I was reminded of something on Sunday night. Not only that I haven’t been to church in decades, but also that it can really hurt to be a fan of a specific fighter. I felt a sense of anger, sadness, and frustration when Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was knocked out by Dan Henderson. I haven’t felt that in years, not since June 26th, 2010, when Fedor Emelianenko suffered his real first loss. That night, I realized it may be better to be a fan of the sport of MMA, and not of individuals. Don’t get me wrong, I still have my favorites, but I try to look at every fight objectively and analytically.
It’s difficult not to put feelings and emotions into a fighter’s performance, because fighting is such an emotional sport. Fighters can’t always win, and don’t compete often. If seeing your favorite guy or gal win makes you happy, and watching them lose makes you sad, you could be in for one hell of a roller-coaster ride.
Being a fan of a fighter is not like being a hockey fan. The Red Wings can lose 15 games in a row and they could still go on a winning streak and make it to the playoffs. No big deal, they have a chance one or two times every week to start over. Not so much in this sport.
I was reminded of something on Sunday night. Not only that I haven’t been to church in decades, but also that it can really hurt to be a fan of a specific fighter. I felt a sense of anger, sadness, and frustration when Mauricio “Shogun” Rua was knocked out by Dan Henderson. I haven’t felt that in years, not since June 26th, 2010, when Fedor Emelianenko suffered his real first loss. That night, I realized it may be better to be a fan of the sport of MMA, and not of individuals. Don’t get me wrong, I still have my favorites, but I try to look at every fight objectively and analytically.
It’s difficult not to put feelings and emotions into a fighter’s performance, because fighting is such an emotional sport. Fighters can’t always win, and don’t compete often. If seeing your favorite guy or gal win makes you happy, and watching them lose makes you sad, you could be in for one hell of a roller-coaster ride.
Being a fan of a fighter is not like being a hockey fan. The Red Wings can lose 15 games in a row and they could still go on a winning streak and make it to the playoffs. No big deal, they have a chance one or two times every week to start over. Not so much in this sport.
If a fighter loses a few in a row, he may have to find a new promotion to fight for, or a new career altogether. So if you place any kind of emotional stake in your favorite fighters winning every time they stare down an opponent, you will be let down quite often. To me, it just doesn’t seem like a wise emotional investment to make. I thought that I had that behind me, but I guess not.
I expected Shogun to win his rematch with Henderson on Sunday, despite the closely contested slugfest they had over two years ago. Dan was coming off of three losses in a row, and I felt Mauricio had the upper hand. He is over a decade younger, is coming off of a knockout win and is a technically superior striker. For two rounds, he nearly proved me right, but seeing him lose the way he did, and in a fight I felt he should have won was devastating.
I suppose I should completely detach myself emotionally from all fights, undeterred by any opinions or preferences I may have. That, or I can let myself enjoy the emotional roller-coaster that goes along with being a fan — let it lift my spirits on the way up, and crash to the bottom as it always does. Ultimately, MMA still has the ability to make me feel, even if those feelings aren’t always pleasant. And that’s not a bad thing, is it?
Holding an event on a weekend when so much attention was focused on the Super Bowl gives the UFC a convenient excuse as to why UFC 169 may have underperformed. But it still doesn’t bode well for the promotion’s ability to sell pay-per-views for events headlined by male fighters under 155 pounds. UFC 169 featured Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo — the only absent sub-155 star was Dominick Cruz — and they still barely cleared the UFC Mendoza Line of 200k buys.
The good news (or bad news, depending on how you look at it) is that Ronda Rousey is a bigger draw completely on her own than Barao, Faber, and, Aldo put together…
(Ronda Rousey might actually be the biggest star the UFC has. Unfortunately, that’s not saying much. / Photo via Getty)
Holding an event on a weekend when so much attention was focused on the Super Bowl gives the UFC a convenient excuse as to why UFC 169 may have underperformed. But it still doesn’t bode well for the promotion’s ability to sell pay-per-views for events headlined by male fighters under 155 pounds. UFC 169 featured Renan Barao, Urijah Faber, Jose Aldo — the only absent sub-155 star was Dominick Cruz — and they still barely cleared the UFC Mendoza Line of 200k buys.
