UFC on Versus 6 Live Blog: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson Updates

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Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson will be a televised fight on the UFC on Versus 6 card.This is the UFC on Versus 6 live blog for Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson, the main event bantamweight title fight of tonight’s UFC Live card from the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

Cruz (18-1, 1-0 UFC) defends his bantamweight title for the fourth time. His first three successful defenses were decision wins over Joseph Benavidez, Scott Jorgensen and Urijah Faber. The win over Jorgensen came at the final WEC event, after which Cruz’s WEC title became a UFC belt. Johnson (9-1, 2-0 UFC) has won three straight, including a somewhat controversial unanimous decision win over former champion Miguel Torres at UFC 130 in May. That win got him a shot at Cruz’s belt.

The live blog is below.




Round 1: They’re saying this may be the fastest-paced fight in the the history of the UFC, and it’s hard to argue. It will be hard to keep up. Both fighters throw some kicks, and Johnson comes forward as Cruz backs up. Johnson shoots for a takedown 50 seconds in, but Cruz stuffs it and lands some shots. Cruz then gets off a nice throw as Johnson hits the canvas, and Cruz works to the top and tries to pass to side control. Johnson defending nicely so far as he looks to escape. Johnson continues to defend and gets to half guard, then butterfly guard. Finally, Johnson quickly gets out and back to his feet. Head kick from Johnson is caught by Cruz and Cruz takes the fight to the ground. Short-lived leg lock from Johnson turns into an escape from Cruz and side control. Back on the feet, Johnson lands a short takedown against the fence, but Cruz gets back up quickly and Johnson ties him up with a clinch, looking for short knees and elbows. Cruz ducks under nicely and gets out, but Johnson makes him pay with a couple shots as they break. Nice kick from Cruz. It’s a close first round, but it’s a round for the champ – 10-9 Cruz.

Round 2:
Johnson comes forward very quickly again, and Cruz has to tie him up and it leads to a good takedown. Cruz has Johnson backed against the fence. As Johnson gets back up, Cruz lands a nice knee to the head. But Johnson shakes it off and pushes Cruz’s back to the fence. Another good knee from Cruz on the break. High kick from Cruz misses, and one from Johnson is blocked. Johnson shoots quickly, but Cruz stuffs it and we trade positions on the fence. They trade knees in the clinch on the fence. Halfway through, it’s another fast-paced and close round. Johnson drops down for a takedown, but it’s not there. Cruz just misses a big knee, and they split apart. Johnson lands a nice right, then comes with a flying knee that just misses, then a head kick that just misses. Good knee from Cruz, and Johnson shoots for a takedown that is mostly stuffed. Cruz then gets a soft takedown on the fence, and Johnson goes into butterfly guard. Cruz isn’t doing much from the top, but it probably gives him the round. We’ll give Round 2 to Cruz, 10-9.

Round 3:
Good kick from Cruz, but Johnson still comes forward and throws a kick of his own. Nice right-left from Johnson inside. Cruz throws a jab, then goes for a takedown that Johnson stops. But Cruz ties him up, then throws a gorgeous suplex. Cruz takes Johnson’s back and flattens Johnson out. He’s got a right arm under and is looking for a rear naked choke to end it. He’s got it, both palms clenched together. But Johnson gets out, and Cruz gets the hold back immediately, then tries to turn it to a neck crank. But miraculously, Johnson escapes, gets to his feet, and gets off some offense along the fence. Cruz looks tired from the choke, but with 1:40 left, he shoots and gets another takedown and settles into Johnson’s butterfly guard on the fence. We’ve seen this spot before, and Cruz has done very little with the position. Johnson will look to wall walk back up. Crauz works some minor ground and pound and keeps Johnson pinned down. Finally, with 20 seconds left, Johnson gets back up. They trade some knees to the body along the fence as the round closes. It’s a 10-9 round for Cruz as we move into the championship rounds.

