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UFC on Fox 6 is live tonight from Chicago, Ill. The stacked card is headlined by Demetrious Johnson defending his flyweight title for the first time against The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner John Dodson. Also featured on the care is Quinton “Ram…
UFC on Fox 6 is live tonight from Chicago, Ill.
The stacked card is headlined by Demetrious Johnson defending his flyweight title for the first time against The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner John Dodson.
Also featured on the care is Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in his last UFC fight against rising star Glover Teixeira.
Lightweights Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone will also go at it in a match with strong title implications.
Here is what to watch for in tonight’s fights.
Almost a year ago, the 125-pound flyweight division introduced itself to the UFC. The division saw plenty of high-energy fighters and technical, skill-heavy bouts. Critics enjoyed the fast-paced bouts but along the line, they also grew aware of the dur…
Almost a year ago, the 125-pound flyweight division introduced itself to the UFC. The division saw plenty of high-energy fighters and technical, skill-heavy bouts. Critics enjoyed the fast-paced bouts but along the line, they also grew aware of the durability of the fighters.
Unsurprisingly, the durability of the flyweights translated into a mere lack of finishing ability for some fans. At the center of the criticisms stood UFC flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, who many considered the league’s fastest fighter. Johnson possessed the speed in every aspect of his game, as he does at this very moment, and he also armed himself with a fast-acting submission arsenal to accompany his wrestling-heavy offense.
However, the lack of power always stood out for Johnson’s critics, as well as the flyweight division’s critics. With the lack of power and the lack of what others categorized as “finishes,” more of the division’s talents found themselves relegated to FX, Fuel TV and Facebook cards. Despite what they brought, the fans did not wish to throw down for them because the technical battles just didn’t appear worth the value of a UFC pay-per-view.
Hopefully after understanding this, you may comprehend why tones changed when commercials aired for Johnson’s first title defense against flyweight veteran and The Ultimate Fighter 14 bantamweight winner John “The Magician” Dodson, which comes tonight live from the United Center in Chicago, Ill.
If the strategic plan for global expansion centers around showcasing the best fighters in the sport, it doesn’t help the division to grow if the commercials make no mention of the featured division.
Remember UFC on Fox 5 last month? It dispelled the myth that lightweights could not draw crowds, and just one month later, Henderson not only awaits a UFC on Fox 7 title defense against former Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez, but also, many feel Henderson’s appearances on Fox will pay dividends to his rise in popularity and his worth as a pay-per-view draw.
Vocal supporters of the lighter weight classes agree to let them develop over time because of ideas like that of Johnson-Dodson headlining a Fox card. In the case of the lighter weight classes, speed and technical approaches come with the territory. However, as many pointed out once UFC on Fox 6 started getting promotional spots, no harm comes from promoting a division that honestly benefits from exposure.
Put the flyweights on Fox as the UFC will do with Johnson vs. Dodson, or put any of the lighter weight classes on Fox, for that matter, and it not only reaffirms the confidence in the lighter weights to deliver a great fight, but it also reasserts the intention behind putting the championship title fights on network TV, which just happens to fit in expertly with the UFC’s strategic plans for global expansion.
To understand the long-term benefits of featuring lesser-known champions on free TV, think back to what it did for Henderson, as well as heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez and former champion Junior dos Santos, when they signed on to fight on Fox.
Take those same results, and then try to say it can’t happen for Johnson or Dodson. The formula proves itself as simple, easy to implement as a marketing strategy and works wonders in expanding the product. Knowing that, the idea behind it helps explain why the UFC will benefit from featuring Johnson vs. Dodson on Fox before thinking about putting Johnson on pay-per-view.
For those still in need of help comprehending the idea, let us break it down to the basics.
Expose the reigning champion nobody knows about to the world, and the world will see what they can do. Let the world witness the fun that comes with seeing that specific champion in action, and with time, they will create a demand to put said champion on pay-per-view. Once they create demand, the UFC makes its money and continues to deliver on its promises to the fans of its product.
The company may struggle a bit in selling the lighter divisions, but then again, getting on network TV took a decade-long struggle, so the UFC can implement this strategy to help build the divisions and make money from its fights. As a vocal supporter of the divisions might say, nobody will ask “if” it will happen, because we know it will happen, and we will revel in our own excitement once the UFC officially confirms when it will happen.
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(“You are SO lucky I’m wearing shoes that restrict my movement to baby steps or I’d knock you out right here.” Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.)
