazy person.

Winner: Lombard

Ryan: I think that people make Lombard out to be better than he really is, and he hasn’t quite proved himself to be in the top 10 of the division yet. With that However, Tim boetsch is only in the top 10 from a crazy come from behind KO of Yushin Okami. With that being said, I agree with Lombard being the favorite, but not sure if the it’s too much in the favor of Lombard or not. Lombard knows if he is impressive in this fight he could get a title shot, so look for Lombard to end this fight quite. Lombard by TKO. Winner: Lombard

Alan: Like everyone else, I’m picking Lombard to win. But I love the line on Boetsch. Lombard hasn’t faced anyone near this caliber and this is his first UFC appearance. If I’m betting this fight, I’m going with Boetsch and hoping for the upset. He’s an underdog but not a +320 underdog. This is a perfect low risk high reward type of betting situation. Winner: Lombard

MMAFix Staff Pick: Lombard (3-0)

UFC 149 Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

While UFC 149 may easily be the most injury-plagued card of all time, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some fights worth watching on Saturday night. The main event of the evening gives two elite bantamweights a chance to win the interim title wi…

While UFC 149 may easily be the most injury-plagued card of all time, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some fights worth watching on Saturday night.

The main event of the evening gives two elite bantamweights a chance to win the interim title with champion Dominick Cruz on the shelf with an ACL injury.

“The California Kid,” Urijah Faber could be looking at his last title shot in the UFC when he takes on the versatile Renan Barao.

Opening up the main card, welterweights Chris Clements and Matt Riddle are ready to throw down and put on a show.

Staying at 170 pounds, Brian “Bad Boy” Ebersole has no issues fighting twice in one month when he steps up against James Head.

In a heavyweight clash, Cheick “The French Sensation” Kongo squares off against Shawn “The Savage” Jordan in what could be an entertaining slug fest.

In the co-main event of the evening, Hector “Lightning” Lombard makes his long-awaited Octagon debut against Tim “The Barbarian” Boetsch.

Predicting the action this week are Bleacher Report MMA Featured Columnists Dan Hiergesell, Jeffrey McKinney, Matt Juul and myself, John Heinis.

Take a look inside to get an in-depth analysis of the action.

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UFC 149: Cheick Kongo Apparently Doesn’t Understand What a Gatekeeper Is

If we made a list of the top 5 scariest-looking dudes in the UFC, Cheick Kongo would be championship material. He’s actually one of the nicest guys you’ll ever meet, but he’s certainly an imposing and intimidating athlete.Unfortunately for Kongo, terri…

Unfortunately for Kongo, terrifying looks don’t win you fights. He hasn’t been able to string together three consecutive wins since 2008-2009. His last fight was a loss to Mark Hunt, and let’s be honest: Hunt isn’t exactly top-tier UFC material, despite a nice little winning streak that he’s in the midst of putting together.

Does that make Kongo a gatekeeper? He was asked about that very topic during today’s UFC 149 press conference in Calgary, and gave this very curious answer:

That’s pretty weird. Gatekeeper reminds me of some activity in France like me used to do. I am not wearing suit when I’m fighting. I’m no gatekeeper. I try my best, sometimes I make mistakes, and I got too much ego to pull out of fight, and I’m so proud, so I say yes. I used to do the right things; I got enough strength to do it. Not just because I’m black, I’m supposed to be a gatekeeper. I have a dream like everyone, and I am going to get it.

Judging by this answer, I’m going to assume Kongo doesn’t actually know what a gatekeeper is. A gatekeeper, as I’m sure you know, is typically an aging fighter who has very little championship hopes remaining but can still provide a stern test for fighters looking to make their way into the title picture.

I don’t know what wearing a suit would have to do with being a gatekeeper, unless Kongo is referring to someone like a bellhop that opens doors at hotels.

But the larger point is this: Kongo is not a gatekeeper because he’s never gotten to the point where he could have been considered a title contender. Not even remotely. You have to be a contender, at least at some point along the way, to be considered a gatekeeper in the truest sense of the word.

That being said, a win over Kongo would do wonders for LSU alum Shawn Jordan. It won’t launch him into the title picture or even put him in the top 10, but the former Strikeforce heavyweight is making a case for himself as a guy to keep your eye on in the future.

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UFC 149 Faber vs. Barao: Pre-Fight Analysis

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided.