Round 4:
Cruz has been this deep before. Johnson has not. He looks fresh as ever, though. Maybe fresher than Cruz. Inside leg kicks land for each. Spinning kick from Johnson misses. Looping left grazes Johnson, and he follows with a leg kick. They trade jabs and uppercuts that mostly just miss. Johnson appears to sting Cruz with a left, but Cruz moves in for a takedown along the fence – and gets it again. More butterfly guard for Johnson against the fence. Johnson continues to defend well from here, but as Cruz tries to pass, it is able to get his left leg out and gets to full mount. Johnson is holding on to Cruz to defend, and Cruz isn’t doing much with the position. Johnson quickly gets back to guard. Johnson gets back up with 90 seconds left and pushes forward look ing for some hands to the face. Cruz takes a deep breath with a minute left, and then is nipped by a Johnson right. They clinch up again, but Cruz bullies his way to half guard on the mat. When Johnson powers up, Cruz lands a nice kick and a punch, and Johnson just misses a couple shots as the round closes. It’s another 10-9 round for Cruz, and we have him up 40-36 going to the final round.

Round 5:
Johnson comes hard to open, and JUST misses a big head kick that had all kinds of bad intentions. After a short potential flurry of just-misses, Cruz ties him up again, then lands another big suplex that might have been better than his first one that came in the third round. Johnson works to get back to full guard, and he gets there. Cruz tries to work some elbows from up top and shots to the body. The referee tells them to stay busy, and Johnson works back over to the cage to try to wall walk. Cruz is keeping him down, but halfway through Johnson gets back up. He has a half-round to land a knockout punch or a submission, is what it comes down to. And he does land a couple uppercuts and a kick as they break. But Cruz is like the mothership in “Independence Day”: Target remains. Another takedown from Cruz, but Mighty Mouse pops back up and looks for a tie up. But Cruz throws him again. Cruz has to survive 90 seconds to retain, and Johnson needs to swing for the home run ball. He comes forward, Cruz ducks under and shoots for an easy takedown. He then quickly passes and gets to full mount with 50 seconds left. He looks for Johnson’s back and Cruz is looking for a rear naked choke to end it. But Johnson gets out, and Cruz gets a knee in as they break taht seems to hurt. Cruz gets one final takedown to end things. We have it 10-9 for Cruz and 50-45 for Cruz in the fight. We might hear a 49-46, but this should be fairly unanimous and a sweep or near sweep for the champion.

Result: Dominick Cruz def. Demetrious Johnson, unanimous decision (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)

“I’ve been putting in a lot of work, and it was a tough fight,” Cruz told Joe Rogan after the fight. “The kid’s got a sick pace, so I had to outwrestle him. He didn’t surprise me. I was ready for a wicked grind, and a wicked pace. You’ve got to be able to switch up – you can’t fight everyone the same. I was looking for the finish – I had the choke in twice, and he toughed it out. He was gurgling and he just toughed it out, but that’s what you do for title fights.”

 

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Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson will be a televised fight on the UFC on Versus 6 card.This is the UFC on Versus 6 live blog for Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson, the main event bantamweight title fight of tonight’s UFC Live card from the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

Cruz (18-1, 1-0 UFC) defends his bantamweight title for the fourth time. His first three successful defenses were decision wins over Joseph Benavidez, Scott Jorgensen and Urijah Faber. The win over Jorgensen came at the final WEC event, after which Cruz’s WEC title became a UFC belt. Johnson (9-1, 2-0 UFC) has won three straight, including a somewhat controversial unanimous decision win over former champion Miguel Torres at UFC 130 in May. That win got him a shot at Cruz’s belt.

The live blog is below.




Round 1: They’re saying this may be the fastest-paced fight in the the history of the UFC, and it’s hard to argue. It will be hard to keep up. Both fighters throw some kicks, and Johnson comes forward as Cruz backs up. Johnson shoots for a takedown 50 seconds in, but Cruz stuffs it and lands some shots. Cruz then gets off a nice throw as Johnson hits the canvas, and Cruz works to the top and tries to pass to side control. Johnson defending nicely so far as he looks to escape. Johnson continues to defend and gets to half guard, then butterfly guard. Finally, Johnson quickly gets out and back to his feet. Head kick from Johnson is caught by Cruz and Cruz takes the fight to the ground. Short-lived leg lock from Johnson turns into an escape from Cruz and side control. Back on the feet, Johnson lands a short takedown against the fence, but Cruz gets back up quickly and Johnson ties him up with a clinch, looking for short knees and elbows. Cruz ducks under nicely and gets out, but Johnson makes him pay with a couple shots as they break. Nice kick from Cruz. It’s a close first round, but it’s a round for the champ – 10-9 Cruz.