All 22 fighters scheduled to compete on tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson card will be hitting the scales live from the Chicago Theatre in, you guessed it, Chicago starting at 5 p.m. EST. Luckily for you, we will be hosting a video of the weigh-ins RIGHT HERE. I know, right? The things we do to ensure that you guys are happy.
Anyway, the weigh-ins kick off in just a few minutes, so get in here for all the action!
(“You are SO lucky I’m wearing shoes that restrict my movement to baby steps or I’d knock you out right here.” Photo courtesy of MMAFighting.)
All 22 fighters scheduled to compete on tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Dodson card will be hitting the scales live from the Chicago Theatre in, you guessed it, Chicago starting at 5 p.m. EST. Luckily for you, we will be hosting a video of the weigh-ins RIGHT HERE. I know, right? The things we do to ensure that you guys are happy.
Anyway, the weigh-ins kick off in just a few minutes, so get in here for all the action!
Main Card:
Demetrious Johnson (125) vs. John Dodson (124)
Quinton Jackson (204) vs. Glover Teixeira (206)
Donald Cerrone (155) vs. Anthony Pettis (155)
Erik Koch (145) vs. Ricardo Lamas (145)
Preliminary Card:
T.J. Grant (155) vs. Matt Wiman (156)
Clay Guida (146) vs. Hatsu Hioki (146)
Ryan Bader (205) vs. Vladimir Matyushenko (205)
Shawn Jordan (251) vs. Mike Russow (256)
Pascal Krauss (171) vs. Mike Stumpf (170)
Rafael Natal (185) vs. Sean Spencer (186)
David Mitchell (171) vs. Simeon Thoresen (171)
On Saturday night, the UFC provides fans with their first Fox offering of the year. How will they follow up the critically acclaimed UFC on Fox 4 and UFC on Fox 5 events? By giving fans a title fight on free TV, as well as some can’t miss fights that f…
On Saturday night, the UFC provides fans with their first Fox offering of the year. How will they follow up the critically acclaimed UFC on Fox 4 and UFC on Fox 5 events? By giving fans a title fight on free TV, as well as some can’t miss fights that feature legendary talent.
Coming to us from the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, UFC on Fox 6 is a hotly-anticipated card that is headlined by a UFC flyweight championship fight between Demetrious Johnson and Ultimate Fighter winner John Dodson.
Also on the card is a stellar matchup between PRIDE legend Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and fast-rising prospect Glover Teixeira. There are also a pair of fights on the main card that have title implications in the featherweight and lightweight divisions.
Here’s a fan’s guide to that fight and to the rest of the card.
Finally, the UFC brings another free title fight to national television as two of the fastest men in the Octagon battle for the flyweight championship at UFC on Fox 6.This Saturday at the United Center in Chicago, Demetrious Johnson …
Finally, the UFC brings another free title fight to national television as two of the fastest men in the Octagon battle for the flyweight championship at UFC on Fox 6.
This Saturday at the United Center in Chicago, Demetrious Johnson will make his first 125-pound title defense against The Ultimate Fighter 14 winner John Dodson. Both men have significant speed, but the real battle may come down to Johnson’s wrestling vs. Dodson’s knockout power.
In the co-main event, the arguable “real star” of the show could be seeing his last UFC fight as MMA legend Quinton Jackson takes on Brazilian slugger Glover Teixeira.
Additional fireworks are guaranteed in the next match on the main card, as Donald Cerrone battles in a lightweight title eliminator against Anthony Pettis. Both men are two of the sport’s most exciting fighters and carry plenty of experience as former WEC champions.
Finally, featherweights Erik Koch and Ricardo Lamas will be making their case for title shots in the 145-pound division, as they’ll open the Fox broadcast on Jan. 26.
Read along with the B/R MMA team as Jonathan Snowden, Scott Harris, Sean Smith, John Heinis, Kyle Symes and McKinley Noble make their official main card predictions for UFC on Fox 6.
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics
The UFC flyweights comprise the smallest division — both in size, and in numbers — but they’ll get a prominent showcase this Saturday at UFC on FOX 6, as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. So how do Mighty Mouse and the Magician stack up against the rest of their 125-pound competition? Analyzing an entire UFC weight class with a point-in-time assessment allows us to see how fighters might perform against each other, even though they may not meet in the Octagon for a long time (if ever). And since every fight starts standing up, we’ll also start with striking.
The Analysis:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head-striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division, as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect which fighters connect with the most powerful strikes. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter has landed in their matches*, divided by the number of power head strikes landed to see who does the most damage per strike. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through UFC 155 on December 29th, 2012. Many of these fighters competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.