The good news (or bad news, depending on how you look at it) is that Ronda Rousey is a bigger draw completely on her own than Barao, Faber, and, Aldo put together. Meltzer reports that UFC 170: Rousey vs. McMann on February 22nd collected an estimated 340,000 pay-per-view buys, with a much weaker supporting card than UFC 169 had. (Two words: Durkin Cummins.) When you consider that Rousey also helped UFC 168 become the first million-selling pay-per-view since 2010, it’s undeniable that the women’s bantamweight champ has become an essential part of the UFC’s business.
So, is Ronda Rousey the biggest star the UFC has ever had, as UFC president Dana White likes to say after huffing gas? Well, she could have a solid argument for being the biggest UFC star that the UFC has right now. Although it should be mentioned that UFC 170′s live gate of $1,558,870 fell well below expectations.
And so, 340k buys represents a new high-water mark, which only a small handful of UFC PPVs will be able to clear this year. Most likely, the buyrate trend will continue to drop as the UFC shifts its attention to small-scale international shows, while the burned-out North American fanbase is content to watch the UFC’s free FOX/FS1/FS2 events and skip the ones that cost $55 simply because there’s a belt on the line in the main event.
The next UFC pay-per-view is UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira on April 26th — a light-heavyweight title fight that will probably pull around 300k buys. That’s just the way it is, now.
Joe Rogan often wins the unofficial “MMA announcer of the year” award each year. One guy who won’t be voting for him in 2014 is Tyron Woodley. Speaking to MMA Mental (h/t MMA Fighting), Woodley slammed Rogan for his “horrendous commentary” at UFC 171. “It’s almost like they’re punishing you for training hard,” Woodley said. ”They’re punishing […]
Joe Rogan often wins the unofficial “MMA announcer of the year” award each year. One guy who won’t be voting for him in 2014 is Tyron Woodley. Speaking to MMA Mental (h/t MMA Fighting), Woodley slammed Rogan for his “horrendous commentary” at UFC 171. “It’s almost like they’re punishing you for training hard,” Woodley said. ”They’re punishing […]
(“OH MY GOD CONDIT’S GOT THE PRESSURE-POINT VICE GRIPS! CAN HE FINISH FROM HERE, JOE? JOE!? PULL YOUR PANTS UP AND ANSWER ME!!!” / Photo via Getty)
Joe Rogan performs the job of MMA color-commentator better than virtually anybody else in the world. From his ability to explain complex grappling concepts on the fly, to his honest criticism of fighters, cornermen, officials, and ice-buckets when they deserve it, Rogan does a lot behind the broadcast booth that’s admirable. And for a guy who makes his living as a comedian, he shows remarkable restraint in not turning his commentary gigs into a constant yuk-fest.
UFC 171 gave us a pretty good example of this during the Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley fight, which Condit was a clear favorite going into — in terms of betting odds as well as the UFC’s future plans. But even as Woodley dominated the majority of the match, it seemed like Joe Rogan was instead doing a play-by-play about how Woodley was gassing out because he’s too muscular. Woodley, as you can imagine, wasn’t too impressed afterwards. Here’s what he said about Rogan’s commentary in an interview with mmamental (via MMAFighting):
“It’s almost like they’re punishing you for training hard. They’re punishing you for being physically fit. I think Joe Rogan is horrendous for his commentary that he did for that fight. Everything was, ‘Oh, Tyron threw a hard bomb but Carlos took it. He’s got such a great chin. Oh, Tyron has a takedown. Look at Carlos. He’s doing the mission impossible guard [mission control].’ Everything that I did he was leaning it towards the credit of Carlos Condit.
(“OH MY GOD CONDIT’S GOT THE PRESSURE-POINT VICE GRIPS! CAN HE FINISH FROM HERE, JOE? JOE!? PULL YOUR PANTS UP AND ANSWER ME!!!” / Photo via Getty)
Joe Rogan performs the job of MMA color-commentator better than virtually anybody else in the world. From his ability to explain complex grappling concepts on the fly, to his honest criticism of fighters, cornermen, officials, and ice-buckets when they deserve it, Rogan does a lot behind the broadcast booth that’s admirable. And for a guy who makes his living as a comedian, he shows remarkable restraint in not turning his commentary gigs into a constant yuk-fest.