Round 2:
Johnson comes forward very quickly again, and Cruz has to tie him up and it leads to a good takedown. Cruz has Johnson backed against the fence. As Johnson gets back up, Cruz lands a nice knee to the head. But Johnson shakes it off and pushes Cruz’s back to the fence. Another good knee from Cruz on the break. High kick from Cruz misses, and one from Johnson is blocked. Johnson shoots quickly, but Cruz stuffs it and we trade positions on the fence. They trade knees in the clinch on the fence. Halfway through, it’s another fast-paced and close round. Johnson drops down for a takedown, but it’s not there. Cruz just misses a big knee, and they split apart. Johnson lands a nice right, then comes with a flying knee that just misses, then a head kick that just misses. Good knee from Cruz, and Johnson shoots for a takedown that is mostly stuffed. Cruz then gets a soft takedown on the fence, and Johnson goes into butterfly guard. Cruz isn’t doing much from the top, but it probably gives him the round. We’ll give Round 2 to Cruz, 10-9.

Round 3:
Good kick from Cruz, but Johnson still comes forward and throws a kick of his own. Nice right-left from Johnson inside. Cruz throws a jab, then goes for a takedown that Johnson stops. But Cruz ties him up, then throws a gorgeous suplex. Cruz takes Johnson’s back and flattens Johnson out. He’s got a right arm under and is looking for a rear naked choke to end it. He’s got it, both palms clenched together. But Johnson gets out, and Cruz gets the hold back immediately, then tries to turn it to a neck crank. But miraculously, Johnson escapes, gets to his feet, and gets off some offense along the fence. Cruz looks tired from the choke, but with 1:40 left, he shoots and gets another takedown and settles into Johnson’s butterfly guard on the fence. We’ve seen this spot before, and Cruz has done very little with the position. Johnson will look to wall walk back up. Crauz works some minor ground and pound and keeps Johnson pinned down. Finally, with 20 seconds left, Johnson gets back up. They trade some knees to the body along the fence as the round closes. It’s a 10-9 round for Cruz as we move into the championship rounds.

Round 4:
Cruz has been this deep before. Johnson has not. He looks fresh as ever, though. Maybe fresher than Cruz. Inside leg kicks land for each. Spinning kick from Johnson misses. Looping left grazes Johnson, and he follows with a leg kick. They trade jabs and uppercuts that mostly just miss. Johnson appears to sting Cruz with a left, but Cruz moves in for a takedown along the fence – and gets it again. More butterfly guard for Johnson against the fence. Johnson continues to defend well from here, but as Cruz tries to pass, it is able to get his left leg out and gets to full mount. Johnson is holding on to Cruz to defend, and Cruz isn’t doing much with the position. Johnson quickly gets back to guard. Johnson gets back up with 90 seconds left and pushes forward look ing for some hands to the face. Cruz takes a deep breath with a minute left, and then is nipped by a Johnson right. They clinch up again, but Cruz bullies his way to half guard on the mat. When Johnson powers up, Cruz lands a nice kick and a punch, and Johnson just misses a couple shots as the round closes. It’s another 10-9 round for Cruz, and we have him up 40-36 going to the final round.