Urijah Faber vs. Renan Pagado

This headlining fight for UFC 149 was originally supposed to be a featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Eric Koch but after an injury to Aldo, the UFC decided to manufacture a replacement title fight out of nothing by creating an interim bantamweight belt to be held while Dominic Cruz is sidelined. After an ill-conceived attempt to spark a buzz over who Urijah Faber would face for the interim title, the UFC announced that Renan Pagado would be the opponent as expected.

Faber is a known commodity. His looks and personality combined with his early dominance of the featherweight division have made him one of the more marketable stars in MMA and he deserves a huge portion of the credit for pushing the growth of the lighter weight classes. Not only has he aided that growth through his performance in and out of the cage but his Team Alpha Male gym has become the best gym on the world for small former wrestlers looking to make the transition to MMA. Faber has solid wrestling and an impressive arsenal of submissions to compliment that wrestling. At the height of his career, he earned his victories by taking his opponents down and finishing either via submission or occasionally ground and pound. Unfortunately for him, he seems to have already passed his peak at age thirty three and has struggled in recent years with hand injuries early in fights. He has not been able to deal with either Dominick Cruz or Jose Aldo losing by decisions in each of his last two title fights. In Pagado, he faces a fighter who is often compared to Aldo. If he wants to earn the victory, he will have to show the unpredictable yet technical game that he brought the cage in his prime. He will need to get Pagado off balance and bring the fight to the ground. From there, he will need to find a way to maintain control. A finish seems unlikely but if he can control Pagado, he could scramble his way to a victory.

Renan Pagado is the exciting up and comer in the bantamweight division. He is widely considered to be the biggest threat to Dominick Cruz and some would even consider him the favorite in that fight. But first, he’ll have to deal with Faber. Pagado lost the first fight of his career and has not lost since then compiling a twenty eight fight unbeaten streak and a seventeen fight win streak. His game seems to have no significant holes. He is a dangerous striker with a diverse arsenal of kicks and punches. His takedown defense in excellent but he isn’t afraid to go the ground because his jiu-jitsu is some of the best in the division. In this fight, he will likely have a slight advantage everywhere the fight goes except maybe in the scrambles and the transitions. He will probably settle in to a strategy of trying to defend the takedown to fight Faber on the feet the same way Cruz and Aldo have done in the past. If he does that, he should have a clear advantage and be able to earn the decision. Faber is incredibly durable so if Pagado can somehow earn the finish, that would be a serious statement.

The bookmakers have Pagado as a solid favorite at -190 with Faber at +165. Keeping it that close shows respect for the former champion and a certain amount of caution as Pagado has yet to face competition on Faber’s level. But in reality, that line could shift further in favor of Pagado and no one would argue. The most likely script for this fight is that Pagado will keep the fight on the feet and strike his way to victory. But if Faber can turn this into a scramble fest and keep Pagado off balance, he could pull off the upset and earn the right to face Cruz for a third time.

Hector Lombard vs. Tim Boetsch

In the only fight to benefit positively from the injuries that infected UFC 149, Hector Lombard replaces Michael Bisping to face Tim Boetsch in a matchup of top middleweights. The winner of this fight is likely to jump to the front of the line along with Chris Weidman as the top contenders to challenge Anderson Silva for the title.

Since dropping to middleweight, Boetsch has looked great earning consecutive victories over Kendall Grove, Nick Ring and former title challenger Yushin Okami. The last victory in particular elevated his status in the division and a win over the highly regarded Lombard would put him in the foreground of the title picture. Boetsch has shown a well rounded ugly game that lives up to his nickname as the “Barbarian.” He has finishing power in both hands and his boxing is deceptively technical. He mixes wrestling with his boxing and has shown the ability to bring fighters to the mat and control position. Once on the ground, his ground and pound is some of the best in the division and he is a constant threat to end the fight. In this fight, he will likely want to avoid engaging with Lombard on the feet. He will need to use his boxing to set up a takedown and control Lombard on the ground. If he can do that, he will ground and pound his way to a decision victory. But if he can’t and is forced to stand with Lombard, he could be in serious trouble.

Lombard comes to UFC aboard one of the louder hype trains in recent memory. He has destroyed his competition in lesser organizations compiling a twenty five fight unbeaten streak and twenty fight win streak. Most recently, he has dominated fighters like Trevor Prangley, Jesse Taylor and Faleniko Vitale in Bellator. He has devastating power in his hands and finished six of his seven opponents in Bellator. His strategy will be simple. He will look to keep the fight standing and box with Boetsch. We should get an idea quickly as to how Lombard stacks up against UFC competition. This will be by far the biggest test of his career and we should know early in the fight how he will respond. We’ve seen a myriad of fighters move to the UFC from smaller organizations and immediately have the weaknesses in their games exposed. That is a real possibility in this fight. But if Lombard comes in and earns a victory, he will establish himself as a real contender at middleweight and will have to be included in the title discussion. And if he earns an impressive victory, the UFC will have a tough decision as to who deserves the next shot at Anderson Silva.