UFC 171 gave us a pretty good example of this during the Carlos Condit vs. Tyron Woodley fight, which Condit was a clear favorite going into — in terms of betting odds as well as the UFC’s future plans. But even as Woodley dominated the majority of the match, it seemed like Joe Rogan was instead doing a play-by-play about how Woodley was gassing out because he’s too muscular. Woodley, as you can imagine, wasn’t too impressed afterwards. Here’s what he said about Rogan’s commentary in an interview with mmamental (via MMAFighting):
“It’s almost like they’re punishing you for training hard. They’re punishing you for being physically fit. I think Joe Rogan is horrendous for his commentary that he did for that fight. Everything was, ‘Oh, Tyron threw a hard bomb but Carlos took it. He’s got such a great chin. Oh, Tyron has a takedown. Look at Carlos. He’s doing the mission impossible guard [mission control].’ Everything that I did he was leaning it towards the credit of Carlos Condit.
“I think sometimes when you watch a fight and you listen to the commentary you can kind of veer the spectators, and hopefully not the UFC, in directions it shouldn’t be going…
“I was not wincing,” says Woodley. “I was not in any harm or any danger at any point in the fight. My cardio felt great and it was even in my gameplan to increase the level in the third round. I wasn’t even at full speed. People say, ‘He started off hard! He started off in a full sprint!’ I didn’t even start off in a full sprint. If they think that’s a full sprint for me, then I’m happy with it because they haven’t seen a full sprint yet.”
1) If you’re calling a match between two fighters, it’s natural to focus attention on the one who is more famous. On Saturday night, that was Condit. This isn’t necessarily a flaw in Joe Rogan’s performance, it’s a byproduct of all broadcast news-delivery: You lead with the person/thing that viewers are tuning in for.
2) If a fighter is dominating a match, it’s also natural to suggest ways in which the fight might actually be more competitive than it looks. Blowouts aren’t dramatic; fans don’t like them. Woodley kicked ass in round one, so in order to hold viewers’ attention, Rogan created a narrative in which Condit was staging a comeback. That might seem like bias — especially if you’re Tyron Woodley — but it’s also what a good storyteller does. Joe Rogan is simply doing his job.
Do you agree with that justification? Or does Rogan need to be more fair and balanced, no matter who’s fighting or winning?
“Started drinking Bacardi even before I was associated with them,” quipped the French-Canadian superstar to a crowded room of VIP guests and media members.
The event was representative of the new era in St-Pierre’s life: Instead of being at the beck and call of a promoter, GSP is proud of the fact that he can leave his cell phone unattended for a week. Defending his UFC title was a Sisyphean task; St-Pierre claims his mental health deteriorated under the numerous demands being a professional fighter placed him under.
“Started drinking Bacardi even before I was associated with them,” quipped the French-Canadian superstar to a crowded room of VIP guests and media members.
The event was representative of the new era in St-Pierre’s life: Instead of being at the beck and call of a promoter, GSP is proud of the fact that he can leave his cell phone unattended for a week. Defending his UFC title was a Sisyphean task; St-Pierre claims his mental health deteriorated under the numerous demands being a professional fighter placed him under.
(GSP, living every retiree’s dream. Photo via TerezOwens. Click for full-size version.)
From the post-fight presser for UFC 167 all the way through to the Bacardi event, St-Pierre has been on a roll when it comes to shattering the sacred cows of the MMA game. When he criticized the lack of effective drug testing in the sport, many media members privately supported St-Pierre. It’s strange that journalists don’t use their platforms to illustrate the areas of MMA that need to be fixed, though.
While it’s subtle, St-Pierre has also been careful to let the media know that he usually deals with UFC majority owner Lorenzo Fertitta (“Lorenzo is the boss”) rather than president and front man Dana White. White’s profanity-laced rhetoric often makes him a prominent lighting rod for criticism. Yet he owns just 9 percent of Zuffa, and as St-Pierre alludes to, major decisions are either made or sanctioned by Fertitta.
A lifelong fan of Mike Tyson, St-Pierre was wearing a ‘Roots of Fight’ Mike Tyson sweatshirt. In his autobiography, Tyson reflected about the tumultuous journey of ups and downs that left him contemplating retirement just after his fight with Pinklon Thomas in 1987.