Round 5:
Johnson comes hard to open, and JUST misses a big head kick that had all kinds of bad intentions. After a short potential flurry of just-misses, Cruz ties him up again, then lands another big suplex that might have been better than his first one that came in the third round. Johnson works to get back to full guard, and he gets there. Cruz tries to work some elbows from up top and shots to the body. The referee tells them to stay busy, and Johnson works back over to the cage to try to wall walk. Cruz is keeping him down, but halfway through Johnson gets back up. He has a half-round to land a knockout punch or a submission, is what it comes down to. And he does land a couple uppercuts and a kick as they break. But Cruz is like the mothership in “Independence Day”: Target remains. Another takedown from Cruz, but Mighty Mouse pops back up and looks for a tie up. But Cruz throws him again. Cruz has to survive 90 seconds to retain, and Johnson needs to swing for the home run ball. He comes forward, Cruz ducks under and shoots for an easy takedown. He then quickly passes and gets to full mount with 50 seconds left. He looks for Johnson’s back and Cruz is looking for a rear naked choke to end it. But Johnson gets out, and Cruz gets a knee in as they break taht seems to hurt. Cruz gets one final takedown to end things. We have it 10-9 for Cruz and 50-45 for Cruz in the fight. We might hear a 49-46, but this should be fairly unanimous and a sweep or near sweep for the champion.

Result: Dominick Cruz def. Demetrious Johnson, unanimous decision (50-45, 49-46, 50-45)

“I’ve been putting in a lot of work, and it was a tough fight,” Cruz told Joe Rogan after the fight. “The kid’s got a sick pace, so I had to outwrestle him. He didn’t surprise me. I was ready for a wicked grind, and a wicked pace. You’ve got to be able to switch up – you can’t fight everyone the same. I was looking for the finish – I had the choke in twice, and he toughed it out. He was gurgling and he just toughed it out, but that’s what you do for title fights.”

 

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UFC Live: Cruz Vs. Johnson Main Card Weigh in Video

(Props to MMAWeekly.com

Before you even ask, yes, Anthony Johnson did make weight, and he seemed about as excited to do so as any fighter I’ve ever seen. Joe Rogan informed us that the Struve/Barry fight is “the biggest height discrepancy for a fight ever,” which seems about right if you don’t consider half of Minowaman’s fight career. Either way, if there was a category for stare-down of the year, I’m pretty sure theirs would be the front runner.

All fighters made weight except for Byron Bloodworth, who weighed in at 138 lbs. and was originally given 2 hours to drop the necessary 2 pounds for his bout with Mike Easton. The decision was quickly reversed and Byron was allowed to keep the additional weight without penalty for coming in as such a late replacement. Check out the full weigh in results after the jump.

-Danga 

(Props to MMAWeekly.com

Before you even ask, yes, Anthony Johnson did make weight, and he seemed about as excited to do so as any fighter I’ve ever seen. Joe Rogan informed us that the Struve/Barry fight is “the biggest height discrepancy for a fight ever,” which seems about right if you don’t consider half of Minowaman’s fight career. Either way, if there was a category for stare-down of the year, I’m pretty sure theirs would be the front runner.

All fighters made weight except for Byron Bloodworth, who weighed in at 138 lbs. and was originally given 2 hours to drop the necessary 2 pounds for his bout with Mike Easton. The decision was quickly reversed and Byron was allowed to keep the additional weight without penalty for coming in as such a late replacement. Check out the full weigh in results after the jump.

-Danga 

Main Bouts (On Versus):
-Dominick Cruz (135) vs. Demetrious Johnson (135)
-Pat Barry (243) vs. Stefan Struve (261)
-Anthony Johnson (171) vs. Charlie Brenneman (171)
-Mac Danzig (155) vs. Matt Wiman (156)

Preliminary Bouts:
-Yves Edwards (155) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (155)
-Michael Johnson (156) vs. Paul Sass (155)
-Mike Easton (135) vs. Byron Bloodworth (138)*
-Shane Roller (156) vs. T.J. Grant (155)
-Josh Neer (171) vs. Keith Wisniewski (170)
-Walel Watson (134.5) vs. Joseph Sandoval (134)

Eight Ways of Looking at UFC on Versus 6

Filed under: UFCWe’re just a few hours away from the UFC on Versus 6 event, and there are plenty of questions, concerns, and issues to sort through. Here, in no particular order, are a few of them.

