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UFC 146 Shakeup: Is the New Heavyweight Lineup Better, Worse, or Much Worse?

(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)

As Danga pointed out yesterday, injuries and surprise drug tests have led to all five of UFC 146‘s main card bouts being altered since they were first announced, which puts “Dos Santos vs. Mir” right up there with MMA’s most cursed events of all time. But let’s be fair — the UFC originally promised us ten aggressive heavyweights bashing the hell out of each other, and they’re still giving us just that. So is UFC 146 a rag-tag bunch of scab-fights, or a compelling lineup in itself? Let’s break it down…

Original main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem
Current main event: Junior dos Santos vs. Frank Mir
Advantage: Even. Luckily, our schizophrenic contributor Josh Hutchinson has already presented both sides of this issue, and I’m leaning towards the idea that Mir as a main-event replacement isn’t a total disaster. At first, we had the two best heavyweight strikers in MMA slugging it out for supremacy. Now, we have…well, who knows? Mir’s brilliant ground game opens up a whole new set of outcomes for this one. And isn’t MMA at its best when it’s chaotic and unpredictable? (I know, some of you just watch for the big muscles, but I’m a true fan, okay bro?)

Original co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Frank Mir
Current co-main event: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva
Advantage: Original. And I only say that because Velasquez vs. Mir felt like less of a squash match. Bigfoot really could have used a softer landing in the Octagon; making his UFC debut in a pay-per-view co-main event against a juggernaut ex-champ like Velasquez smells like serious trouble for the Brazilian, who already failed a chin-test against Daniel Cormier in September.

(Let’s be honest, you’d pay to watch these three knuckleheads do *anything*.)

Original main card bout #3: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva
Current main card bout #3: Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman
Advantage: Original. See above; Nelson vs. Silva made a lot of sense as a matchup, and I was looking forward to it. Plus, after his February loss to Stefan Struve, I’m not sold on Dave Herman as main-card material.

Original main card bout #2: Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shane Del Rosario
Current main card bout #2: Stipe Miocic vs. Shane Del Rosario
Advantage: Current. Unless you’re a big Gabe Gonzaga fan (?), this match just became a lot more relevant. Miocic and Del Rosario are both undefeated up-and-comers with a combined finishing ratio of 94.7%, and the winner of this fight follows in the footsteps of Travis Browne and Lavar Johnson as the hot-shot heavyweight prospect to watch. Personally, I think Miocic is going to emerge from this one as a rising star.

Original main card bout #1: Stefan Struve vs. Mark Hunt
Current main card bout #1: Stefan Struve vs. Lavar Johnson
Advantage: Even. Look, I’m almost as depressed about Mark Hunt’s injury as Mark Hunt is. Plus, if I’m not mistaken, Struve vs. Hunt represented the greatest height differential in UFC history (13 inches!), which would have been awesome to see, just on an anthropological level. But I think we’re simply replacing one awesome Cinderella story (Hunt’s) with another just-as-good one (Johnson’s). Johnson came to the UFC riding back-to-back losses in Strikeforce, which followed nearly getting shot to death. Few expected him to make an impact in the UFC — and yet he’s already scored first-round knockouts of Joey Beltran and Pat Barry, picking up $130,000 in bonus money in the process. Now he’s re-entering the cage with just a three-week layoff between the Barry fight and this one. Do you believe in miracles?

Final analysis: If the original card was a 9 out of 10, the current card is at least a strong 7.5. Yes, we lost Alistair Overeem, and yes, we gained Dave Herman. But in terms of entertainment value, UFC 146 hasn’t given up a whole lot. Agree or disagree? (Sorry Hutchinson, you can’t do both…)

–BG

Frank Mir Says He’ll Strike with Junior Dos Santos. He Won’t Do It.

For all the talk of Chael Sonnen being the best in the world at building up fights—and rightly so, because Sonnen certainly is awesome at that aspect of the business—there’s one guy who often gets overlooked when it comes to the ability to …

If we ranked the top 10 guys in the world when it comes to the ability to create interest in fights, Frank Mir would be near the top of the list. He’s a highly intelligent and well-read fighter, and that gives him a different kind of vibe.

Witness his second bout with Brock Lesnar. Lesnar, ever the WWE-style showman, did a lot of red-faced promos discussing his desire to hurt Mir and get revenge for Mir beating him in his UFC debut. Mir, by contrast, was quiet and thoughtful, giving intelligent responses to everything Lesnar had to say.