“I should have retired then, but I didn’t have control of my own life,” claimed Tyson.
By comparison, when an athlete like Michael Jordan succeeds in a major sports league like the NBA, the narrative in the news and among fans is that Jordan’s own talent was the deciding factor. Certainly, Jordan’s teammates, coaches, the team owner and assorted NBA officials play a role, but they don’t get equal billing. In MMA, the fighters are often regarded as chattels who owe their existence to the promoter’s generosity — a situation that the lack of competing promotions and absence of federal legislation to protect MMA fighters continues to reinforce.
When St-Pierre was done with his media interviews at the Bacardi event, he gave a speech and opted to mingle throughout the crowd. Instead of being able to easily circulate, he was swarmed by a frenzied crowd. Some were probably not even MMA fans — just ordinary people drawn into the swirling vortex of celebrity obsession who needed fodder for their own social media newsfeeds.
St-Pierre might have been uncomfortable with the crush of the crowd, but he is highly attuned to the reality that his relevance is at a major peak. After all, as much as Dana White talks up Ronda Rousey as “the biggest star we’ve ever had,” Rousey has little chance of replicating the pay-per-view numbers that GSP pulled throughout his years as the UFC’s welterweight champion.
The Bacardi campaign has a line fitting for the fight game, “Know your limits.” In the prime of his career, Mike Tyson was a relentless alcoholic who did everything to excess until it blew up in his face. It’s part of Tyson’s legacy as a fighter that he stayed around boxing too long and experienced losses to subpar opponents near the end of his career.
Does Georges St-Pierre know his limits? Or will he live out the tragic arc that so many fighters before him have endured?
I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.
Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.
It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.
I have a feeling that most of you degenerate gamblers are going to take this weekend off. And hey, that’s a very logical decision. The TUF: China Finale is packed to the brim with squash matches and unknown prospects, and if you’re the type of person who doesn’t normally watch Bellator or Titan FC, it would be an incredibly stupid risk to throw money down on fighters you barely recognize.
Which is exactly what makes a “Gambling Addiction Enabler” for this weekend’s fights so appropriate. With the UFC hosting an obscure Fight Pass card — and Bellator and Titan FC featuring guys you’ve heard of but aren’t necessarily invested in — only the most hardcore MMA fans and the most hopeless gambling addicts are going to be risking their money on this weekend’s fights. If you fall into either category, we’d be letting you down if we decided not to share our rock-solid (*tries to stop laughing*) gambling advice with you.
It’s hard to disagree with the odds here. Kim has not only faced tougher competition, but he also has the advantage of fighting on his home continent; not exactly a frivolous observation, as Kim himself would be quick to point out. A straight bet on Kim won’t yield an impressive return, but it does make for a low-risk parlay addition.
On paper, Christian M’Pumbu is exactly the type of fighter who Rampage Jackson should have zero problems with — he’s as pure of a kickboxer as you’ll find in a major MMA promotion, who would rather stand and trade haymakers than clinch against the cage. Yet after watching Jackson’s promotional debut against Joey Beltran, Rampage at -450 is not even remotely worth the risk of an upset. Especially when you consider that Bellator is sort-of hoping for Rampage vs. King Mo in the next round of this tournament, which obviously means that at least one of them is destined to lose on Friday night. M’Pumbu at anything over +450 would be worth a $5 for shiggles, but at +360? Move along, people; this fight is in Stay the Hell Away From territory.
I’m surprised that Shawn Jordan isn’t a bigger favorite. Jordan has the better record, the more impressive resume, and better wrestling; he should have zero problems with Matt Mitrione. Honestly, the only advantage that I’m giving to Mitrione is that his body isn’t covered in blatant scratch worthy of a spot on our ugliest tattoos in MMA list. Seriously, person who drew Jordan’s chest/shoulder piece, what the hell?