I. Will this be the breakthrough fight Dominick Cruz …

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We’re just a few hours away from the UFC on Versus 6 event, and there are plenty of questions, concerns, and issues to sort through. Here, in no particular order, are a few of them.

I. Will this be the breakthrough fight Dominick Cruz needs?
He’s the UFC’s least celebrated champion, mostly because mainstream fans haven’t seen enough of him yet. The UFC seems to think he can’t sell pay-per-views without Urijah Faber’s help, so Cruz gets stuck on a cable TV fight card smack in between two pay-per-view event weekends. It’s not the best coming out party you could hope for, but a lot depends on what he can make of it. If Cruz can put on another of his frantic, indefatigable performances — and this time, maybe even finish his opponent — he might finally get the attention he deserves. If he simply dominates Demetrious Johnson for the full five rounds, well, it’s hard to make much of a highlight reel out of that.

II. This fight is more important for Pat Barry than it is for
Stefan Struve. Both are coming off losses and could really use a rebound win, but they’re not exactly in the same boat. Barry is 32 years old — nine years older than Struve — and has yet to string two victories together in the UFC. Ever since his debut he’s followed a win one, lose one pattern, usually beating the lesser-knowns and then losing the big ones, which doesn’t exactly impress the bosses. To further up the stakes, he’s coming off his first ever knockout loss. Though he previously said it had helped remove his fear of the KO, that’s the kind of thing that has been known to mess with a man’s mind. Now that he knows what it’s like to be the one waking up on his back, will he still feel like wading into those striking exchanges with the much larger Struve? Not that either of them would like to lose two straight, but Barry’s career has much less time left on the clock. Maybe Struve can wait, but Barry needs to make it happen now.

III. Who hypes the hype-man? If the name Mike Easton sounds familiar, it might be because you know him as the guy who’s always standing over Dominick Cruz’s shoulder, reminding him and everyone within shouting distance who the champ is. I admit, the man’s enthusiasm is infectious. We could all use a guy like him to pump up our egos and get us through a tough day. But now that he’s on the same card as Cruz, and getting back into action for the first time since 2009, who’s going to do the shouting? Probably still Easton, actually. He’ll just get to do it from inside the cage this time.

IV. Does
Charlie Brenneman have a “Rocky story” sequel in him? “The Spaniard” got to be the hero when he stepped up on short notice and derailed Rick Story’s hype train, but yesterday’s glory fades quickly in this business. The Anthony Johnson fight is tougher because a) Brenneman’s no longer in a situation where he has nothing to lose, and b) “Rumble” has the exact combination of wrestling skills and knockout power that could prove to be a nightmare for a fight like Brenneman. This one may not follow a movie script outline, but it’s no less important for his career.

V. The last time
Josh Neer won a fight in the UFC was February 7, 2009. He submitted Mac Danzig, then lost two straight and went on a tour of the minor leagues. Now the journeyman is back as a welterweight, and facing fellow wanderer Keith Wisniewski, who lost a decision in his sole UFC appearance back in 2005. It’s a situation where, if Neer can’t beat Wisniewski, he probably doesn’t belong in the UFC. Then again, you could say the same thing from the other side just as easily.

VI. Barry’s best chance against Struve?
Since getting eye-to-eye with the Dutchman requires a little outside help, Barry might have to target his legs, which are at least more within his range. Though certain judges remain convinced that leg kicks can’t end a fight, Barry actually has three career victories that way, including his brutal win over Dan Evensen in his UFC debut. I’m not sure I’d want to put all my faith into my ability to chop away at Struve’s thighs like a lumberjack going to work on an angry redwood, but what else can he do? Unless he gets a boost from the referee, reaching Struve’s chin won’t be so easy.

VII. Hey, remember that whole controversial stoppage thing from the first Mac Danzig-Matt Wiman fight? Yeah, well, now they’re meeting again to settle it, just shy of a year and a half later. Finally, you can stop losing sleep wondering how this match-up would have turned out. I know it was really eating at you.