But Mir did it all with a slight smirk, as if he knew something the world couldn’t fathom. That smirk did one of two things to MMA fans: It infuriated them, or it made them fall even more in Mir’s corner. In the end, the rematch with Lesnar was the biggest fight in the history of the UFC, and by a significant margin.

Mir is making the media rounds to hype his UFC 146 title fight with champion Junior dos Santos, and he’s doing what he does best: saying things that don’t make a ton of sense, but make you all the more interested in seeing his upcoming fight unfold.

Do you have to get dos Santos to the ground or can you stand up with him?

I’m going to go ahead and strike with him, probably more than Carwin wanted to and some of these other guys and try to lull him into lowering his striking defense. If I get him into a rhythm where it’s a boxing match, it will be easier to shoot or take him down. If you are shooting right off the bat and are grabbing a leg and that person’s waiting for it, it’s like any combat tactic. It’s very easy to stop what you are expecting.

See what I mean? That’s nonsense. And the beauty of the comment is that we all realize Frank is a very intelligent fighter. He’s one of the smartest guys on the UFC roster.

So of course, it’s nonsense, because Mir knows and understands that every single person who tries to stand up with Dos Santos ends up being punished in a bad way. Mir’s best path to victory goes through the grappling game, and standing around trading strikes with Dos Santos is a sure way to get yourself knocked out, even if you’re only planning on doing it to set up a takedown.

I guarantee you that no part of Mir’s game plan involves him testing Junior’s striking game. It just won’t happen. But that’s the cool thing about Frank: He’ll say things like this to keep Junior on his toes, to keep him guessing when they’re finally in the cage together.

And more importantly, he’ll create more interest in the fight for those fans who were wanted to see Alistair Overeem get the title shot. That’s the genius of Frank Mir: He sticks around, always near the top, and always has a hook to keep you interested in seeing him fight.

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Antonio Silva Says Junior Dos Santos Has Good BJJ Skills

It’s going to be a classic striker-vs.-grappler matchup when UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos defends his title against former champion Frank Mir later this month at UFC 146.Or is it?Heading into the anticipated matchup between two of the mos…

It’s going to be a classic striker-vs.-grappler matchup when UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos defends his title against former champion Frank Mir later this month at UFC 146.

Or is it?

Heading into the anticipated matchup between two of the most dangerous heavyweights in the sport, many fans are expecting one of two things to happen—either JDS will knock out Mir, or he will fall into a submission like so many have before him, including his mentor Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira did last year.

Fellow Brazilian Antonio Silva, who will also be fighting on the card against Cain Velasquez, is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Judo and Karate, and believes JDS has the BJJ skills to back up his very impressive stand-up skills.

Silva told Tatame.com:

It’s complicated. (Nogueira and Mir) fought twice and unfortunately Mir won them both, but he shouldn’t take it personally because when you put your emotions in there it’s when you get off track…I’m sure he’s not taking this personally. After two, three rounds Mir will get frustrated and won’t handle it well.

Dos Santos carried a 13-1 record into his title fight last year, where he knocked out Velasquez to win the belt and improve his overall UFC record to 8-0 with five knockouts. His other victories include those over Fabricio Werdum, Shane Carwin, Roy Nelson and Gabriel Gonzaga.

Mir will enter the bout having gone 3-0 in his last three fights with wins over Nogueira, Mirko Cro Cop and Nelson.

One question fans might want to ask themselves is, will JDS make the same mistake Nogueira did if he drops Mir and goes in for the finish? It’s unlikely he will go for a submission, but it will be interesting to see if he tries to if he gets the chance.

Silva continued:

I’d say Cigano’s a brown or black belt at Jiu-Jitsu, absolutely…He’s very good, fast, versatile and doesn’t get stuck on the positions, he can move fast and stand-up quickly. He’s on a good moment of his career. Every time he’s in Rio he trains much Jiu-Jitsu. Because he knocks many guys out people start thinking he’s just good at that.

The pay-per-view event will go down May 26 in Las Vegas. Other main-card matchups include Roy Nelson vs. Dave Herman, Shane del Rosario vs. Stipe Miocic and Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve.

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Don’t Bury Frank Mir Just Yet

The prevailing opinion about Frank Mir’s chances against Junior Dos Santos is that he’s going to get smashed; plain and simple, cut and dried. It’s about as absolute as a 15th Century papal decree. Even the bookmakers think so, listin…

The prevailing opinion about Frank Mir’s chances against Junior Dos Santos is that he’s going to get smashed; plain and simple, cut and dried. It’s about as absolute as a 15^th Century papal decree.