TUF: China Finale: Hatsu Hioki (-400) vs. Ivan Menjivar (+280) Bellator 110: Mike Richman (-250) vs. Des Green (+190) Bellator 110: Will Martinez (+280) vs. Goiti Yamauchi (-370)
Titan FC 27: Bryan Goldsby (+240) vs. Kevin Croom (-300)
And now we’re entering the squash match portion of the upcoming bouts. Don’t be fooled by Hatsu Hioki’s three-fight losing streak — he has looked unstoppable on Asian soil. Add on that this fight is a must-win for him, and there’s no way that his hand isn’t getting raised on Friday. Over in Bellator, Mike Richman should prove too experienced and well-rounded for Team Bombsquad product Des Green. Goiti Yamauchi is a twenty-one year old grappling ace with thirteen of his sixteen career victories coming via submission — eleven of which coming in the first round — fighting an 8-2 curtain-jerker. The prop that this fight will last less than 1.5 rounds is definitely worth exploring here. Meanwhile, in Titan FC, Kevin “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly” [Author Note: Not sure if nickname is awesome or terrible] Croom is not only also a fantastic grappler, but he also benefits from fighting a 17-15 journeyman with seven career submission losses. Easy call.
Both Phan and Lee are coming off of losses, but Phan is favored here because he’s an Asian (sort-of) fighting in Asia, I guess. Except, you know, Phan grew up in California, so there is no “fighting on his home continent” advantage here, and Lee has proven that he can win in Asia at this level with his victory over Kid Yamamoto at UFC 144. At +145, a straight bet won’t provide a ton of bang for your buck, but Lee makes for a relatively low risk parlay addition.
“Hey, I’ve actually heard of this guy, so he will win” isn’t exactly a smart betting strategy. This is especially true with Mikhail Zayats; he has won eight of his last ten fights — including a first-round TKO over Babalu — and those two losses come to Emanuel Newton and Vinny Magalhaes. Bessette’s resume is slightly less impressive, but he’s an attractive pick simply due to how inconsistent Diego Nunes has looked recently. Nunes has lost three of his last four fights, and is coming off of a quick, nasty knockout loss to Patricio Pitbull at Bellator 99. Bessette isn’t worth a spot in your parlay, but a straight bet on him is far from the worst way you could spend $5 this weekend.
Stay the Hell Away From
Titan FC 27: Matt Riddle (-180) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150)
Remember our “Who Is the Biggest Waste of Potential in MMA History” roundtable? You can pretty much copy and paste what ReX13 wrote about BJ Penn here for my analysis of this fight. On paper, yes, this is Riddle’s fight to lose. But after a year that has consisted of retirement, unretirement, pulling out of fights, and getting fired from Bellator for Riddle, betting on “Deep Waters” this Friday is just as risky as betting on a post-Sonnen Paulo Filho: He may fight like the elite fighter he is, or he may put in the bare minimum effort needed to collect his paycheck, or he may decide to pull out of the fight at the last minute because, you know, whatever. The bottom line here is that this fight is a crap shoot, and neither fighter offers an attractive enough return on your investment to justify the risk. Just say no.
Suggested Stakes for a $50 Wager
The Ultra-Conservative Approach:
$25 on Kim+Hioki+Ricci parlay (returns $20.44) $20 on Richman+Yamauchi parlay (returns $15.57) $5 on Shawn Jordan (returns $3.70)
In the likely event that all three bets pay off, you’ll earn a total of $39.71 for your efforts.
The Live Dangerously Approach:
$20 on Richman+Yamauchi+Jordan parlay (returns $41.91) $20 on Kim+Zayats parlay (returns $53.29) $5 on Matt Bessette (returns $14.25) $5 on Croom+Lee parlay (returns $11.33)
I once read that the biggest mistake that novice gamblers make is betting not to lose; whether that’s a quote from a book about Nick the Greek or something I read off of the bathroom wall at a gas station casino is irrelevant. With a little luck, this parlay returns $120.78.
The “Whatever, It’s Mardi Gras #YOLO” Approach:
$25 on Hathaway+Bessette+Gurgel (returns $2,169.50) $20 on Lee+Zayats (returns $119.65) $5 on Matt Riddle (returns $2.78)
Semi-Related: It’s common for gambling addicts to find the rush of losing and trying to win back their losses more addictive than actually winning. I figured that was an appropriate disclaimer to use before casually pointing out that this strategy will return $2,291.93. Have a nice day.