VIII. Don’t forget about Paul Sass Not unless you want to get choked. The Brit has a nasty submissions game, and is particularly dangerous off his back. He’s also pretty creative about getting there, so it’s not simply a matter of deciding not to take him down. The youngster took a lot of people by surprise in his debut at UFC 120, so it should be interesting to see if Michael Johnson has done his homework on how to avoid getting entangled in that mess. You go to the mat with this man at your peril. And with the way he uses that triangle choke, you’re never truly safe from it until you’ve left the building.

 

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UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card Preliminary card (Facebook) Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval Pass Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski Welcome back to the UFC Neer. Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant Shane Roller Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth Pass Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval

Pass

Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski

Welcome back to the UFC Neer.

Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

Shane Roller

Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth

Pass

Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass

Johnson

Lightweight bout: Yves Edwards vs Rafaello Oliveira

I haven’t seen Oliveira, but I’ll pick Edwards in the dark here.

Main card

Lightweight bout: Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig

This is a rematch fight. Wiman won due to early ref stoppage last fight. I like Wiman to win this one. Very tough guy to finish. Well they both are really. A very compelling fight.

Welterweight bout: Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman

Although Brenneman beat Rick Story in a major upset. I think Anthony Johnson’s power and reach will be too much. Johnson.

Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve

Barry will probably chop the legs of Struve for three rounds and take a dec.

Bantamweight Championship: Dominick Cruz (champion) vs Demetrious Johnson

Dominick Cruz. I don’t think Johnson brings enough skill to the table to defeat Cruz. Not only is Cruz awesome on the feet, but he is equally a good wrestler.

UFC Live Cruz vs. Johnson Weigh-In Results: Both Bantamweights at 135

Filed under: UFCUFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and challenger Demetrious Johnson were both on weight for Saturday night’s title fight when they stepped on the scale Friday at the UFC Live weigh-in.

Both Cruz and Johnson weighed in right at th…

Filed under:

Dominick CruzUFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and challenger Demetrious Johnson were both on weight for Saturday night’s title fight when they stepped on the scale Friday at the UFC Live weigh-in.

Both Cruz and Johnson weighed in right at the bantamweight limit of 135 pounds.

The largely uneventful weigh-ins were lightened up by 5-foot-11 heavyweight Pat Barry standing on a stool to stare down with his 6-foot-11 opponent, Stefan Struve, as UFC announcer Joe Rogan declared, “This is the biggest height discrepancy for any UFC fight ever.”

One fighter missed weight: Byron Bloodworth, who took his bantamweight fight with Mike Easton on short notice this week, came in at 138 pounds.

Full results are below.

Main Card:
Dominick Cruz (135) vs. Demetrious Johnson (135)
Pat Barry (243) vs. Stefan Struve (261)
Charlie Brenneman (171) vs. Anthony Johnson (171)
Mac Danzig (155) vs. Matt Wiman (156)

Preliminary Card:
Yves Edwards (155) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (155)
Michael Johnson (156) vs. Paul Sass (155)
Byron Bloodworth (138) vs. Mike Easton (135)
T.J. Grant (155) vs. Shane Roller (156)
Josh Neer (171) vs. Keith Wisniewski (170)
Joseph Sandoval (134) vs. Walel Watson (134.5)

 

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UFC Live 6 Main Event Breakdown: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

Filed under: UFCIt’s been four years since a UFC championship has been defended on basic cable TV, a streak that will end on Saturday when bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz attempts to hold onto his belt and thwart the challenge of Demetrious Johnson…

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It’s been four years since a UFC championship has been defended on basic cable TV, a streak that will end on Saturday when bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz attempts to hold onto his belt and thwart the challenge of Demetrious Johnson.

The matchup, broadcast on Versus, likely boasts the speediest pair of fighters ever matched for a UFC title. Cruz is known for his fancy footwork and ability to weave in and out of striking distance, while the 5-foot-3 Johnson expertly navigates reach differentials with his own swift feet.