Even the bookmakers think so, listing Dos Santos as a huge favorite at -550 to Mir’s +350.

But let’s not go digging Mir’s grave just yet.

Mir has been doing his thing in the Octagon for over a decade. He’s faced the best guys and compiled a UFC record of 14-5 in the process. He’s a two-time UFC heavyweight champion. Basically, the dude can scrap.

Sure, Mir is going up against a monster in Dos Santos. The Brazilian slugger is the best boxer the heavyweight division has ever seen, and so far he’s been nearly impossible to take down, let alone keep down.

But lest we forget, Frank Mir is a bonafide bone breaker. This guy grabs a limb and applies merciless torque. He snapped Tim Sylvia’s forearm in half, and tweaked Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira’s arm back to a nauseating degree, again for the snap.

This is not a guy you want to be rolling around on the mat with. No one in the heavyweight division should want to. Mir has a lethal combination of technique and power that you just don’t often see, especially among heavyweights.

He’s a power submission fighter. His technique is good enough to gain the advantageous position, and his crushing power bats clean-up to finish the job. And he has the limbs hanging from his mantel to prove it.

Mir has a tall order in front of him. He’ll need to somehow get Dos Santos to the ground. That will not be easy. He’s not a good enough wrestler to take Dos Santos down with a straight up shot, and he’s going to get tooled on the feet.

But, if – and yes that is a big if, but if Mir can manage to get the fight to the ground, whether he can land a clean shot to rock Dos Santos, or if there’s a scramble and he ends up in top position, then he has a great chance.

Undoubtedly, Dos Santos is a very competent grappler. He’s a brown belt under the Nogueira brothers, but as Mir proved when he snapped Big Nog’s arm, he has few peers on the ground.

More than likely Frank Mir is going to take the beating at UFC 146 that mostly all MMA fans believe he will. But Mir is a warrior, and such a warrior should never be so easily discounted.

In 19 UFC fights, Mir has gone to a decision only twice. It’s kill or be killed with Frank Mir. And at UFC 146 it will be no different.

He will either get knocked out within two rounds or take home a third limb to complete his disturbed mantle motif.

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UFC 146: Ranking the Dominance of the Past Seven Heavyweight Champs

Junior Dos Santos has yet to encounter trouble in the UFC. The towering Brazilian has utilized his boxing, and little else, to dispatch his eight UFC foes with ease. His punching proficiency shines in the octagon. Junior comes into his May 26 cham…

Junior comes into his May 26 championship bout with Frank Mir as the strong favorite. His betting line is listed at -550 on 5dimes.com, meaning a risk of $550 on Junior will win the wagerer only $100.

Unlike many of his peers, Dos Santos is almost unanimously liked. The gentle giant defuses trash talkers with his disarming demeanor and sweetness, a contrast to some of his fellow UFC champs; polarizing characters like Jon Jones and Anderson Silva.

With his sparkling track record in mind, many are hailing Dos Santos as the man to clean out the division, just as many thought Cain Velasquez would do the same.

In fact, many thought Brock Lesnar would hold the belt for a long time, too.

See a trend?

One thing that UFC history has taught us is that the heavyweight belt tends to get around. The coveted gold has yet to be defended more than three times by the same man, and no more than two times consecutively. The heavyweight division has yet to see a true “dominator”.

“Dominance” is a word we like to associate with fighters. Who’s the most dominant heavyweight champ of all time? Given how often the strap changes waists, can the word “dominant” really be used to describe any UFC heavyweight champion?

Sure it can.

Here’s a ranking of the past seven UFC heavyweight champs based on their “dominance” in the UFC.

Quantifying “dominance” is subjective. Since no heavyweight has an outstanding number of title defenses, title defenses aren’t the most important variable here.

Begin Slideshow

Video: ‘UFC Primetime–Dos Santos vs Mir’ Episode 1

(Video via IronForgesIron.com)

It’s not the match we were promised, but it’s the one we’re going to watch. We’re only weeks away from UFC 146 and the heavyweight title bout between Junior Dos Santos and Frank Mir. In addition to the twelve pounds of gold at stake, we are witnessing a former champion’s quest to return to the top of his division and the familiar story arc of redemption and payback for a fallen master. There’s also a shooting range and lots of big guns. Whichever strikes your fancy, this Primetime comes correct.