The line on this fight currently has Lombard as a huge favorite at -380 with Boetsch at +315. Obviously, the bookmakers are impressed with Lombard’s performance against lesser competition and expect him to bring that level of explosiveness to his UFC debut. Boetsch is in trouble every second that this fight stays on the feet and no one will be surprised if Lombard lands a huge combination to end his night. But if Boetsch can wrestle Lombard to the mat and keep him there for a few minutes at a time, he could steal this fight.

UFC 149: Cheick Kongo Ready to Get Back on Track Against Shawn Jordan

Setbacks are a common occurrence in mixed martial arts. Whether it is injury or defeat, a fighter must learn how to bounce back from unfortunate circumstances. Failure to do so can be the nail in the coffin for a fizzled out career. But when a fighter …

Cheick Kongo has been a staple of the UFC heavyweight division for the past six years.

Several times throughout this stretch he has fallen only to rebound in impressive fashion. After a loss to Mark Hunt in his last outing, Kongo once again finds himself in the position where he needs to make a statement.

He will have the opportunity to do so when he faces Shawn Jordan this Saturday night at UFC 149 in Calgary.

While he was originally slated to face Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Big Nog’s slow recovery resulted in him being pulled from the card. Jordan was tapped to fill his spot and despite the change of opponent, Kongo is ready to give the fans what they want to see.

“I was preparing for Big Nog but he was hurt and now I fight Shawn Jordan,” Kongo told Bleacher Report. “I was ready for a good fight against Big Nog but that’s how it goes some times—that’s life. The UFC found a new opponent and everything is okay. It is important for the fan base to have a good fight. I’m here and I’m doing my thing.”

“In preparation for the fight with Jordan I didn’t really change anything in my camp. I worked with my coaches and on my sparring. I was obviously training my jiu-jitsu and that switched to wrestling after my opponent changed.”

“No fighter is the same and we have to be very smart and disciplined in how we attack. I’m very confident in my skills and it is going to be a great fight. I’m getting the victory and I’m going to get back on track.”

Throughout his time in the UFC heavyweight division, Kongo has witnessed plenty of change. For years, the weight class was thin on talent but now it has become one of the most competitive divisions in the organization. While Kongo hopes to eventually regain his contender status he is well aware fighters on the rise such as Jordan are looking to take his place.

“New fighters are coming into the division all the time and they are looking to replace the more established fighters,” Kongo said. “A fight like this is important for me because I need to stay in the rankings and get back to the top of the division.”

“There is a variety in the heavyweight division now and more guys are closer to my weight. I used to have to be careful about being taken down by bigger guys. Now there is a mixture of strikers, wrestlers, jiu-jitsu guys and I have to be prepared to handle that. The division right now is really good and I like that. It makes it a better challenge.”

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UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao — Extended Video Preview

(Props: YouTube.com via IronForgesIron)

The UFC’s summer schedule marches on this Saturday with UFC 149: Faber vs. Barao, the promotion’s injury-ravaged Calgary debut. Here’s the full-length video trailer for the event, which is especially worth watching if you’re not too familiar with Renan Barao, the Brazilian bantamweight on the 28-fight win streak who’s battling Urijah Faber in the main event. Barao is the kind of deadly-from-all-positions phenom who seems destined for a major title someday, and collecting the interim bantamweight strap with a big win over the California Kid would be a star-making moment for the Nova União product.

Later in the preview, the UFC introduces y’all newbs to Hector Lombard, but unfortunately they can’t show any of his stunning Bellator knockouts, so we have to settle for training footage and subtitled English. He’ll be facing Tim Boetsch, who says he’ll be next in line for the middleweight title after he finishes Lombard. (Sorry bro, Weidman already called dibs.)

Finally, we get a look at injury replacement Shawn Jordan, who trainer Greg Jackson calls “one of the most athletic heavyweights I’ve ever seen in my life.” For proof, check out the backflip he does at 7:23. Jordan is riding back-to-back second-round stoppage wins against Lavar Johnson in Strikeforce and Oli Thompson in his UFC debut. But is veteran striker Cheick Kongo too much, too soon? And are you guys going to buy this card or what? Shoot us your UFC 149 thoughts in the comments section.

(Props: YouTube.com via IronForgesIron)