Now that we know how to interpret the chart, let’s see which fighters stand out…
(Click chart for full-size version. For previous Databombs, click here.)
By Reed Kuhn, @Fightnomics
The UFC flyweights comprise the smallest division — both in size, and in numbers — but they’ll get a prominent showcase this Saturday at UFC on FOX 6, as Demetrious Johnson defends his title against John Dodson. So how do Mighty Mouse and the Magician stack up against the rest of their 125-pound competition? Analyzing an entire UFC weight class with a point-in-time assessment allows us to see how fighters might perform against each other, even though they may not meet in the Octagon for a long time (if ever). And since every fight starts standing up, we’ll also start with striking.
The Analysis:
In order to understand standup striking performance, which is more multifaceted in MMA than it is in boxing, I need to boil down a few of the most important variables that determine success as a striker. These are fairly uncomplicated variables in isolation, but together they can summarize a fighter’s overall capabilities. Here, I’ve focused on three fundamental, offensive metrics:
Accuracy: I’ve used power head-striking accuracy (as opposed to body or leg strikes, or jabs to the head), where the average for UFC Flyweights is about 25%. Certainly, great strikers can attack the body and legs, but the most likely way to end a fight by strikes is by aiming at the head. The accuracy of the power head strike is a great indicator of a fighter’s striking prowess, and there’s a wide range within a single division, as we’ll see. This is the vertical axis, so more accurate fighters are higher in the graph.
Standup Striking Pace: Prior analysis reveals that outpacing your opponent is a key predictor of success, and certainly correlates with winning decisions as it reflects which fighter is dictating the pace of the fight. Here, I’ve used the total number of standup strikes thrown as a ratio to the same output from a fighter’s opponents. All strikes attempted from a standup position are counted, including body shots and leg kicks. This is the horizontal axis in the graph, and the average for the whole division must be 1, so fighters with superior pace appear further to the right.
Knockdown Rate: The objective of every strike thrown is to hurt your opponent, and knockdowns reflect which fighters connect with the most powerful strikes. I’ve used the total number of knockdowns a fighter has landed in their matches*, divided by the number of power head strikes landed to see who does the most damage per strike. The size of the bubble for a fighter indicates their relative knockdown rate; the bigger the bubble, the higher their knockdown rate. The very small bubbles indicate fighters who have yet to score a knockdown in their Zuffa fights.
* The data includes all UFC, WEC, and Strikeforce fights through UFC 155 on December 29th, 2012. Many of these fighters competed in other higher weight classes, but for the purposes of this analysis, that data was still included and analyzed.
Now that we know how to interpret the chart, let’s see which fighters stand out…
The Winners
Sniper Award: Louis Gaudinot landed 49% of his power head strikes in his two UFC appearances, while his most recent slugfest earned him Fight of the Night honors against John Lineker.
Energizer Bunny Award: Southpaw Brazilian John Lineker has outpaced his opponents by 60% while standing.
Biggest Ball(s) Award: John Dodson has landed 3 knockdowns in his 26 minutes of UFC action, finishing two fights by TKO. Given that size does matter in MMA when it comes to knockouts, it’s not surprising that a lot of flyweights haven’t scored a knockdown yet. But statistically speaking, Dodson is definitely punching above his weight.
Swing and a Miss Award: Newcomer Phil Harris landed just 1 of his 17 attempted power head strikes in his debut loss, resulting in his division lowest 6% accuracy.
The Losers
Smallest Ball(s): the Flyweights get a pass here, as 10 of 14 fighters have yet to record a knockdown. With more cage time, we’ll see how this shakes out.
Starnes Award for Inaction: Jussier Da Silva was severely outworked in his UFC debut, barely attempting one-third as many strikes as his opponent, John Dodson. Not surprisingly, Jussier has never recorded a (T)KO victory in his 14 career wins.
Introduced barely a year ago, Flyweights haven’t had a lot of cage time yet, and I do expect these numbers to shift with more fights recorded. And keep in mind that that caliber of opponents also influences a fighter’s performance, so the “MMA Math” trap also applies here. This Saturday we’ll see if Demetrious Johnson’s experience against top tier opponents in larger weight classes will allow him to outstrike John Dodson, the division’s current best-in-class striker.
Next week, we’ll look at the featherweights in time to see how Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar stack up with the rest of their division. Predictions?
For more on the science and stats of MMA, follow @Fightnomics on Twitter or on Facebook. See more MMA analytical research at www.fightnomics.com.