Things open up with Junior Dos Santos’ mentor, Big Nog, showing up at his gym in Salvador, Brazil. The surprise appearance provides an emotional boost to the young champion.

“It wasn’t pain. I was very disappointed.” – Big Nog, on having his arm snapped by Frank Mir. It’s easy to write this off as a mistranslation, but English or Portuguese, it doesn’t matter; Minotauro doesn’t know the definition of pain in any language.

More highlights after the jump.

(Video via IronForgesIron.com)

Things open up with Junior Dos Santos’ mentor, Big Nog, showing up at his gym in Salvador, Brazil. The surprise appearance provides an emotional boost to the young champion.

“I don’t know why everybody worships this guy. His ground game is very simple. It’s only his attacks that are a little dangerous.” – Big Nog, telling Junior Dos Santos that he has little to fear from Frank Mir. Later, he explained that cobras are only dangerous if they bite you and that fire only burns you when it’s hot.

“He’s not a man. He gives up. Against Shane Carwin, he pretended he was hurt. He’s full of it.” – Junior Dos Santos, questioning Mir’s heart. In Frank Mir’s defense, Carwin ‘pretended’ to hit him very, very hard.

“There’s no ego anymore. I could care less. It’s like, yeah, you’re tough. I’m tough. Everybody’s tough.” – Frank Mir, on his new attitude. I for one will miss the swagger and incredible self-confidence, but I guess I’ll just have to get used to the New Frank Mir, as I’m certain he won’t say anything cocky or over-the-top from this point on in his career.

“I have three kids, but I have two belts. So when I pass away and they have to divide it up I don’t want them to have an argument about who doesn’t get a belt, so I have to make sure that before I retire I get a third one so it makes that argument easy.” – Mir, on troubles in his household. Sure, that’s a unique problem for a family to have, but I’d like to see how things are settled in his house when Frank gets up to use the restroom and forgets to ‘call’ his seat.

Mir’s father, wife, and young kids maintain a strong presence at his gym, and they take precedence over his training partners. It sounds like his children are an incredible motivation, but when he’d potentially sacrifice aspects of his training for their play time I have to wonder if they’re a distraction at the gym as well. Still, it’s great to see him in the role of loving father. I only wish his twitter-loving step-son had been there to share his thoughts on this match up.

Back in Salvador, Brazil, Dos Santos is getting his props as the people’s champ.

“I was from a very poor family, so I didn’t have very good opportunities. I discovered a way for me to be bigger than I ever dreamed before.” – Dos Santos, on his climb to the top. Many people have found a way to be bigger than they’d ever dreamed; let’s just hope his way consists of acai smoothies and hard work.

“I feel that protecting yourself and protecting my family is the obligation of every father.” – Mir, shooting off some big guns at the firing range. Hey, we respect that kind of fire power.

“The one thing I possess is versatility. I always try to find a way to win. JDS has, I think, a great tool. I think his boxing is top notch, but whenever he’s seen obstacles in his fights he just keeps using the boxing. You’ve got to remember this is mixed martial arts; there’s more to this than just boxing.” – Mir, on his opponent’s weapons. Mir really hits the nail on the head here. He’s simply too versatile to lose to a ‘one-dimensional’ fighter.

“Every fight it seems like I’m almost doubted. The naysayers say I shouldn’t be there. Somehow I keep pulling out victories. I have the most wins out of any heavyweight in the division. I have the most submissions. I have all these accolades to prove that, hey, you know, I’m not just talking it, I’m backing it up.” – Mir, on his apparently unsung credentials. It’s good to see that the New Frank Mir hasn’t forgotten his accomplishments.

“JDS is a young guy. If I catch him in a hold and he taps, he lives to fight another day. If I catch him in a hold and he decides not to tap, that limb, is it ever going to be the same again? I have enough of a history about me now that if you get locked in a hold of mine and you choose not to tap, that’s something you’ve trained for for weeks coming up to and you’ve watched my videos and you’ve studied me…if you make that mistake that’s your fault, that’s not mine. What is your life going to be like afterwards? What is your career going to be like afterwards? I’m bigger and stronger. One wrong mistake and now he’s in trouble and has to tap or deal with the consequences.” – Mir, on torquing a limb beyond its breaking point. And just in time for the closing credits, it’s official: the Old Frank Mir is back!

– Chris Colemon