Cruz has been likened to Lyoto Machida in that he has an unconventional style that is relatively difficult to emulate and causes matchup difficulties. But apart from that similarity, their styles are actually quite different. While Machida tends to be very still, leans back out of punching range and waits to aggressively move in for a killshot, Cruz’s success is built on his endless movement, flurries of activity and ability to seamlessly transition from standup to takedowns.

It’s this unique set of skills that awaits Johnson as a challenge.

For at least part of it, Johnson is at least on paper, equipped. Much like Cruz, Johnson spent his high school years as a wrestler. That’s shown offensively, as Johnson has successfully completed 74 percent of his takedowns, according to FightMetric.

Defensively, however, Johnson has had some difficulties. He’s only stopped 46 percent of attempts against him. Given the frequency of Cruz’s takedown tries (he’s scored 31 takedowns in his last six fights), Johnson will have to do much better than that to give himself a chance to win.

On their feet, things get trickier. An interesting note about Cruz is that for all the accolades his striking receives, he’s not a particularly accurate striker. In fact, he’s below average when it comes to connection percentage, landing only 29 percent of his thrown strikes. That probably comes as a surprising statistic to many who constantly hear about Cruz’s standup brilliance.

In reality, Cruz’s striking success is based on volume and relentlessness above all else. Take his most recent title defense against Urijah Faber, for example. In the bout, Cruz out-landed Faber 97-53 overall. However, again, Cruz connected on just 39.4 percent of his strikes.

For all his activity, Cruz rarely offers opponents a chance to hit him in flush in return. Faber, for example, scored on just 32 percent of his shots. While Faber arguably landed the bigger shots, they were fewer and farther between, and Cruz’s offensive aggression makes an impact in the minds of the judges.

We’ve seen a trend recently of opponents trying to engage Cruz in tight. Since he’s not considered a power puncher, foes are willing to sit back, let the right-hander wade in towards them and fire back power shots as he steps into range. Both Faber and his Team Alpha Male teammate Joseph Benavidez employed that kind of strategy, often keying on his kicks.

For Johnson, it would be a bit trickier, because while he has the speed to employ it, he hasn’t shown the power to make that kind of attack the right one for him. That plan tends to be a risky proposition. When Cruz attacks first, there will usually be at least 3-4 strikes coming, and you might only get to fire off one in return. That almost ensures you’ll lose the flurry in the eyes of the judges (barring a knockdown or flush strike), and over the course of the round, those types of exchanges will add up in his favor, as they have over and over.

Johnson has so far in his UFC/WEC career flashed an impressive mix of striking accuracy and defense. He has successfully landed 51 percent of his strikes, and despite his usual reach disadvantage, he rarely gets hit. One interesting stat is that he only absorbs 0.98 strikes per minute, a number which would rank him No. 2 for best defense in the UFC if he had enough fights to qualify him for the leaderboard. By comparison, Cruz absorbs 1.75 strikes per minute.

Cruz is about a 5-to-1 favorite, and that number is a little too big for a fighter who goes to decisions so often. His game is well equipped to win either a striking, wrestling or ground battle, but he’s never shown the ability to overwhelm a foe except in volume. Johnson is one of the few bantamweights in the world who may be faster than Cruz and can match his gas tank. Because of that, I expect this fight to be more competitive than the line indicates.

The key factor in this bout may not end up being speed or striking, but Cruz’s takedown defense. Johnson’s wrestling doesn’t get a ton of notice, but since losing his WEC debut, he’s scored 23 takedowns in four fights, successfully completing 74.1 percent of his tries. It was his wrestling that helped him win his two biggest fights, and we shouldn’t expect him to abandon it now. Keeping Johnson at the end of his leg kicks will help Cruz in that regard, along with his natural gifts.

The wrestling game will stalemate at times, leading this fight to be decided standing. As usual, Cruz’s flurries and pace will offer him an advantage there. If Johnson tries to be a counter-fighter, he’ll suffer the same fate as Faber and the rest, caught up in the numbers game. If he comes forward, his chances are better, but crossing the distance will leave him open to counters. Johnson is going to have his moments, but fighting from range is Cruz’s specialty, and that’s where most of this fight will be decided. Cruz via decision.

 

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